RTL up ??
implying price (which moved up) reached a long term RTL up from underneath? I can't picture it - to what RTL do you refer?
Thanks!
Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
implying price (which moved up) reached a long term RTL up from underneath? I can't picture it - to what RTL do you refer?
Thanks!
Here is today's work. Starting to see stuff earlier if I keep my brain out of the equation.
Please note the red triangle. I'm tickled pink to report that I could actually see the pace accelerate upwards before the bar became "outside".
Some of these things I've seen for a long time, but something has kept me from trusting what I see. Go figure.
Please note the red triangle. I'm tickled pink to report that I could actually see the pace accelerate upwards before the bar became "outside".
Some of these things I've seen for a long time, but something has kept me from trusting what I see. Go figure.
Oops, I just realized I did it again- switched resolution on my gaussians. Just wanted to point it out for anyone trying to learn from the posted charts. Don't use mine!
My understanding is that if price exits the channel on decreasing volume the market just told us that the channel we have is incorrect. This morning the first channel of the day with pt3 on bar 4 was presumed correct until the close of bar 6 when we have BO on decreasing volume. I suspect this is referred to as channel not being supported by gaussians. For every RTL (of valid channel) BO there is a corresponding X\/X gaussian - I am pretty sure about that part.
Also the forth channel with pt3 marked on your 1000 bar - pt3 has to be on RTL always, which is why I could not draw a channel there. To me the only way geometrically accommodate those bars is to have a chubby tape with pt3 on your 0950 bar.
LOL, cnms2, I still don't know which points (bars).
Could you draw a picture?
Thank you...
Spyder,
OK.... I've been thinking through a few things and I have a few lessons I think I may have learned.
1) ABout the TGIC trade. I think there are two things to learn about that. First, and most importantly, I skipped over M and A and went straight to DA. I was not really monitering that stock, and instead of calming down and taking a look at its daily and 5 min chart, I just jumped aboard the train wreck. It is better to make no entry on a position, however good it may be, if the equity has not been monitored and analyzed. I really had no idea what what going on. Second, the importance of trading trend, and not anamolous spikes. This is related to the first point. Volatility like that 10:30 spike are not tradable moments. There's too much "noise" to properly analyze the data. If one is to trade, one needs a trend to KNOW where one stands. If one does not know trend, one cannot know the answer as to whether the current signals mean change or continuation.
2. As far as the issue goes with the early exit from CALM.... Tell me if I am way off, but I think it has to do with what fractal I am trading. The primary source for my Monitoring and Analysis is the daily fractal. This means that MOST of my trading decisions need to be made based upon examining that chart. Does this mean I should never look at the 5 or 30 minute chart? Of course not. It's a matter of what kind of weight we give that fractal in making decisions. If that fractal shows a significant enough pattern change to affect the daily fractal, then we make a decision. (5% loss was a starter point given in the first journal.)In the example of CALM, there had not been a significant volume change or loss in percentage of value to suggest a change in pattern. I have also found it useful in making better entry points into positions and sniffing out false daily signals (yesterdays ANW was a good example of this... ALMOST got me
) The question of HOW much weight the shorter fractals should be given is something I am learning through experience. If there is some "formula" I should know, then I hope someone can share it with me. Other than that, it sees like this is just something I am going to need to learn over time. 3) Watch out for earning reports.... then again, I knew that already
.4)My last "lesson" I can see right now (maybe there are more) has to do with JASO. The earnings report resulted in a pretrading spike in price, then a rather large drop. Since then... well... it has been serving me quite well the past two days. But why did I hold onto it? What made this different than the EHTH earnings report what that equity never really bounced back from? All I can say is that when I looked at the daily chart, (attached) it looked like last Thursday there was a FTT (with the corrected Black Bars). I saw that Friday, and entered into the stock which then seemed to break through the trend line. Though the earnings report took away almost all my initial gains, The stock did not necessarily show a rentry into the channel or a new downward trend... this was a spike, much like the one that fooled me the opposite way into ENTRY with TGIC. However, I held through this one, because the earnings report was good, and an upward trend had been established by the FTT and the subsequent strong black bar. Again, the lesson learned is to M and A, and then to decide and Act. I KNEW a new trend had begun, and that trend had not necessarily been broken (I would have exited on another strong red showing). So the market was telling me to HOLD, but watch carefully.
Anyway, any comments are appreciated. If I have desperately misunderstood anything, PLEASE let me know. Thanks all!!
JF
While your review touches on several factors which are not 'out of line' with the intent of my post, you need to think bigger picture - focusing on the 'D' and 'A' - and why you arrived at these decisions which initiated the specific actions. No need to break it down by individual equities. Think, continuation or change for 'D' and Buy, Sell, hold, Reverse or Exit for the 'A' portion of your review.
- Spydertrader