Iterative Refinement

Quote from Padawan:


Anyone have thoughts about what was happening around 12:40?

I couldn't monitor yesterday, but fwiw:

Overall, range is compressing and volume shrinking through lunch. Throughout this sequence there is no strong B volume (12:00 is an IB, and 12:10 is a strong rejection), so there doesn't seem much possibility of a good up move before some further move down.

Nevertheless, after the DU of R volume at 12:30, and the VDU at 12:50, I may have entered long on the 12:55 bar, anticipating continued incr B and an initial BO up to end the lunch hour. (I tend to anticipate too much, though....) I hope I would have been alert enough to reverse short or exit on the 1:00 bar as volume disappeared and movement stalled.
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

...

I can't see the bar in question on your chart, but if the 'retrace' involves Point Two to Point Three, then yes, holding through this specific retrace remains a good idea. If the area in Question does not involve Points Two and Three, then follow the signals for change.

- Spydertrader

Thanks, Spydertrader. Do you generally hold through 'Point 4' to 'Point 5' retraces, or do you act on change signals at that point?

No further questions, but an interesting detail:

The sequence involved was originally a very narrow down channel, pt 3 to pt 4 move that BO'd a lateral. The retrace moved back into the lateral and then BO'd the down channel.

When I look at it now that NT has redownloaded the data, it has become a tape FBO of a lateral. I probably wouldn't have traded it at all with my current rules - or if I had I would have been looking for quick point or two.

I guess this shows the importance of getting the overall context and the ebb and flow of the market rather than getting bogged in arbitrary details.

Thanks again-
palinuro
 
Quote from ivob:

Indeed the same logic applies at 2:10. We have a simple pennant breakout in the anticipated direction.

Had Gauva applied his logic then he would have gone long

Ivob,

I was already long from the close of the 13:55 bar. The IRV of the 14:10 did alert me that something was amiss, but I was slow to react which is why I posted the "Oops, pennant BO w/ IRV, reverse short" at the 14:15 bar.

Hope this helps.
 
Quote from ivob:

I completely fail to see how you can reach the conclusion: Increasing Black Volume on Pennant = change, reverse short, at that moment: the close of the inside bar.

Ivob,

Basically I anticipate the market to develop in certain ways and when it doesn't, or when WMCN doesn't, I interpret that as a signal for change.
 
Quote from palinuro:

Thanks, Spydertrader. Do you generally hold through 'Point 4' to 'Point 5' retraces, or do you act on change signals at that point?

Ask this question, and then, review the answer you quoted. I believe you already have the answer required for clarity.

- Spydertrader
 
Maybe those of you don't 'see' why Guavaman did what he did should spend some time reviewing both The ES and The YM during the periods in question, as well as, any subtle differences which exist during the two time periods.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

... subtle differences ...
Ok guys, when Spydertrader says this, it is a 'foot stomper'. In other words the context has changed. We've all heard that before right? And when the context changes, the answer changes.

So look at the first bar in question, it is a BO of a RTL whereas the second bar in question is a point three down. Two very different contexts and therefore, two very different 'D'ecisions and 'A'ctions.
 
Quote from Atari:

In light of recent discussion on this thread, I thought I would make a few suggestions. As has been pointed out, there is a lot of information and concepts involved with the Jack Hershey Method, which requires significant work on the part of each trader to build the knowledge necessary to successfully implement the trading method. Spydertrader has devoted a great deal of time to laying out a path (adding his own touches and improvements along the way) that leads to consistent improvement as it provides the necessary information in manageable quantities at the appropriate time. Spydertrader and others in this thread also provide freely of their time to share specific insights and answer questions.

Everyone who has learned this method has had to do it in the same manner - by reading the journals (and other linked materials) to familiarize themselves with the concepts and build a framework for using these concepts to eventually trade. It’s a lot to take in and inevitably we all have questions that require us to revisit certain parts of the journal from time to time. Many of us also take advantage of the ability to post our questions on the thread in hopes of receiving guidance with areas of difficulty. Many times we will get exactly what we were hoping for – an answer that immediately resolves our misunderstanding or difficulty with a certain area. However, increasingly as we progress into the more advanced concepts, we will also run into some other responses such as: “the answer to your question will be answered further along in the journal,” “you need to go back and read a certain area of the journal,” or a response in the form of a question that should lead you in the right direction.

Obviously these answers are not immediately satisfying, but don’t assume that others are trying to keep things from you or make it harder on you. In most cases, someone has a valid reason for providing you with this type of answer and it is for your benefit they did so. Maybe you have shown a basic understanding of a certain subject, but your question reflects that you now need to really dig in and study this subject and all its implications. Another possibility is that you are asking a question where the answer depends on the context – a direct answer could lead to you applying that answer to a context where the anticipated result has changed causing you to experience frustration and doubt down the road. Regardless of the reason, make the effort to go back and study the information provided, then go look at charts to confirm what you are learning. If you’re still having trouble, you will at least be able to come back and post a more informed question and receive further guidance.

That being the case, I would recommend that anyone reading this thread bookmark posts as they progress through the journals. You will save yourself a lot of time in the future when you need to go back and review certain things. If you have not done so to this point, I encourage you to go back and start building this reference database ASAP (you can speed this process up by just reviewing Spydertrader’s posts, he will have provided his input wherever the relevant discussion was occurring on certain topics). I also think it’s a good idea to find others at a comparable level to you and work through your problem areas together – you will learn faster this way.

On more than one occasion, Spydertrader has mentioned that what the successful traders of this method have in common is that they all started from the beginning and followed the process as laid out in the journal. Even if they made mistakes and got ahead of themselves, they took the time to go back and learn everything they needed to before progressing to the next stage. There are simpler trading strategies and systems out there that will allow one to become a profitable trader, but the effort to learn this method is rewarded by a knowledge of what information the market is providing you at all times.

-A

A Great Post Atari, Thanks.......
 
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