Iterative Refinement

Quote from Padawan:

ES 1035 peak volume, ftt, spike bar/change/reverse long

Great, this is definitely one of the first things that must be considered with this bar. The ES shows us coming out of a retrace and heading back down on spike peak level volume, then closing well off its lows (in fact it closes back within the shadow of the 10:25 bar). If I'm only looking at the ES for my signals, this is a change signal that would be hard to ignore.

The 10:32 YM bar makes the spike, peak level volume even more clear. As an aside, note that this bar is also a BO of a Lateral Formation. What is different about the context here that makes needing to see more increasing volume following a Lateral BO not really relevant to our decision process?

In addition to looking for signs of change, we need to consider reasons to hold. Bi9foot pointed out that we had not had a flaw or VE something we want to keep in mind. Also, the 10:34 YM bar, which provides a signal for change by not continuing down on increasing volume, also has flaw like volume levels letting us know that this change might be short lived and better to hold through. However, there is an additional context provided by the YM that gives even a stronger reason to hold. What about how we entered into the 10:32 YM bar would change how we view price movement in this bar (thereby changing our expectations)?

-A
 
Quote from dkm:

ES 20080521

FWIW, this is where I saw change. There are a number of errors because I am getting very confused about whether or not pt3 has occurred and whether or not I should be holding. Sometimes it seems to be on a tape, sometimes a chubby tape, sometimes a pt3 channel. One thing is crystal clear. I am not seeing continuation/change on a bar by bar basis consistently. :(

Thanks David,

Your viewpoint and efforts are a great help to me. And I would say that you are seeing far more than you give yourself credit for.
 
Quote from guavaman:

Yellow text are the manifestly incorrect analysis.

Many thanks as well---these types of posts have helped me to begin to grasp the flow of the market and its signals. As to the "incorrect" part---if we had it down to perfection we would be bored out of our minds and then miss the signals anyway.:D
Thanks
 
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