Iterative Refinement

[nkhoi]

... , I can't see anything

Check the YM.

quiz: Have you ever seen this question & answer before? How many times?

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from Jander:

I believe he is referring to the following bar if Im not mistaken

OK, then the bar in question had increasing Volume and not 'Peak' Volume.

- Spydertrader

 

[romanus]

Quote from R/R:

I thought that bar 26 gave a very good clue as it attempted to BO the lower boundary and RTL on reduced volume only to spring back up and close higher than it's open. This same exact thing happened again on the next bar.

I operate under this definition of BO:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1387891&highlight=kaput#post1387891

Quote from Spydertrader:

Once Price breaks (by more than a tic or two) a RTL (right trend line) of a channel, that channel is over, done, finished - kaput

So without using YM, I see bar 26 as a BO, which tells me the channel is incorrect and fanning out is the next step. Bars 27 BO again. the market is moving laterally towards new pt3 which is only confirmed by increasing volume on bar 29.

 

[Jander]

Quote from Spydertrader:

OK, then the bar in question had increasing Volume and not 'Peak' Volume.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from Jander:

OK. I see now. I am guessing his (and your) charts label time differently than my own. Thanks for the clarification.

However, once again, the YM does provide the answer.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from romanus:

So without using YM, I see bar 26 as a BO, which tells me the channel is incorrect and fanning out is the next step. Bars 27 BO again. the market is moving laterally towards new pt3 which is only confirmed by increasing volume on bar 29.

Bar 26 is an FBO. It fails to remain outside of its formation and the RTL - returning to both. However, fanning does follow such an event.

- Spydertrader

 

[Jander]

Quote from Spydertrader:


However, once again, the YM does provide the answer.

- Spydertrader

Does it not provide 3 answers w/ varying outcomes? It could :

1] Signal FTT .. Bar 10 or 12, w/ Bar 10 being a more likely candidate due to volume

2] Be a forming dip (Bars 10-12)

3] Show lateral movement towards pt3 of a shallower down channel

Making a decision prior to 10:00 seems to involve guesswork to me...

 

[romanus]

Beginning with 11:30 ES finds itself in the formation (first FBP, then Lateral).

During this time YM provided 4 signals (see attached):

11:32 - new pt3 up channel (blue)
11:34 - FTT in the new pt3 up channel (blue)
11:36 - new pt3 down channel (green)
11:44 - FTT in the new pt3 down channel (green)

Are we suppose to act on all those 4 signals?

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from Jander:

Does it not provide 3 answers w/ varying outcomes?

The YM provides, but a single answer. We have a binary system here - continuation or change. The YM signals one or the other. It cannot signal both. When does the IBGS ever provide a signal for continuation?

Quote from Jander:

Making a decision prior to 10:00 seems to involve guesswork to me...

Then I suggest you review the differences between continuation and change. The market does not ever provide ambiguous signals. The trader, however, often misses the signals provided or misunderstands clarity, seeing instead - ambiguity.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from romanus:

Are we suppose to act on all those 4 signals?

When exactly are you permitted to make a decision with respect to the ES (at your current resolution level)? Answer this question, and you'll answer your own previously posted one.

- Spydertrader