Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Hi guava, could you tell me which bars you're referring to as even harmonics? Either the time of the bars or a snip of the chart would help.
If I had been in your situation, then the14:50 or 14:55 bars would've been good rocket entries given the significant increase in red volume. If you were on the 15 min. chart, then I might've gone short after seeing the explosive increasing PRV on the 14:45 bar right after the break of the up channel. It made a point 3 there on increasing volume. I would consider those fairly safe beginner entries given my current style of trading.
Quote from cnms2:
For me the solution was / is SCT: knowing that I have to have an opinion about the market, long or short. No third option, except on slow pace. And obviously: no bias, which comes from not watching your P&L.
There's indeed a certain peace about being in the market continuously. It causes you to move away from thinking in terms of entries and exits and it establishes the goal of always having a position opened in what you've determined to be the right side of the market.
When I trade I see myself with two little levers at my disposal. The levers are connected to valves that can be opened and closed by pulling the levers. By determining the tide I decide which lever to pull and which valve to open so that my account fills itself with money.
Once you have this picture in your mind, holding off until finding a good entry is not really an issue because you know that money is not made by entries but by being on the right side of the market.
Any suggestions on how to better handle this in the future?
guava [/B][/QUOTE]
Guava
When I see extreme volume, I know I need to be in and will use a tape on a 1 min chart, inside bar on a 1 or 2 min chart, narrow range bar and stop in, and last resort would be a reverse APA approach, in todays instance, a 5 min bar where price heads higher and than takes out the previous low. I will only do these when volume is extreme. I will use the first mentioned things for entering when anticipating a point 3.
Hope this helps, we all seem to find a way to get on the right side. The SCT idea that CNMS2 and F-alex mentioned seem like the best ideas but I have yet to find that trail in the forest.
guava [/B][/QUOTE]
Guava
When I see extreme volume, I know I need to be in and will use a tape on a 1 min chart, inside bar on a 1 or 2 min chart, narrow range bar and stop in, and last resort would be a reverse APA approach, in todays instance, a 5 min bar where price heads higher and than takes out the previous low. I will only do these when volume is extreme. I will use the first mentioned things for entering when anticipating a point 3.
Hope this helps, we all seem to find a way to get on the right side. The SCT idea that CNMS2 and F-alex mentioned seem like the best ideas but I have yet to find that trail in the forest.
Padawan,
On the 5 min. chart (I don't use the 15 min) the 14:50 showed slowing red volume at a daily pivot point as well as a RTL (bright green) I have. I was reserved in attempting an entry because of my efforts to enter at or very near a RTL or at least on increasing volume out of a formation. I did make some points on the PT3 at 15:35, but to miss such a huge run just isn't right. I have to find ways to capture good entries, not find ways to miss good moves.
Chart for January 08 2008
Where I agree and indeed envy those would exercise SCT (or some close approximation of it) I am far away from acquiring that ability. At my current ability I still struggle to determine what constitutes the right side of the market at any given time. This is why I am trying mighty hard to restrict all my entries to the RTL (in some cases Formation BO's) so I do not enter the fray at an inopportune time where understanding the right side of the market is not readily discernible.
Right or wrong I am also trying to limit my information to the 5 min ES and 2 min YM. If I keep realistic expectations and develop the necessary discipline the enter in the manner I have outlined, I believe I can be profitable on a consistent basis. I run into a whole bunch of trouble when I try to determine the tight turns using these tools.
John
Hi guava, thanks for the reply. You confirmed my thoughts about the even harmonics. Also, I see what you're saying about the RTL around the 14:50 bar. I didn't even think to have my right trend line extend there, a mistake on my part, maybe because price approached that area on primarily increasing red volume rather than decreasing red volume. You've definitely got the right attitude and you'll get there. No need to worry about missing signals, because the market isn't going anywhere and another trade is a'comin'.
As for the SCT comments, I've read where Jack advises an exit and then reverse strategy (sometimes using brackets). I'm a bit confused by this compared to the always in SCT style you've mentioned, and quite frankly (no, I'm not Stephen A. Smith) I'm not sure if my interpretation of Jack is even correct to begin with.
Are there ever points where the market conditions suggest exiting first and then reversing, or is there always enough information out there to reverse all day without ever exiting? I'm in most of the time, but there are points when I don't know what's going on, so I exit and look for continuation or change.
As for the SCT comments, I've read where Jack advises an exit and then reverse strategy (sometimes using brackets). I'm a bit confused by this compared to the always in SCT style you've mentioned, and quite frankly (no, I'm not Stephen A. Smith) I'm not sure if my interpretation of Jack is even correct to begin with.
Are there ever points where the market conditions suggest exiting first and then reversing, or is there always enough information out there to reverse all day without ever exiting? I'm in most of the time, but there are points when I don't know what's going on, so I exit and look for continuation or change.