Iterative Refinement

Quote from TraderD72:

Dont know if you saw this but would you mind commenting on this post when you have a minute.
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Because we have chosen to use the ES five minute as our trading 'view' of the market, we may experience a 'change signal' just before, just at or just after the period of time we refer to as 'the now.' As a trader, each must decide how to define 'sufficient data set' with respect to their particular trading resolution, and more importantly, knowledge and experience. As long as each trader defines their specific rule set, and then, maintains the discipline required to follow the rule set, then the trader has already fought half the battle. Ultimately, the market decides, whether or not, a specific rule set with respect to 'sufficiency' measures as appropriate and timely. Every other opinion matters little and effects the bottom line not at all.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

As a trader, each must decide how to define 'sufficient data set' with respect to their particular trading resolution, and more importantly, knowledge and experience. As long as each trader defines their specific rule set, and then, maintains the discipline required to follow the rule set, then the trader has already fought half the battle.
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Gold Spyder...pure gold!! :cool:
 
Look at these 2 trades, did you see them in the making? I was alerted to such patterns by Avi. I pulled lots of charts out and did countless drills. Today I failed to get in the down move but when I saw these patterns forming, I was very confident in taking the trades, I hesitated at the break of rtl several times and missed those. :D
 

Attachments

I want to start off by saying thank you to Spyder, Jack, and everyone else who has posted charts and discussion in the futures journal.

I have been struggling with futures trading for several years. Never losing a lot, but never making a lot. I have always been a breakeven trader (thus my username lol).

I started reading the journal in March of last year. After annotating my first few charts I could see the obvious possibilities if I could progress to the point of learning to "drive" through the market each day. I say drive because I think learning this method is like learning to drive a car. Once a person has learned to drive it is not a problem if a car stops across the road, the skill set is there to deal with the problem. Learning to trade with this type of mindset was (and still is) a revelation to me. This analogy was my very first "Aha!".

I have never posted in the journal before because every time I came to the thread with a question, the answer was staring me in the face on Spyder's chart.

I probably (read certainly) jumped to the simulator to quickly the first time, and just as Spyder said it slowed or even set back my learning. So, I went back to just annotating and comparing my charts with the ones posted. After gaining some perspective (or not) I went back to the simulator with the goal of trading the Forrest level dominate traverses. I would patiently wait for two trees to show me the forest, then take a trade on the pt3 (ftt of non-dominate tree) and exit on the break of the RTL of the next dominate tree. I made progress! Both in consistency and in profitability. So much so that I went to live trading and started to make some real progress.

For example, the month of Nov I had only 3 losing days. Unfortunately they were big ones. Ended the month barely positive, breakeven once again. Aug, Sept, Oct all about the same.

Back to the simulator.

I felt I had progressed to the point where I was consistently seeing the trees, so back to the simulator to attempt to progress a little further down the path to profitability. I made (and make) an effort to stay off the limbs. When I take a trade based on a FTT of a tree channel I attempt to ride through the forming of a pt2, then back to a pt3 and on till the FTT. This costs me sometimes due to the LTL bounces which come back across and break the RTL without a nice mid-channel FTT, but in my effort to stay off the limbs that is the price I pay. 2:45-3:25EST today as an example...VE on slight increasing volume, YM showing decreasing green, then increasing red...yep it was a FTT, but it seemed to be a limb (i.e. normal retrace) until the breakout on increasing red. I normally would have went short at 3:30 on that inc volume, but was busy typing my novel here lol.

Some days I am unstoppable, riding all the tress with no problems at all. Even had a few days where I pulled more than the daily range. Had a couple of weeks of >100 points for the week, positive every day.

Then of course there are the days like today, total disaster. Couldn't find a tree if someone cut it on my desk. Nearly every trade I took was on a limb, inside a lateral/formation, reverse to fix the problem as soon as I realized it only to pick the very worst tick. Picked the top/bottoms of bars several times today, in the wrong direction.

I know I can see it. I know what must come next. I know the sequence of events. I know it can be done. But I can't do it consistently.

I have always thought, hell I have always KNOWN that my first post to the journal would be a happy one, an "I made it" post. Sadly, that is not how it has turned out. After days like today I feel like I have learned nothing in the last year (maybe I haven't).

My head hurts from beating it against the wall, so I am throwing today's chart out there in all its disgrace. Agree, laugh, critique, scorn...whichever of these you feel please post it up, I want to hear it.

Entries/exits are on the chart. Blue channel lines are trees, red/green are forest, orange/purple are carryovers, yellow are formations.

Long story short, I need some advice.
 

Attachments

Annotate...annotate...annotate...annotate...annotate...annotate... and annotate...

There is no easy way out.

Annotate until you can put the annotation down before it happens...

1... 2... 3... FTP... FBP... SYM... Flaw... FTT... BO... FBO...
 
Hi,
I know what you mean Breakeven.

No advise here at this moment but today was a disaster for me as well.

14:45 we have the mother of all gaussians. Increasing extreme red volume throughout the complete bar. I got in early in made 8 points or so. (didn't count, didn't care). We have extreme volume so this is very reliable right?

If there ever was a time to hold it would be now. Anyone agree?

So I held an felt relaxed. Next bar, Sym pennant and flaw volume. Hold.

15:10 the complete bar is taken out on the upside by increasing volume. Profit completely gone.

But we don't care about profit, just about being on the right side of the market right?

So I feel relaxed.. Why do I feel relaxed? Well, because we are long which is a good thing. 15:15 is a RTL break. We had increasing volume and are awaiting a point 3 up.

15:35 - 15:40 this is not going to work. We are still waiting for point 3 up. Exit with a loss, this is a downchannel, we have increasing red.

15:45 VE on decreasing volume. YM shows an FTT so we go long.

Next bar: Oops, we exit with a big loss.

Now the day is over. Are we still relaxed? No, not anymore.

I am trading just a few shares of SPY luckily, but ES would have shown a loss of 13-14 points or so.

Things are not what they seem. FTT's happen on flaw volume and flaws happen on high volume. Holding after BO seems the stupidest thing to do. As soon as you have seen increasing volume or increasing PRV, the move is over.

Others may have a profit trading this method but realistically I don't know if I ever will. I try to believe it, I want to believe it but reality shows otherwise. Been working on it for 14 months now. Every day.

The results (but who cares about P&L??): I have never had more than 1 consecutive day of profits (sym or real doesn't matter)

Sure, occasionally there is a good trade.

regards,
Ivo


Quote from Breakeven:

I want to start off by saying thank you to Spyder, Jack, and everyone else who has posted charts and discussion in the futures journal.

I have been struggling with futures trading for several years. Never losing a lot, but never making a lot. I have always been a breakeven trader (thus my username lol).

I started reading the journal in March of last year. After annotating my first few charts I could see the obvious possibilities if I could progress to the point of learning to "drive" through the market each day. I say drive because I think learning this method is like learning to drive a car. Once a person has learned to drive it is not a problem if a car stops across the road, the skill set is there to deal with the problem. Learning to trade with this type of mindset was (and still is) a revelation to me. This analogy was my very first "Aha!".

I have never posted in the journal before because every time I came to the thread with a question, the answer was staring me in the face on Spyder's chart.

I probably (read certainly) jumped to the simulator to quickly the first time, and just as Spyder said it slowed or even set back my learning. So, I went back to just annotating and comparing my charts with the ones posted. After gaining some perspective (or not) I went back to the simulator with the goal of trading the Forrest level dominate traverses. I would patiently wait for two trees to show me the forest, then take a trade on the pt3 (ftt of non-dominate tree) and exit on the break of the RTL of the next dominate tree. I made progress! Both in consistency and in profitability. So much so that I went to live trading and started to make some real progress.

For example, the month of Nov I had only 3 losing days. Unfortunately they were big ones. Ended the month barely positive, breakeven once again. Aug, Sept, Oct all about the same.

Back to the simulator.

I felt I had progressed to the point where I was consistently seeing the trees, so back to the simulator to attempt to progress a little further down the path to profitability. I made (and make) an effort to stay off the limbs. When I take a trade based on a FTT of a tree channel I attempt to ride through the forming of a pt2, then back to a pt3 and on till the FTT. This costs me sometimes due to the LTL bounces which come back across and break the RTL without a nice mid-channel FTT, but in my effort to stay off the limbs that is the price I pay. 2:45-3:25EST today as an example...VE on slight increasing volume, YM showing decreasing green, then increasing red...yep it was a FTT, but it seemed to be a limb (i.e. normal retrace) until the breakout on increasing red. I normally would have went short at 3:30 on that inc volume, but was busy typing my novel here lol.

Some days I am unstoppable, riding all the tress with no problems at all. Even had a few days where I pulled more than the daily range. Had a couple of weeks of >100 points for the week, positive every day.

Then of course there are the days like today, total disaster. Couldn't find a tree if someone cut it on my desk. Nearly every trade I took was on a limb, inside a lateral/formation, reverse to fix the problem as soon as I realized it only to pick the very worst tick. Picked the top/bottoms of bars several times today, in the wrong direction.

I know I can see it. I know what must come next. I know the sequence of events. I know it can be done. But I can't do it consistently.

I have always thought, hell I have always KNOWN that my first post to the journal would be a happy one, an "I made it" post. Sadly, that is not how it has turned out. After days like today I feel like I have learned nothing in the last year (maybe I haven't).

My head hurts from beating it against the wall, so I am throwing today's chart out there in all its disgrace. Agree, laugh, critique, scorn...whichever of these you feel please post it up, I want to hear it.

Entries/exits are on the chart. Blue channel lines are trees, red/green are forest, orange/purple are carryovers, yellow are formations.

Long story short, I need some advice.
More...
 
Quote from Breakeven:


Long story short, I need some advice. [/B]
More...

I am certain at some point Spyder will chip in but from the looks of your charts you are taking too many trades.
You have to decide, at which level you wish to trade, I would stick to the forest and tree level, then let the trades develop, let them come to you, let them scream at you , "short me, short me" or " long me, long me".
Think in terms of continuation and change. When you see VE, you anticipate, an FTT, FTT is your point 1, wait for point 2 then for point 3. They have different characteristics, learn them, memorise them.
Keep reading the journal, I am reading the guassians section again and again as my gaussains are not too brilliant :D, in doing so, I pick things that my eyes hadn't "seen" before.
I am sure you know all this.
Good trading to all :D
 
First time poster and longterm follower and appreciative of the work of SpyderTrader, JH, and the gang.

I tried to get in on the HMIN alert as you did LittleMac because it was a Bruno R pick for the day. However, price kept jumping like crazy as I was bidding and I gave up. Lucky me, saved at least my 2% stop in light of the crash which makes this a good nontrade.

The gaussians are a foreign language to me and I try to watch for B2Bs and R2Rs which I annotate. My HMIN chart was a little different from yours and may be all wet as I tried to use what I thought was an FTT to set my RTL for the red channel.

LittleMac, my chart on ANW also varied and can post it if you are interested at this late date.

Thanks everyone for being so helpful in sharing your knowledge and welcome any thoughts or criticism (constructive).:D
 
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