Iterative Refinement

[ivob]

Chart for the morning.

At the current moment I am anticipating change. Decreased volume at previous bar and decreased volatility at the current bar.

One of my problems was 9:50 bar. I saw this as a flaw. The next bar the pennant was broken to the upside on decreasing volume so I held short there and expected change again somewhere at the upper border of the lateral. However, decreasing (black) volume is not something unusual in a downchannel after (real) change has happened. Actually it is something we can expect...

On next bar (10 o clock) the downchannel was broken on increasing volume so a point 3 up is logical which happened at 10:15. However, the 10:10 IBGS and outside bar surprised me somewhat. Of course this was just point 2 --> point 3 all in one bar.

regards,
Ivo

 

[Jander]

confusing sequence indeed... I remember that clearly without even looking at a chart LOL

 

[romanus]

The areas like the one in the blue box I tend to experience difficulties with.

VE marks change, followed by non dominant traverse on decreasing red volume.

Then lateral movement starts on bar 23.

Until bar 29 breaks out of lateral movement on increasing dominant ( black) volume, I can't see anything that would tell me that the non dominant traverse is over and we have FBO

Appreciate any comments.

Thanks

 

[LittleMac]

Got long JASO today. Stock is looking good with increasing black on the daily.

Comments appreciated.

 

[romanus]

Quote from R/R:

We need to use the information given by the bar at it's close.

I failed to follow this rule and arrived at an erroneous conclusion. Thank you, R/R.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from romanus:

Until bar 29 breaks out of lateral movement on increasing dominant ( black) volume, I can't see anything that would tell me that the non dominant traverse is over and we have FBO

Check the YM. 11:42 (All times Eastern) provides all the information one needs.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ivob:

I saw this as a flaw.

You might want to 'rethink' how you define 'flaws.' Considering flaws result from decreasing Volume, and not 'Peak' Volume, I do not comprehend how you arrived at a conclusion of 'flaw' here. Moreover, the 9:50 Bar on the YM (all times eastern) provides a clear signal for change.

So you had a Point Three Down channel confirmed with increasing Volume which created a Volatility Expansion, in addition to the YM showing an IBGS (and an FTT). Just how many signals for change do you need to reach a 'sufficient data set?'

- Spydertrader

 

[R/R]

Quote from romanus:

...
Until bar 29 breaks out of lateral movement on increasing dominant ( black) volume, I can't see anything that would tell me that the non dominant traverse is over and we have FBO

Appreciate any comments.

Thanks

I thought that bar 26 gave a very good clue as it attempted to BO the lower boundary and RTL on reduced volume only to spring back up and close higher than it's open. This same exact thing happened again on the next bar.

 

[Jander]

Quote from Spydertrader:

You might want to 'rethink' how you define 'flaws.' Considering flaws result from decreasing Volume, and not 'Peak' Volume, I do not comprehend how you arrived at a conclusion of 'flaw' here. Moreover, the 9:50 Bar on the YM (all times eastern) provides a clear signal for change.

- Spydertrader

I believe he is referring to the following bar if Im not mistaken

 

[romanus]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Check the YM. 11:42 (All times Eastern) provides all the information one needs.

Got it. Thanks. This stuff is so cool