Iterative Refinement

WMCN

Discussions of Analysis

Skill improvement drill # 1.7



Today begins the next six bars of the WMCN series.

This will continue from where we left off on Friday evening on bar #6.
Bar #7 starts off this afternoon, and will follow through to bar 12 on Friday.



Here is the Video link for
WMCN skill improvement # 1.7


http://www.screencast.com/t/rFbipnQZ


Attached below is the ES and YM screenshot.
 

Attachments

Drill 1 Bar 7 - Tiki thank you ! Bar 7 and the YM Volume would confuse me in real time.


Context - Forest PT3 formed of LONG CHANNEL.

Monitor - ES IBG ( B\/R ). Back in lateral. INC R PRV on YM. Analysis - Expected Long Channel not happening Decision - CHANGE SHORT Action

TWO SCENARIOs of what could happen next.

retrace of a retrace
WMCM - Lower lows on inc Red PRV

Pt 3 RTL bounce into long channel
WMCM - INC G PRV and price above close of bar 6.

At this point I am confused by
1) INC R PRV on the YM and
2) The IBG on the ES and what looks to be an INCREASE in RED VOLUME in BAR 7 compared to BAR 6 VOLUME
has me thinking CHANGE and the retrace of the retrace is in progress.


Trade results
Trade 1 sHORT Entry of bo OF bAR 1 FROM LATERAL.

Trade 2 REVERSE LONG several minutes into Bar 6 after I am sure about INC G PRV.

Trade 1 Result - WASH to small loss

Trade 3 REVERSE SHORT

Trade 2 Result - WASH to small loss
 

Attachments

I'd like to thank Jack, Spyder, all seniors (experience wise of course!), and all moderators for everything you've done. I'm very new here. I became aware of the JH method late last year - Since Spyder recommended to start with equities first - I printed the entire Journal One and Journal Two so I can highlight the important parts - As I started trying to draw channels, I found it was very difficult with all those gaps! When I started to follow this thread, it became apparent to me that if I want to learn how to draw channels correctly I must draw the ES instead and for the last two months whenever I got to stay home during the day I devoted my entire time to annotate the YM and the ES - I really appreciate what Tiki has been doing. It helps me tremendously.

Now the reason why I'm here tonight is that a friend of mine asked what is my take the stock, WM, which he currently holds a Short position.

On Daily chart I saw that the BO of the blue up channel happened last Friday with big Red volume - The SMA crossed - Price is very near the RTL - a FBO - all the indicators pointing down - So it's the continuation of the down trend. I was happy with that conclusion until I noticed that the big Red volume never made a LL - On the 30-minute chart I saw the last bar with very big Red volume but the Price pace was not that violent and the bar closed with a decent up - The Sto(5,3,2) has the blue line about to cross the red line - and on the 5-minute chart I saw big Green volume came in the last 25 minutes - with these, my conclusion is the Friday's action indicated "change".

I appreciate any comments on my analysis as well as on my channels - I'll attach the Daily, 30-minute, and 5-minute charts.

Thanks again for everything.

Edit: I notice that Tums does not like to see charts with candle sticks but I'm using StrategyDesk and the bar style is all in one black color... sorry Tums.
 

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Quote from kat007:
Edit: I notice that Tums does not like to see charts with candle sticks but I'm using StrategyDesk and the bar style is all in one black color... sorry Tums.
More...

LOL... not that I don't like Candles.
Rather, we should use tools that work for us.
If someone says: "This is so confusing..., I can't see what is going on."
Then I would suggest to him to stop doing whatever that does not work for him, and try the simple chart set up suggested by Spyder.
 
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