Iterative Refinement

[romanus]

Quote from treeline:

Attachment: 4-25-08 am.png

I don't think I can draw a 'chubby' tape where you shown on your chart. If I try drawing it with pt1 and pt2 on the bar 8 (inside bar), then the high of bar 10 (incr black) where one would put pt3 is higher than LTL that goes through pt2.


Alternatively, one can draw valid pt3 channel 10 through 13, but it doesn't feel right to me, because I suspect that pt1 of the new channel should coincide with one of the critical points 1,2,3, FTT. But I could be wrong.

See attached.

 

[guavaman]

Quote from tobbe:

These moments where price seems to walk out of the RTL on low volume

Tobbe,

There are numerous discussions of this phenomenon using this exact same phrase throughout the Futures Journal

 

[gravitonium77]

Quote from tobbe:

How would a professional spyder/hershey-system trader think at this point in time? In my mind (and I'm not the professional ) there are thoughts like "is the red down still valid but widening... are we in a new up with a pt3 that keeps fanning out... maybe that wasn't really a B2B..."

These moments where price seems to walk out of the RTL on low volume are really difficult .

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1898396"/>

I believe you are missing two channels. Look at the magenta channels I added to your chart and see if that doesn't help.

 

[romanus]

Quote from romanus:



See attached.

oops

 

[Tums]

Quote from tobbe:

These moments where xxxxxx xxxx xxxx on low volume are really difficult .

Read your post again.
You have already answered your question.

or maybe sscott can help:

Quote from sscott:

My chart for the morning...........looks like we are entering a lunch time lateral.........

sscott

 

[romanus]

Quote from gravitonium77:

two channels

I have them too. The second one of yours didn't feel right to me at the time because the price closed inside the channel.

 

[romanus]

Quote from treeline:

I welcome comments

I am a big fan of the FTT=>FTT/FBO/BO framework that was layed out in the begining of the futures journal. As such I would have entered on bar 4 with increasing red PRV, creating pt3 in CO channel. Bar 8 on decreased black volume confirms an FTT. Reverse. Then reverse again on FBO. Repeat 30 minutes later. Right now I am trying to figure out how YM can help me identify FBO's in a timely fashion. That and the mighty gaussians of course

 

[tobbe]

Quote from cnms2:
There was recently another great discussion about a pt3 channel must having increasing dominant volume after pt3.
Hence your last blue up channel is invalid because the increasing volume is red.

My bad. There's no channel - it's a tape (I always put 1-2-3's in on my channels, and they're fat) but somehow one of the skinny lines are wrong. I had not drawn a new channel at this point in time. Sorry about that, cnms2.

Quote from guavaman:
Tobbe,There are numerous discussions of this phenomenon using this exact same phrase throughout the Futures Journal

Yes, I know . For some reason it hasn't stuck and my way of handling this before has been to wait. After enough time waiting it's easier to see what should have been done ... hindsight, of course. But thank you for reminding me, I will pursue the journals once more looking for that specific information (and some other stuff I suddenly realize I need to refresh).

Quote from gravitonium77:
I believe you are missing two channels. Look at the magenta channels I added to your chart and see if that doesn't help.

Thank you . I had not added any channels since I was in a state of confustion. I "saw" the channels you mention but was reluctant to draw them.

Quote from Tums:
Read your post again.
You have already answered your question.

True. Thanks.

Maybe I'm overposting. I'll try to restrain myself in the future. Thanks for all the help - you guys (gals?) are really great .

 

[tobbe]

Have a great weekend all.

 

[Drewkari]

Chart for the day!