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Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
You could also see it as a high volume / low volatility bar, which is a sign of change.
Quote from guavaman:
Also you could say to yourself; "self what we have here is an inside bar/FTP with increasing black volume. This horse just doesn't seem right. Usually we have decreasing volume in these here situations. We sure don't expect this. Since the market is doling out something peculiar like this, something here is amiss. Therefore me, myself and I are going to expect change a commin'. Since the market was tryin' to go up, change meant down to moi.
That's the way I saw it pilgrim.
In light of recent discussion on this thread, I thought I would make a few suggestions. As has been pointed out, there is a lot of information and concepts involved with the Jack Hershey Method, which requires significant work on the part of each trader to build the knowledge necessary to successfully implement the trading method. Spydertrader has devoted a great deal of time to laying out a path (adding his own touches and improvements along the way) that leads to consistent improvement as it provides the necessary information in manageable quantities at the appropriate time. Spydertrader and others in this thread also provide freely of their time to share specific insights and answer questions.
Everyone who has learned this method has had to do it in the same manner - by reading the journals (and other linked materials) to familiarize themselves with the concepts and build a framework for using these concepts to eventually trade. Itâs a lot to take in and inevitably we all have questions that require us to revisit certain parts of the journal from time to time. Many of us also take advantage of the ability to post our questions on the thread in hopes of receiving guidance with areas of difficulty. Many times we will get exactly what we were hoping for â an answer that immediately resolves our misunderstanding or difficulty with a certain area. However, increasingly as we progress into the more advanced concepts, we will also run into some other responses such as: âthe answer to your question will be answered further along in the journal,â âyou need to go back and read a certain area of the journal,â or a response in the form of a question that should lead you in the right direction.
Obviously these answers are not immediately satisfying, but donât assume that others are trying to keep things from you or make it harder on you. In most cases, someone has a valid reason for providing you with this type of answer and it is for your benefit they did so. Maybe you have shown a basic understanding of a certain subject, but your question reflects that you now need to really dig in and study this subject and all its implications. Another possibility is that you are asking a question where the answer depends on the context â a direct answer could lead to you applying that answer to a context where the anticipated result has changed causing you to experience frustration and doubt down the road. Regardless of the reason, make the effort to go back and study the information provided, then go look at charts to confirm what you are learning. If youâre still having trouble, you will at least be able to come back and post a more informed question and receive further guidance.
That being the case, I would recommend that anyone reading this thread bookmark posts as they progress through the journals. You will save yourself a lot of time in the future when you need to go back and review certain things. If you have not done so to this point, I encourage you to go back and start building this reference database ASAP (you can speed this process up by just reviewing Spydertraderâs posts, he will have provided his input wherever the relevant discussion was occurring on certain topics). I also think itâs a good idea to find others at a comparable level to you and work through your problem areas together â you will learn faster this way.
On more than one occasion, Spydertrader has mentioned that what the successful traders of this method have in common is that they all started from the beginning and followed the process as laid out in the journal. Even if they made mistakes and got ahead of themselves, they took the time to go back and learn everything they needed to before progressing to the next stage. There are simpler trading strategies and systems out there that will allow one to become a profitable trader, but the effort to learn this method is rewarded by a knowledge of what information the market is providing you at all times.
-A
Everyone who has learned this method has had to do it in the same manner - by reading the journals (and other linked materials) to familiarize themselves with the concepts and build a framework for using these concepts to eventually trade. Itâs a lot to take in and inevitably we all have questions that require us to revisit certain parts of the journal from time to time. Many of us also take advantage of the ability to post our questions on the thread in hopes of receiving guidance with areas of difficulty. Many times we will get exactly what we were hoping for â an answer that immediately resolves our misunderstanding or difficulty with a certain area. However, increasingly as we progress into the more advanced concepts, we will also run into some other responses such as: âthe answer to your question will be answered further along in the journal,â âyou need to go back and read a certain area of the journal,â or a response in the form of a question that should lead you in the right direction.
Obviously these answers are not immediately satisfying, but donât assume that others are trying to keep things from you or make it harder on you. In most cases, someone has a valid reason for providing you with this type of answer and it is for your benefit they did so. Maybe you have shown a basic understanding of a certain subject, but your question reflects that you now need to really dig in and study this subject and all its implications. Another possibility is that you are asking a question where the answer depends on the context â a direct answer could lead to you applying that answer to a context where the anticipated result has changed causing you to experience frustration and doubt down the road. Regardless of the reason, make the effort to go back and study the information provided, then go look at charts to confirm what you are learning. If youâre still having trouble, you will at least be able to come back and post a more informed question and receive further guidance.
That being the case, I would recommend that anyone reading this thread bookmark posts as they progress through the journals. You will save yourself a lot of time in the future when you need to go back and review certain things. If you have not done so to this point, I encourage you to go back and start building this reference database ASAP (you can speed this process up by just reviewing Spydertraderâs posts, he will have provided his input wherever the relevant discussion was occurring on certain topics). I also think itâs a good idea to find others at a comparable level to you and work through your problem areas together â you will learn faster this way.
On more than one occasion, Spydertrader has mentioned that what the successful traders of this method have in common is that they all started from the beginning and followed the process as laid out in the journal. Even if they made mistakes and got ahead of themselves, they took the time to go back and learn everything they needed to before progressing to the next stage. There are simpler trading strategies and systems out there that will allow one to become a profitable trader, but the effort to learn this method is rewarded by a knowledge of what information the market is providing you at all times.
-A
Actually the decreasing black PRV was a clear signal.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1913493>
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1913493>
Quote from guavaman:
Correctly put Talas. Although I summarized this thinking with 'something is amiss' the out of whack PV relationship going on was the underlying factor involved.
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I was also in GRRF from yesterday. Currently I'm cautious for change tomorrow. I remember long ago in the beginning of the Iterative Refinement forum, Haroki told me that when a bar does not reach the LTL, on an FTT as it seems here according to my daily chart(better seen on my 30 min fractal)(light blue channel) and there is decreasing black volume following an increase during an RTL traverse, it is a good indicator to get ready for change. Let the volume decide tomorrow though. If there's decreasing red volume back to the RTL be ready to reverse or sell. Thats my two cents.
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Quote from guavaman:
Also you could say to yourself; "self what we have here is an inside bar/FTP with increasing black volume. This horse just doesn't seem right. Usually we have decreasing volume in these here situations.
...
That was exactly what I thought. The context is a downchannel in a DU to VDU area. We know we get "change"/FTT's quickly in these areas.
Now what we have is a black inside bar on much higher volume than the first bar of the pennant. If something is not "right" in a downchannel then we must be long or not?
I completely fail to see how you can reach the conclusion: Increasing Black Volume on Pennant = change, reverse short, at that moment: the close of the inside bar.
If I see an inside bar like that I immediately expect price to break out of the top of the pennant on the same bar or the next one which in this case would have meant a RTL break. I have seen many examples of this, especially on YM.
Now failure to do so may obviously make you conclude: "okay, we are still in a downchannel, the increasing black inside bar did not mean change" but you don't know this until the close of the next bar.
If this pennant is a simple left to right traverse (meaning downchannel remains) you would expect the inside bar to be decreasing volume, not increasing.
So if the increasing volume inside bar would mean "change" in any way it would have been from short to long. That's just my opinion. (however, personally I would still wait for the pennant break but I would be on "long alert").
regards,
Ivo
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Thanks for this discussion. My thought process during that pennant was to anticipate a price BO going up. Price left the pennant in that direction, at first. Then we got an IBGS telling us that being long was no longer the right side.
Similarly, the anticipation on the 2:10 EST bar was that price would break the pennant down. We didn't get an IBGS this time saying "wrong side." Instead we got BO on increasing red volume followed by more increasing red volume.
Anyone have thoughts about what was happening around 12:40?
Similarly, the anticipation on the 2:10 EST bar was that price would break the pennant down. We didn't get an IBGS this time saying "wrong side." Instead we got BO on increasing red volume followed by more increasing red volume.
Anyone have thoughts about what was happening around 12:40?
That's exactly my thought process Padawan.
However, look where Gauva's arrow is: at the inside bar.
So my point is: How can you possibly draw the conclusion that long is no longer the right side even before that IBGS.
Indeed the same logic applies at 2:10. We have a simple pennant breakout in the anticipated direction.
Had Gauva applied his logic then he would have gone long and he would have put a note here :"Increasing red volume on Pennant = change, reverse long" at the close of that bar but he didn't.
Maybe this illustrates why his reasoning around 12:40 doesn't make sense to me at all.
regards,
Ivo
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However, look where Gauva's arrow is: at the inside bar.
So my point is: How can you possibly draw the conclusion that long is no longer the right side even before that IBGS.
Indeed the same logic applies at 2:10. We have a simple pennant breakout in the anticipated direction.
Had Gauva applied his logic then he would have gone long and he would have put a note here :"Increasing red volume on Pennant = change, reverse long" at the close of that bar but he didn't.
Maybe this illustrates why his reasoning around 12:40 doesn't make sense to me at all.
regards,
Ivo
Quote from Padawan:
Thanks for this discussion. My thought process during that pennant was to anticipate a price BO going up. Price left the pennant in that direction, at first. Then we got an IBGS telling us that being long was no longer the right side.
Similarly, the anticipation on the 2:10 EST bar was that price would break the pennant down. We didn't get an IBGS this time saying "wrong side." Instead we got BO on increasing red volume followed by more increasing red volume.
Anyone have thoughts about what was happening around 12:40?
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