Iterative Refinement

Hi Atari,

My attempt-

ES 1035 peak volume, ftt, spike bar/change/reverse long

YM 1034 fbp w/decreasing volume, WMCN didn’t (needed more IRV), ftt, previous bar peak
volume/change/reverse long


ES 1040 decreasing volume, fbp (lookout for tendency to break down)/continue/hold long

YM 1040 price struggles to improve on IBV compared to previous bar, all within lat formation /change/reverse short (so reverse short on ES as well)


ES 1045 sym pennant within lat formation, decreasing volume throughout the lat formation/continue/hold short

YM 1044 lat formation, sym pennant decreasing volume (subsequent to another ‘get short’ signal, IBGS v+)/continue/hold short
 
ES Daily Chart May / 21 / 2008


Daily bar made a LL and a LH on increasing volume, and increased volatility.

This bar also closed near its lows and B/O of the uptrend in place.

The volume today was the highest volume since back in March.
 

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Got short UDRL today. Looking good right now. Saw a pt 1,2,3 channel on the thirty after a BO. Still holding short from 19.80.

Comments welcome.
 

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Quote from Atari:

A great Lateral Formation (beginning 10:35 bar) to test knowledge of context and sequencing.
-A
More...

I was holding short from 1416 so I will describe my thought process as the bars unfolded.


10:35 bars closes well off it lows. YM 10:32 shows peak volume. Change however we don't have a flaw or VE to look for an FTT so hold short

10:40 bar is a inside bar view it as Left to right traverse for a steeper pt 3. The 10:36 YM bar is a Pennant FBO in decreasing volume confirming lateral movement. 10:38 YM bar is a FBO down on increasing vol (also confirming long direction supporting pt 2 -> pt 3 of down channel. 10:40 YM bar confirms a pt 3 up channel. Still haven't had a point 3 down yet (hold short)

10:45 ES bar is an inside bar confirming LTR movement (hold short). YM 10:42/10:44 bars form a pennant confirming L->R movement.
 
NOTE: all times begining of bar and EST (add 5 for bar closing view)


SHORT position


ES 10:45
- decreasing red volume (above Flaw level) => change
- SYM BO on decreasing volume => wait
- LF BO on decreasing volume => wait

YM 10:46
- decreasing red volume => change
- LF FBO => wait

YM 10:48
- increasing red volume => CONTINUATION


ES 10:50
- increasing red volume => CONTINUATION


ES 10:55
- VE
- decreasing red volume ~50% of previous bar => wait (may be flaw = change on a lower fractal)
- price closes inside previous bar: LM => wait

YM 10:56
- pennant on decreaing red volume => wait

YM 10:58
- OB with increasing red volume => CONTINUATION


ES 11:00
- bar bounces from VE LTL
- IBGS on increasing red volume (on cancels other) => wait
- bar closes inside LM => wait

YM 11:00
- decreasing red volume => change
- bar closes inside LM => wait

YM 11:02
- IBGS on increasing red volume (on cancels other) => wait
- bar closes inside LM => wait

YM 11:04 (first minute)
- price went up on decreasing black volume then headed down on increasing red volume => CONTINUATION


ES 11:05
- bar bounces from VE LTL
- decreasing red volume (above Flaw level) => change
- bar closes inside LM => wait

YM 11:06
- decreasing red volume => change
- bar closes inside LM => wait

YM 11:08
- decreasing red volume => change
- LM FBO => CHANGE (confirms ES' CHANGE signal)
Quote from Spydertrader:

Before anyone decides to post the question ....

When looking at the ES 5 minute chart today, we see the following ...

(All times Eastern and close of bar)

10:50 - Change
10:55 - Continuation
11:00 - Change
11:05 - Change
11:10 - Change

At the times listed above, what did the YM say?

Therefore, what action was required?

- Spydertrader

P.S. Also, why does the ES provide the signals listed?
More...
 

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ES chart. The discussions have been really fantastic. I just need to drill the lessons into the brain. Thank you so much, everyone. While I'm not quite there yet, the fog is clearing each day and it's exciting.
 

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Quote from Spydertrader:

Before anyone decides to post the question ....

When looking at the ES 5 minute chart today, we see the following ...

(All times Eastern and close of bar)

10:50 - Change
10:55 - Continuation
11:00 - Change
11:05 - Change
11:10 - Change

At the times listed above, what did the YM say?

Therefore, what action was required?

- Spydertrader

P.S. Also, why does the ES provide the signals listed?
More...

My take:

10:50 - ES lat BO in DBV = Change; YM IRV = Continue; Hold Short

10:55 - ES IRV Continue; YM lat continue;, Hold Short

11:00 - ES VE on DRV, Change; YM FBO on IRV (change), but forms new p3, Continue; Hold Short

11:05 ES IBGS IRV, Change; YM IBGS IRV change; Reverse Long (we would have seen one minute of the next bar too, which may have made a difference)

11:10 ES DRV, Change; YM DRV, dec range, Change; Hold Long
 
Today's eurodollar trade. The 6 o clock bar was first increasing black indicating the trend had changed from down to up (in other words a point 2-->3 move was out of the picture). This could only be changed if that same bar turned into a spike bar which it did. Needless to say all this went very fast but it's easy to be fast when you're prepared.

regards,
Ivo

p.s. took 2 washes before that just to be complete.
 

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