ES
Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
YM
Chart for today.
The discussions here of late have been very interesting but also a little intimidating. There's no chance I could keep the level of concentration necessary to make do that kind of 'M' and 'A' (and 'D') at my current level of understanding :eek: . I'm just starting to notice them trees in that forest. Can't see the leaves, much less the bugs.
Oh well. Today was very orderly considering it was a FED day. No real fireworks.
The discussions here of late have been very interesting but also a little intimidating. There's no chance I could keep the level of concentration necessary to make do that kind of 'M' and 'A' (and 'D') at my current level of understanding :eek: . I'm just starting to notice them trees in that forest. Can't see the leaves, much less the bugs.
Oh well. Today was very orderly considering it was a FED day. No real fireworks.
ES 20080521
FWIW, this is where I saw change. There are a number of errors because I am getting very confused about whether or not pt3 has occurred and whether or not I should be holding. Sometimes it seems to be on a tape, sometimes a chubby tape, sometimes a pt3 channel. One thing is crystal clear. I am not seeing continuation/change on a bar by bar basis consistently.
FWIW, this is where I saw change. There are a number of errors because I am getting very confused about whether or not pt3 has occurred and whether or not I should be holding. Sometimes it seems to be on a tape, sometimes a chubby tape, sometimes a pt3 channel. One thing is crystal clear. I am not seeing continuation/change on a bar by bar basis consistently.
I am truly struggling with this, and if I'm just being a total bonehead please feel free to ignore this. I am giving the best effort I know how....
Regarding the bars 11:00 to 11:10 today. In the ES change/continuation list you posted, my thoughts matched yours; so no problem. If I was only watching ES, my understanding is that the 11:05 bar was the bar to reverse on.
But, when I look at the YM, in every available instance, the YM's most recent available close was inside something (ie either lateral formation or lateral movement), so my understanding was that at the coarsest level this is read as hold short.
In particular, when the ES 11:05 closed, the YM showed lateral movement in a down channel. I took this to mean hold.
Thank you for indulging me.
Here is how I saw this period on YM.
White channel broken on decr. volume.
two bars in a row decreasing red. 11:06 and 11:08 Decreasing red while making new lows in the channel. We have anticipation of change because price can only go down in a downtrend on increasing volume, not on decreasing volume. Ready to pull the trigger.
Next bar = change. 11:10. Increasing black.
regards,
Ivo
<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1930031">
White channel broken on decr. volume.
two bars in a row decreasing red. 11:06 and 11:08 Decreasing red while making new lows in the channel. We have anticipation of change because price can only go down in a downtrend on increasing volume, not on decreasing volume. Ready to pull the trigger.
Next bar = change. 11:10. Increasing black.
regards,
Ivo
<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1930031">
Look again (closely) at the 11:04 [all times Eastern and close of] YM Bar. What do you 'see' with this specific YM bar? Does this bar not fall within the 11:05 [close of] ES bar?
- Spydertrader