Iterative Refinement

[Spydertrader]

Quote from guavaman:

I end the day at a loss and feel like dog excrement because I wasted another chance to better myself and improve my skills as a trader of JHM.

You need to bring the pendulum back to the middle and away from the extremes. Here is an easy little drill to convince you just how much you really do know.

Start with Bar 1 (9:30 AM eastern time) of the day at its close (9:35). Watch Price and Volume. If Price of Bar 2 breaks the Low of the previous Bar on increasing Volume (use PRV), Enter Short. If Price of Bar 2 breaks the High of Bar 1 on increasing Volume (Again, use PRV), Enter Long. As long as Volume continues to increase (by close of the Bar) - Hold. Exit at the first Bar which closes with decreasing Volume (at the close of the Bar).

Do not execute any trade if Volume falls in DU or VDU.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

End at 4:00 PM Eastern Time.

The above drill requires the use of a simulator, and has clear, objective rules to follow. You should 'see' a few winning trades, a few losing trades a few FBO's and an Outside Bar or three, and (if the market cooperates as it did the past 2 days) some very nice profits. You will however not catch an entire move.

Let me know how it goes.

- Spydertrader

 

[TIKITRADER]

Thanks for the feedback cnms2 and guavaman.
I do trade 1 contract at this point.
I am profitable and I am very happy with that,
not that the profits are large, but they are consistent and that is all I strive for at this point.

The blessing I have is a calm personality which helps me to be a relaxed trader.

In this journey I like to share all that I learn and all that I experience.
The feedback from everyone is valuable. It is a huge part of the journey and transition one day towards sct.

 

[bi9foot]

Quote from ehorn:

Ultimately, I see measuring success as "knowing you know". In other words, asking myself questions like:

How well did I perform the MADA, log, debrief?
How much of the day (if any) was I "see" ing?
How much of the day was I was front-running?
How much of the day was I anticipating vs. reacting?
What did I learn (right and/or wrong)?
What am I lacking (appropriate self-assessment)?

Excellent questions to ponder during debrief. You have some questions (in red) that I have not asked myself but will now be added to my daily assessment.

 

[cnms2]

Quote from guavaman:

... Currently I find myself fighting the old habit of scalping even on a simulator.

Think about it: there's no reason to simulate something you don't care about anymore (scalping).

I find it very fine line between holding a trade until the predetermined parameter's have been met and sitting on my arse while all the profit earned has disappeared and I am under water.

Your both scenarios are about the same: "reacting". For me, more important is the difference between "reacting" and "anticipating".

This is where I had one of my biggest AHAs: I was late at the party because I reacted instead of anticipating. This made the difference between profitable and not profitable.

Either I am committed to be patient for the trade to develop or I am trigger happy to exit at the first signs of a retrace.

You have to find your "modus" and apply it without guessing: is this a big trend, a small trend or what ... If you focus on big trends you'll catch those, but you'll have lots of small losses, and sometimes you'll watch small trades turning from profitable into losses. If you focus on smaller trends you won't hit homeruns, but you'll have fewer and smaller losses. There is nothing wrong with either approach. Just apply it consistently!

...

 

[ivob]

I have the exact same problem Guava. My profits have been more consistent lately (max 3 points a day) but I never seem to be able to really apply the rules and next to this I still have big losing days usually because of being trigger happy. Seeing too many changes in a trend.

So either it's a small gain or a big loss..... at the end of the day.

I do catch FTT's and Pt3's often the exact moment but I never let them really materialize. The first thing when I catch the trade is thinking where to get out which is usually at one or two points (if things move quickly). I know it's ridiculous but I'm just being honest. I know profits take care of themselves and it's the losses we should cut and avoid but my behaviour is different. The whole point is of course that trading this way it just takes a few mistakes to end the day in red completely unnecessarily.

Then lately in trying to be more consistent I seem to be looking for "confirmation" instead of anticipating. (great post cnms2!) Today I let the FTT go, I let the RTL break go and entered at the worst moment: pt2... and it all happened before my eyes and I knew it. I was waiting and waiting, "just be sure". Ridiculous. By the time I had my point 3 I had reversed several times and when the trend was really on it's way and I had all the opportunity in the world to end the day in green I was still in trigger mode making things worse.....

Of course we should anticipate. Take the trade when you see the FTT and worry if it was right later. We know quickly if we were right and can usually fix it before damage is done.

Some of my thinking is upside down and this leads to results opposite to the desired ones.

Will execute Spyder's drill tomorrow. (sim of course)

regards,
Ivo

Quote from guavaman:

I am still on the simulator. Having blown through two accounts to date (pre JHM) I do not see the logic in going live until I have internalized this method to a sufficient degree and then can execute it with consistent success. This does not mean to be consistently profitable. This means to be able to see the right side of the market either when it is happening or before hand, execute a trade at optimal (or near optimal) points and then follow the precepts of the method to a proper exit.

Of late I have begun to be profitable on a more consistent basis. However, this is not the same as being consistently profitable as a result of my ability to consistently see the right side of the market, execute and manage the trade in strict accordance with the method.

Currently I find myself fighting the old habit of scalping even on a simulator. I find it very fine line between holding a trade until the predetermined parameter's have been met and sitting on my arse while all the profit earned has disappeared and I am under water. Either I am committed to be patient for the trade to develop or I am trigger happy to exit at the first signs of a retrace. I am not saying that these are the only two scenarios, but it seems more times than not that is the case because in both cases when I resolve to do either; I am not entirely focused on what the market is saying but instead I am looking for supporting info to buttress the case for my trading desires (be patient and hold or protect points).

Today I was profitable, but like most days like this; I take little satisfaction because I really didn't follow the method once a trade had been taken. I am too focused on protecting gains because for whatever the real reason(s) when I am not, I end the day at a loss and feel like dog excrement because I wasted another chance to better myself and improve my skills as a trader of JHM.

 

[ivob]

Just a question about this drill.

If price breaks the low of the previous bar on increasing PRV we go short. What if that bar subsequently closes higher than the low of the previous bar. (so we have FBO). Do we still hold?

regards,
Ivo

Quote from Spydertrader:

You need to bring the pendulum back to the middle and away from the extremes. Here is an easy little drill to convince you just how much you really do know.

Start with Bar 1 (9:30 AM eastern time) of the day at its close (9:35). Watch Price and Volume. If Price of Bar 2 breaks the Low of the previous Bar on increasing Volume (use PRV), Enter Short. If Price of Bar 2 breaks the High of Bar 1 on increasing Volume (Again, use PRV), Enter Long. As long as Volume continues to increase (by close of the Bar) - Hold. Exit at the first Bar which closes with decreasing Volume (at the close of the Bar).

Do not execute any trade if Volume falls in DU or VDU.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

End at 4:00 PM Eastern Time.

The above drill requires the use of a simulator, and has clear, objective rules to follow. You should 'see' a few winning trades, a few losing trades a few FBO's and an Outside Bar or three, and (if the market cooperates as it did the past 2 days) some very nice profits. You will however not catch an entire move.

Let me know how it goes.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ivob:

What if that bar subsequently closes higher than the low of the previous bar. (so we have FBO). Do we still hold?

Yes. You hold.

You'll have FBO's now and then, and you'll also have Outside Bars with which to contend - all of which provide a lesson. By performing the drill, a trader learns where focus needs application. Did the trader follow the rules exactly as described? Did the market provide clues as to when an exit or reverse action best suited the context before the rule set kicked in? Did the rules cause an exit earlier than desired? Later?

Pay close attention to how you feel during this exercise. I think you'll learn a significant amount about yourself in the process.

- Spydertrader

 

[cnms2]

Quote from ivob:

... Seeing too many changes in a trend.

A suggestion: draw all the channels and the tapes, on both ES and YM, and enter on ES's or YM's tape BO, without waiting for volume increase. Watch carefully for the dominos to fall (volume increase, indicators' sequencing if you use them, etc.). If they don't fall (WWT) reverse ...

 

[BlowFish]

Guavaman, I empathise with a lot of what you say above. The problem for me is me. I think turning inwards and asking yourself the tough questions will reveal why you are indulging in this 'bad behaviour'. That will allow you to formulate solutions. Even having identified the problems and formulated solutions personally I still struggle to apply them as I should.

Despite this I still make small profits consistently, actually this hinders me as I think well if I make a couple of ticks here, a point there, lose a tick or two somewhere else but come out net +ve for the day whats so bad? As someone pointed out you know you are just not 'doing it right'.

There are some great suggestions above. On the subject of noting feelings maybe get a headset and record them as the trade progresses.

One thing I have noticed is my mind behaves completely differently when I have a position on. This is the case whether it is real or simulated, its not about money.

I think I need to tape over the DOM as well as the P&L. I find ticks against me 'uncomfortable'.

 

[Mr_Black]

Quote from Padawan:

Thanks, Mr_Black. A few questions if you don't mind. What do you mean by "calibrate"? How does one compare the "strength" of one pair to the other? Back in Spyder's JH Futures Journal, you mentioned using a volatility indicator to replace volume based on bar range. Does that tool still assist you or have you moved on to solely making pair comparisons? Any and all assistance you can offer is most welcome and much appreciated. Apolgoies for all the questions. I love Fx, but she doesn't love me back.

In other news, glad to see you all trading well. Congratulations. Couldn't watch the market live today, but I'm excited about the replay and SIM that's about to happen on this end. Cheers!

To calibrate means to have exact same resolution for tapes or channels for all time fractals used.
For EUR/USD and GBP/USD the strength indication comes from EUR/GBP if EUR/GBP is up this means that if EUR/USD is up to is the strongest so if i have long signal I will take it. I use volatility only to select the best times of the day for trading. i hope this was helpful