Iterative Refinement

Ben Bernanke Speaks! Thursday - Jan 10, 2008

1:00 PM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to speak about the financial markets, U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy to the Women in Housing and Finance, in Washington. Audience Q&A expected .

1:00 PM ET : Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig to speak about the U.S. economic outlook, in Kansas City, Missouri. Audience Q&A possible.
 
Quote from BlowFish:

I think I need to tape over the DOM as well as the P&L. I find ticks against me 'uncomfortable'.
More...

Thanks all for the comments and suggestions (except for Tikitrader's innate ability to be a relaxed trader :p) I will report back on my findings after I do Spyder's drills.

Blowfish, I use "Tiltblocker2" to cover my P&L which does help, but it doesn't replace dealings with one's demons so to speak.
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

You need to bring the pendulum back to the middle and away from the extremes. Here is an easy little drill to convince you just how much you really do know.

Start with Bar 1 (9:30 AM eastern time) of the day at its close (9:35). Watch Price and Volume. If Price of Bar 2 breaks the Low of the previous Bar on increasing Volume (use PRV), Enter Short. If Price of Bar 2 breaks the High of Bar 1 on increasing Volume (Again, use PRV), Enter Long. As long as Volume continues to increase (by close of the Bar) - Hold. Exit at the first Bar which closes with decreasing Volume (at the close of the Bar).

Do not execute any trade if Volume falls in DU or VDU.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

End at 4:00 PM Eastern Time.

The above drill requires the use of a simulator, and has clear, objective rules to follow. You should 'see' a few winning trades, a few losing trades a few FBO's and an Outside Bar or three, and (if the market cooperates as it did the past 2 days) some very nice profits. You will however not catch an entire move.

Let me know how it goes.

- Spydertrader
More...

Thank you for this Master YODA:D
 
Not much in terms of equities signals today. Got out of my BPHX short as that turned out to be a total bust. One stock Im
watching is LQDT which had a signal according to unusual volume around 10:40 but Im not confident about my guassians. Im looking for increased black volume and a break out of the current red channel. I know its probably some kind of lateral movement but I see it as an FTT. Plus it lines up nicely as a Bruno R setup. Thing I'm worried about is volume staying where it needs to be. Comments welcome.

1-800-HOWSMYTRADING
 

Attachments

Yesterday I went long on my first big picture FTT. Price was only two points away from my LTL, and I saw a peaking red volume bar followed by two increasing black bars. I risked the low of the last bar which was the low of the day. Shortly after price traveresed back down, and then the next FTT caused the EOD rally. I am having some problems with my chart today, therefore I am unable to capture a visual of the scenario. Based on my description, is there anything I should have noticed which would have keept me out of the FTT reversal?
 
Spyder,

If a bar is taken out on increasing volume (using PRV) we enter. What if that same bar at close did not turn out to be increasing volume compared to the previous bar?

Does that matter with respect to this drill?
This happens often BTW.
Does that mean my judgement was wrong?

Logically thinking we must use PRV to anticipate volume at end of bar and we should close position if we opened one using PRV but volume did not increase in the end.

So must we be sure volume will end up increasing at close or bar or is just increasing PRV during the break of bar sufficient?

I want to be sure so I am asking.

regards,
Ivo




Quote from Spydertrader:

Yes. You hold.

You'll have FBO's now and then, and you'll also have Outside Bars with which to contend - all of which provide a lesson. By performing the drill, a trader learns where focus needs application. Did the trader follow the rules exactly as described? Did the market provide clues as to when an exit or reverse action best suited the context before the rule set kicked in? Did the rules cause an exit earlier than desired? Later?

Pay close attention to how you feel during this exercise. I think you'll learn a significant amount about yourself in the process.

- Spydertrader
More...
 
Quote from ivob:

Logically thinking we must use PRV to anticipate volume at end of bar and we should close position if we opened one using PRV but volume did not increase in the end.

So must we be sure volume will end up increasing at close or bar or is just increasing PRV during the break of bar sufficient?
More...

For purposes of the drill, entering on increasing PRV, and noticing Volume showed decreasing by the end of the bar, requires an exit. When actually trading, as long as Price continues to move in one's favor, you hold (although ready to wash if a quick reverse happens). The whole point of this drill is to identify where one's strength's reside (as well as one's weaknesses) by showing the trader where the rules caused an early exit or a late one.

For those using the drill today, the 12:15 & 12:20 bars should have worked out rather nicely - about 17.5 points in ten minutes. That sure makes up for a bunch of errors. :D

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Ben Bernanke Speaks! Thursday - Jan 10, 2008

1:00 PM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to speak about the financial markets, U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy to the Women in Housing and Finance, in Washington. Audience Q&A expected .
More...

Bernanke knows how to please his women :D
 
Quote from Mr_Black:

To calibrate means to have exact same resolution for tapes or channels for all time fractals used.
For EUR/USD and GBP/USD the strength indication comes from EUR/GBP if EUR/GBP is up this means that if EUR/USD is up to is the strongest so if i have long signal I will take it. I use volatility only to select the best times of the day for trading. i hope this was helpful
More...

Very helpful. Thank you.

Also, thanks to those who shared some of their mental blocks while trading. I've been experiencing a number of your difficulties, i.e. "fighting old habits", "not completely following the method", "not letting trades materialize", and "knowing what's happening but not acting on it". In addition to covering up the P/L on your monitor and other tips, I'd like to include Jack's "four stepper".

I'm big into declarations for reprogramming the bad stuff out of the brain, so when I read about the four stepper it had a certain appeal. Sometimes we may need more of a mental readjustment than we do a deeper understanding of the methodology. To find out more you can do a search using "four stepper" and look for posts by jack hershey, bubba7, and grob109. Here are the basic rules as outlined by Mr. Hershey for the four stepper. Jack goes in-depth on how it works in his other posts.

jack hershey

Registered: Feb 2003
Posts: 1893

03-13-03 12:53 AM
Step 1. What is it like for you now?

Say something like this (out loud maybe):

This thing is a chore. Hey I don't like anything about it. I can't get to a place where i can knock down up to 20 trades a day on anything. Not ES not NZ not even QQQ.

Step 2. What do you really want?

Say the answer out loud for sure. It might be:

I have some good resourses here, money, and a zinger set of indicators and signals. I like to groove and get down a set of turns veryday. I definitely know when to get in and it's fun when the time is clearly right. I can just as easily sit it out or wash out on any trade that I get into and just watch any flat market that comes along. I am always going to be ready when the market picks up. What I want is to just be in the groove for anytime the market sets up. If it is flat, I am cruising on the web for the fun of it.

Step 3. Can you accept what you really want? Is that what it really is? Fix it up and say YES. And repeat out loud what you have written down.

Step 4. Just get on with other things. Go do something.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top