Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Aha! During bar 8 ES, the 1008 bar (close of) on YM is IBGS.
Here is my attempt of the first A of MADA:
Bar 8 ES closes inside the range of the previous bar indicating a lateral movement
Bar 9 ES closes inside the range of the previous bar and went lower on decreasing red volume making it a lateral movement also
Bar 10 ES begin traveling higher on dercreasing black PRV indicating a start of non dominant traverse ( retrace)
Bar 11 ES travels higher on decreasing black volume indicating a continuation of non dominant traverse ( retrace). Price travelling higher on decreasing volume suggest anticipating change.
Bar 12 ES is IBGS indicating change took place. If this is the end of non dominant traverse ( retrace) and pt3 of the down channel, we should see increasing red next, as price resumes the dominant direction.
Bar 13 ES forms SYM instead indicating no change.
Bar 14 ES fails to break out SYM on increasing black volume indicating no change, but increasing black volume suggests if we donât see any increasing red soon, start thinking new pt3 up.
Bar 15 ES forms IBGS on increasing red volume indicating change resumption of the dominant movement and we have a pt3 down
Bar 16 travels lower on increasing red volume indicating continuation.
Bar 17 improving price on decreased dominant volume indicates change
Bar 18 forms FBP
Bar 19 fails to break out of FBP on increased dominant volume also failing to reach LTL
Bar 20 starts moving back to RTL on decreased black volume confirming FTT on previous bar.
Bar 21 continues the retrace on increasing non dominant volume indicating continuation
Bar 22 forms IBGS indicating change and possible FBO of the RTL
Bar 23 travels lower on decreasing dominant volume in a down channel indicating lateral movement. I can not eliminate the possibility of RTL BO just yet.
Bar 24 red volume kicks in and we continue with dominant traverse
I would appreciate any feedback if reasoning or logic above is incorrect.
ES
YM
So if I had entered long (hypothetically) on bar 1 based on a fact that it is an FTT of the carry over channel (based on ticktradeâs chart), then the next bar 2 would make me anticipate change because it went lower on decreasing volume.
Bar 3 going lower on decreasing volume and closing outside RTL of CO channel (based on ticktradeâs chart http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-05-13/es.png
), would still keep me anticipating change.
Bar 4 closing inside the previous bar range makes it a lateral movement and no change and also invalidates the CO channel breaking out on decreaing volume.
Bar 5 going lower on increased red volume means continuation.
Bar 6 going lower and closing inside the previous bar range on decreased volume would make me anticipate change
Bar 7 representing a lateral movement indicates no change
Sorry about posting it out of order.
Also, involving YM in the analysis part is a concept that is foggy for me right now. If one trades on tree level resolution, (meaning entering on FTT, reversing on FBO or on FTT in the opposite direction after pt3 channel in the opposite direction is formed), then it is not clear to me how YM should be involved in the Analysis part of MADA if we restrict ourselves from looking at YM except at certain points where it is permitted. I donât understand how one can refer to YM bar after bar if the purpose of analysis at the tree resolution level is to determine change or continuation at the close of the bar for the purposes of anticipation.
My understanding so far is that the use of YM is limited to points where one anticipate to take action, i.e. during this morning after pt3 channel is formed by the close of 1045 bar and I am on look out for FTT the only time I am permitted to look at YM is when ES is inside FBP and on LTL. YM at those time shows either forming or formed SYM, so I take my clue from ES PRV to determine an FTT.
Bar 3 going lower on decreasing volume and closing outside RTL of CO channel (based on ticktradeâs chart http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-05-13/es.png
), would still keep me anticipating change.
Bar 4 closing inside the previous bar range makes it a lateral movement and no change and also invalidates the CO channel breaking out on decreaing volume.
Bar 5 going lower on increased red volume means continuation.
Bar 6 going lower and closing inside the previous bar range on decreased volume would make me anticipate change
Bar 7 representing a lateral movement indicates no change
Sorry about posting it out of order.
Also, involving YM in the analysis part is a concept that is foggy for me right now. If one trades on tree level resolution, (meaning entering on FTT, reversing on FBO or on FTT in the opposite direction after pt3 channel in the opposite direction is formed), then it is not clear to me how YM should be involved in the Analysis part of MADA if we restrict ourselves from looking at YM except at certain points where it is permitted. I donât understand how one can refer to YM bar after bar if the purpose of analysis at the tree resolution level is to determine change or continuation at the close of the bar for the purposes of anticipation.
My understanding so far is that the use of YM is limited to points where one anticipate to take action, i.e. during this morning after pt3 channel is formed by the close of 1045 bar and I am on look out for FTT the only time I am permitted to look at YM is when ES is inside FBP and on LTL. YM at those time shows either forming or formed SYM, so I take my clue from ES PRV to determine an FTT.
Well, todays positions all bore some fruit. 
If it were not for one stupid trade, and one position I gave up on, today would have been a banner day.
I'd like to just brag about how well today went, but instead I'll focus on the negative.
1. Today I hope to have finally learned my lesson about checking the 5 minute chart before making any purchases. I noticed around 10:30 that TGIC was positive and had exceeded DU. The market was going up in general at that moment, and in my excitement to open a new position I bought in. I looked literally a minute later, only to find that the price had dropped 10%. It all made sense when I looked at the daily chart. The reason I had missed the stock earlier was because it had been negative all morning. There had been a spike in buying right before I bought in, and then a spike in selling. I decided just to get out after a few minutes, since the volume was going away, and the stock wasn't going anywhere. I new it was a bad position and got out, unfortunately at a 10% loss.
2. My second mistake was getting out of a position too early. CALM was down all morning. It had tried to breach it's daily high (of even) at around 10:30, and then started a downward channel again. I got out of it, but kept the stock in qcharts all day to watch it for educational reasons. I had really liked the daily chart on it. Well, it was up 1.18 by the end of the day. I suppose that getting out about even is not bad, but it was still interesting how powerful the daily channel can be upon a stock, even when it is down half the day, and the market is down.
Other than that, my positions are as follows:
DRYS - +4.61%
JASO - +6.55 %
PSEM - +5.81 %
SOLF - +7.58%
TSL - -.61% (opened today)
VDSI - +3.38%
Most of these were bought in the last two days
JASO was purchased last Friday, on a banner day. I did not realize an earnings report was coming out on Monday. Well, it was a great report and..... the stock dropped like a stone to about even. I held it because it was still within its channel and, well, it was a good earnings report. I'll be watching it closely tomorrow.
Some of the above stocks did not reach FRV yesterday, but they were showing increasing black volume and were in pretty well defined channels, so I held them.
SOLF is another one to watch out for tomorrow. I believe it reached peak volume today.
Anyway, just some more reflections.
JF
P.S. Glad I got out of GIGM before the earnings report. Down two points today.
If it were not for one stupid trade, and one position I gave up on, today would have been a banner day.
I'd like to just brag about how well today went, but instead I'll focus on the negative.
1. Today I hope to have finally learned my lesson about checking the 5 minute chart before making any purchases. I noticed around 10:30 that TGIC was positive and had exceeded DU. The market was going up in general at that moment, and in my excitement to open a new position I bought in. I looked literally a minute later, only to find that the price had dropped 10%. It all made sense when I looked at the daily chart. The reason I had missed the stock earlier was because it had been negative all morning. There had been a spike in buying right before I bought in, and then a spike in selling. I decided just to get out after a few minutes, since the volume was going away, and the stock wasn't going anywhere. I new it was a bad position and got out, unfortunately at a 10% loss.
2. My second mistake was getting out of a position too early. CALM was down all morning. It had tried to breach it's daily high (of even) at around 10:30, and then started a downward channel again. I got out of it, but kept the stock in qcharts all day to watch it for educational reasons. I had really liked the daily chart on it. Well, it was up 1.18 by the end of the day. I suppose that getting out about even is not bad, but it was still interesting how powerful the daily channel can be upon a stock, even when it is down half the day, and the market is down.
Other than that, my positions are as follows:
DRYS - +4.61%
JASO - +6.55 %
PSEM - +5.81 %
SOLF - +7.58%
TSL - -.61% (opened today)
VDSI - +3.38%
Most of these were bought in the last two days
JASO was purchased last Friday, on a banner day. I did not realize an earnings report was coming out on Monday. Well, it was a great report and..... the stock dropped like a stone to about even. I held it because it was still within its channel and, well, it was a good earnings report. I'll be watching it closely tomorrow.
Some of the above stocks did not reach FRV yesterday, but they were showing increasing black volume and were in pretty well defined channels, so I held them.
SOLF is another one to watch out for tomorrow. I believe it reached peak volume today.
Anyway, just some more reflections.
JF
P.S. Glad I got out of GIGM before the earnings report. Down two points today.
Review your own post, and note the reflections. In the process, determine what lessons you have learned from these observations.
Your post contains more information than you think.
- Spydertrader