Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Questions for Spyder or anyone else who knows:
My runthrough has become more of a 'run into' due to Jokari failures and peak volume. The former I have dealt with using "hold until an appropriate signal for change appears on the fractal being traded' which would be a traverse. Does this seem reasonable?
The latter continues to ellude me because there are clear examples of peak volume where the % change in the slope of V3-2 is < the % change of the slope of V2-1. This could be a vendor artifact. There is also the issue of context. Near EOD today bars 72-74 would seem to fulfill the %slope acceleration component of the definition (67K -44K v 44K - 30K). Is this troika a peak volume troika which is then confirmed by a JW triplet as we move to the right?
Is the traverse signal for change, decreased Vy with increased V, rigorously binary? So if one saw a V = 10K/Vy = 5 points followed by a V = 10.1K/Vy = 4.9 points, then the signal for a traverse change is in play? If so what is the smallest increment for this condition to exist?
TIA
lj
My runthrough has become more of a 'run into' due to Jokari failures and peak volume. The former I have dealt with using "hold until an appropriate signal for change appears on the fractal being traded' which would be a traverse. Does this seem reasonable?
The latter continues to ellude me because there are clear examples of peak volume where the % change in the slope of V3-2 is < the % change of the slope of V2-1. This could be a vendor artifact. There is also the issue of context. Near EOD today bars 72-74 would seem to fulfill the %slope acceleration component of the definition (67K -44K v 44K - 30K). Is this troika a peak volume troika which is then confirmed by a JW triplet as we move to the right?
Is the traverse signal for change, decreased Vy with increased V, rigorously binary? So if one saw a V = 10K/Vy = 5 points followed by a V = 10.1K/Vy = 4.9 points, then the signal for a traverse change is in play? If so what is the smallest increment for this condition to exist?
TIA
lj
My first try at posting a chart annotated as the day went by.
My only channel is the burnt orange CO from Monday EOD.
My annotations aren't complete, but the recent discussions have finally helped me see the value of all Spyder's instructions. Especially the tapes > traverses > channels hierarchy.
Thanks to all involved here.
My only channel is the burnt orange CO from Monday EOD.
My annotations aren't complete, but the recent discussions have finally helped me see the value of all Spyder's instructions. Especially the tapes > traverses > channels hierarchy.
Thanks to all involved here.
ES DAILY CHART JULY 30 2008
Just speaking for myself.
Although the time and effort you spend to help others is extremely appreciated I prefer not to be mentioned as someone who made or is making money using this method, simply because I am not. I am still annotating with occasionally a simtrade.
Consistent profitability is taking longer than expected as a result of my own actions and mistakes (+ lack of screentime). This has nothing to do with the method on itself. I am completely convinced it is sound.
So making good progress but still some work to do. Hopefully I'll be able to pay forward soon, after I feel I have "earned" the right to do that and I can look back at the journey behind me in a more objective way.
regards,
Ivo
FWIW, I started work a couple hours after the open, caught up the annotations, and adjusted or added things in hindsight several times. The channel and the laterals were added very late.
Paper trades the way I logged them:
11:54 Long @ 75.0 on TL BO (FTT@11:35)
11:56 Exit @ 74.2 on FBO
12:10 Short @ 71.3 on Traverse Pt3 dn (FTT@10:45)
12:40 Early Exit @ 68.3 per Jokari Window ...or...
12:45 Better Exit @ 67.1 per Jokari Window ...or...
12:50 Better Exit @ 66.0 after spike dn to 64.2 ...or...
12:53 Stop Out @ 67.1 on trailing stop @ 67.0 ...or...
... if 67.0 stop were pulled...
13:09 Reversal @ 66.0 on FTT of all current traverses
13:31 Exit @ 68.1 on Pt3 dn of fanned main traverse.
Paper trades the way I logged them:
11:54 Long @ 75.0 on TL BO (FTT@11:35)
11:56 Exit @ 74.2 on FBO
12:10 Short @ 71.3 on Traverse Pt3 dn (FTT@10:45)
12:40 Early Exit @ 68.3 per Jokari Window ...or...
12:45 Better Exit @ 67.1 per Jokari Window ...or...
12:50 Better Exit @ 66.0 after spike dn to 64.2 ...or...
12:53 Stop Out @ 67.1 on trailing stop @ 67.0 ...or...
... if 67.0 stop were pulled...
13:09 Reversal @ 66.0 on FTT of all current traverses
13:31 Exit @ 68.1 on Pt3 dn of fanned main traverse.
Every time you post you pay forward. Someone, somewhere, takes something from it.
Thanks for all.
Actually you dont have to draw the Guassians if you know at the time how you're gonna draw them end of day. As the chart moves I make a mental note of how I'm seeing the Guassians with my traverses and they're drawn in end of day.... nothing changes from the time they developed. They'll look the same if I draw them at the end of the 5 minutes they develop or at the end of the day because of how I would have drawn them at the end of that 5 minutes.
Here's my hindsight chart....comments welcome
Everything seemed to go very orderly and smooth today up until Bar 12. I figured this bar is a pennant FBO, traverse level change. I reversed and managed to hold through the petroleum report somehow (probably not a good idea). Unfortunately I did not pin Bar 15 as an FBO of the first up traverse (atleast not until I saw everyones charts later in the day). The sequence of bars 14-17 really threw me off kilter, I guess Im not used to handling that much volume/IBGS at the same time, took a little while to get my bearings. Nothing like a 15 bar lateral to let you breathe and get back in synch =).
Unfortunately I had to miss the rest of the day, which is a bummer as it turned out to be a monster day. I was wondering how you guys handle laterals, or what your thought process is. I have noticed that they used to really trip me out, but now I am starting to get used to them and can sit patiently awaiting BO. I ascertain that is the only thing to do with them, especially if no useful tapes/traverses are forming in them. There doesnât seem to be any traverse level change signals that take place inside the lateral, save the obvious FBO/BO. I am thinking itâs a good idea to position yourself for the BO during the lateral .. IE: short near the top, long near the bottom. I have noticed it is hell sitting through a lateral when price can go ~ 2 pts in the opposite direction of your position and still be inside the lateral. Also this allows you to wait a few more ticks to reverse upon the BO/FBO and minimize the damage. Just my 2 cents, havenât experimented with this too much yet, obviously.
I have been trying to get myself through the learning curve here. Itâs easy to get caught up with wanting strict definitions and trying to fit every context/situation into a stringent ruleset with corresponding actions. I am going to simply do my thing, post some thoughts here and hopefully get into some meaningful, fruitful discussion with you guys. I would like to apologize to Spyder for repeatedly asking questions for which there is likely no answer. Itâs hard to take a step back and allow time for things to sink in, however I have come to realize thatâs the only way to progress. I am surprised I am not on ignore yet.. Sorry for the long post, Good trading to you all
Unfortunately I had to miss the rest of the day, which is a bummer as it turned out to be a monster day. I was wondering how you guys handle laterals, or what your thought process is. I have noticed that they used to really trip me out, but now I am starting to get used to them and can sit patiently awaiting BO. I ascertain that is the only thing to do with them, especially if no useful tapes/traverses are forming in them. There doesnât seem to be any traverse level change signals that take place inside the lateral, save the obvious FBO/BO. I am thinking itâs a good idea to position yourself for the BO during the lateral .. IE: short near the top, long near the bottom. I have noticed it is hell sitting through a lateral when price can go ~ 2 pts in the opposite direction of your position and still be inside the lateral. Also this allows you to wait a few more ticks to reverse upon the BO/FBO and minimize the damage. Just my 2 cents, havenât experimented with this too much yet, obviously.
I have been trying to get myself through the learning curve here. Itâs easy to get caught up with wanting strict definitions and trying to fit every context/situation into a stringent ruleset with corresponding actions. I am going to simply do my thing, post some thoughts here and hopefully get into some meaningful, fruitful discussion with you guys. I would like to apologize to Spyder for repeatedly asking questions for which there is likely no answer. Itâs hard to take a step back and allow time for things to sink in, however I have come to realize thatâs the only way to progress. I am surprised I am not on ignore yet.. Sorry for the long post, Good trading to you all