Iterative Refinement

ES M8 Daily Chart March 28/08.


Today's daily bar did break out, and close outside of the lateral formation, although on lower volume.

Price is decreasing inside the dominant down channel.
Looks like price has made a valid FTT on March 17 in the dominant down channel, unless price takes it out and continues to decrease.


In this recent post we have something to keep an eye on in this WMCN of the daily.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1855656(cnms2)
 

Attachments

Quote from ang_99:

I didn't realize we had just formed a sym. pennant on relative DU volume and I should have held.
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Hopefully, you now understand why I have placed such a high level of importance on creating thoroughly annotated charts. Please note how the 'M' appears before A-D-A in the M-A-D-A Sequence. One cannot properly analyze, make correct decisions or take timely action, without first properly annotating a chart. You've received several great pieces of advice over the last few days. I recommend reviewing those posts.

- Spydertrader
 
In the ES Daily Charts we have an opportunity to really slow down time, and look at one bar at a time each day.
I would like to post a series of WMCN on the daily charts.

It would be very beneficial if anyone would like to join in on this WMCN of the daily and contribute what is it that you see.

Taking this slowed down approach one bar at a time, and discussing WMCN can provide a great drill for all involved on the 5 minute charts or trading equities.

Slowing down the sequences can have a very good benefit for everyone.

In NYC some of us were very fortunate to see Spydertrader do this at an amazing speed with a solid knowledge of what he knew must come next.

I realized I needed big time work to get to that level, and to do that was to take a step back.
The daily charts I felt could provide the environment to really slow everything down and think carefully.

We are in the analysis phase of the journey, and as the Iterative Refinement continues as with equities and futures combined, this is a great way for everyone to increase their skills.

Working on the first A of MADA, over time the speed will increase and can provide quicker analysis that can be applied to the ES 5 minute or even equities.

So I would like to continue to post the Daily ES and anyone who would like to contribute to WMCN please join in.


If this is OK with Spyder, I will continue the WMCN on the ES Daily.
 
Considering that you tried to trade the least steep retrace of the day, your reasult is actually not bad. Now, was this your only trade because that was the only time you watched the market today? If not, it means you tried to "catch a falling nife", to pick a bottom, and this requires a skill you probably don't have yet. Until your skills get better, try to trade with the trend.
Quote from ang_99:

1 trade today....
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I'm up for it, but don't forget that there are some major differences between price and volume action on the 5 minute and on the daily charts. Market internals and externals have different weight on these charts. Open and close prices have different relevance. On the 5 minute chart we watch and act intra-bar too. On the daily chart volume is affected by roll-overs, expirations, holidays. Intraday the activity, hence volatility, depends on the time of the day. And so on.

It might actually be more useful to take an almost random intraday ES 5 min chart (unknown to others) and walk through it one 5 min bar a day. We could also look at the 2 min chart from the same day. If you have an older recorded day you could take snapshots of it every 5 minutes (or even every 1 minute if you like). The discussion will take more than 2 months (if using 1 minute snapshots, for expedience I would suggest advancing five 1 minute snapshots a day).

EDIT: You could just cherry-pick one "interesting" period from a past day (date unknown to others). We can back annotate it up to before that period, then start our one-bar-a-day analysis from that moment (5 min or 1 min snapshots).
Quote from TIKITRADER:

In the ES Daily Charts we have an opportunity to really slow down time, and look at one bar at a time each day.
I would like to post a series of WMCN on the daily charts.
...
So I would like to continue to post the Daily ES and anyone who would like to contribute to WMCN please join in.

If this is OK with Spyder, I will continue the WMCN on the ES Daily.
More...
 
Quote from cnms2:

It might actually be more useful to take an almost random intraday ES 5 min chart (unknown to others) and walk through it one 5 min bar a day. .
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Excellent idea cnms2.

Picking an ES 5 minute chart and even the two minute Ym and discussing WMCN on ONE bar per day would be great, and right on topic with Analysis.

I am up for that and everyone could join right in on discussion.
 
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