Again totally incorrect - there is no dashed gray channel, as one can not draw a valid pt3 channel through bars 2,3 and 4.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1896638
Embarrassing mistake.
Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Again totally incorrect - there is no dashed gray channel, as one can not draw a valid pt3 channel through bars 2,3 and 4.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1896638
Embarrassing mistake.
Did anyone see the PT3 CO channel formed by Bar 3?
Did anyone see the confirmation by the increasing red volume from Bars 4-7?
Did anyone see the non-dom decreasing black volume (bars 8-14) to form a retrace and a PT3 channel within the CO channel?
Did anyone see the YM VDU around 10:30am ET?
Did anyone see how Bar 1 and 3 gave a trajectory on a potential fanned up channel (light black on my chart)?
Did anyone see how that once the price broke down on bar 14 it stopped dead on the fanned channel?
EDIT: And now we are sitting at the RTL of the channel and looking for increasing black volume to BO of the lateral to confirm WMCN.... WMCN did not. Cool, now looking for FTT and reverse long.
Did anyone see the confirmation by the increasing red volume from Bars 4-7?
Did anyone see the non-dom decreasing black volume (bars 8-14) to form a retrace and a PT3 channel within the CO channel?
Did anyone see the YM VDU around 10:30am ET?
Did anyone see how Bar 1 and 3 gave a trajectory on a potential fanned up channel (light black on my chart)?
Did anyone see how that once the price broke down on bar 14 it stopped dead on the fanned channel?
EDIT: And now we are sitting at the RTL of the channel and looking for increasing black volume to BO of the lateral to confirm WMCN.... WMCN did not. Cool, now looking for FTT and reverse long.
Thank you very much for the guidance Spydertrader.
As you pointed out, volume could not sustain a price move after the spike on 3-18 and volume has not hit the average line since that day. Price went sideways on lesser volume for a day and dropped even more on less volume on the next day.
Price retreated further with less volume and more promptly on down volume days which would scuttle any BO. Lot of disgruntled stock holders waiting to unload on any small move.
Likewise, average daily volume is decreasing and black volume has not broke thru to sustain an upward price movement after so large a price fall over an extended period.
Appreciate your help and BONT is out of my (mental) system.
As you pointed out, volume could not sustain a price move after the spike on 3-18 and volume has not hit the average line since that day. Price went sideways on lesser volume for a day and dropped even more on less volume on the next day.
Price retreated further with less volume and more promptly on down volume days which would scuttle any BO. Lot of disgruntled stock holders waiting to unload on any small move.
Likewise, average daily volume is decreasing and black volume has not broke thru to sustain an upward price movement after so large a price fall over an extended period.
Appreciate your help and BONT is out of my (mental) system.
I've been thinking about Spydertrader's above statement, and I've also been studying Avi 8's fantastic bar-by-bar analysis that he posted recently. I am coming to an appreciation of the benefits of holding through lateral movement, especially for beginners.
I noticed that today a beginner (acting only at ES bar closes, or at the open of the next bar) could have gotten short at one of two points. For a trader using YM as well as ES, one could have glanced at YM just as the first ES bar of the day closed and Bar 2 opened (a forming pennant developed as soon as Bar 2 opened, giving us permission to look at YM). Bar 1 on ES closed with decreasing black V, telling us to anticipate change. Bar 2 on YM showed us that change had already occurred on YM, in the form of decreasing P and increasing red V. This justified a short entry at the open of ES Bar 2.
An alternative entry, for those who don't use YM or those who prefer to wait for sync, occurred at the close of ES Bar 4 after it broke out of the Lateral Movement of the first 3 bars.
After entry, there was no reason for a beginner to reverse until the close of the 11:40 EST ES bar (10:40 CST on my chart). Although there was increasing black V on the 10:15, 10:50, and 11:00 bars (all times EST), all of these bars occurred within Lateral Formations. As such, a beginner would hold short through all these bars. Also, the V on each of these bars, while increasing over the previous bar, was actually decreasing relative to the red V on the previous traverse.
I welcome comments or critiques of this line of thinking.
P.S. As of 12:05 EST, the ES penetrated the green RTL but I would still be holding long since it occurred on decreasing red V.
Edit: I am only monitoring and did not take any of these trades.
How would a professional spyder/hershey-system trader think at this point in time? In my mind (and I'm not the professional 
) there are thoughts like "is the red down still valid but widening... are we in a new up with a pt3 that keeps fanning out... maybe that wasn't really a B2B..."
These moments where price seems to walk out of the RTL on low volume are really difficult
.
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1898396"/>
) there are thoughts like "is the red down still valid but widening... are we in a new up with a pt3 that keeps fanning out... maybe that wasn't really a B2B..."These moments where price seems to walk out of the RTL on low volume are really difficult
.<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1898396"/>
There was recently another great discussion about a pt3 channel must having increasing dominant volume after pt3. Hence your last blue up channel is invalid because the increasing volume is red.
Quote from tobbe:
How would a professional spyder/hershey-system trader think at this point in time? In my mind (and I'm not the professional
These moments where price seems to walk out of the RTL on low volume are really difficult