Iterative Refinement

[ivob]

SCT or not, in the future when we are (even more skilled, confident and professional my opinion is we just have to be in moves like this.

Why? The market was rolling over. We saw change (FTT). RTL break on increasing volume, next bar broken on increasing volume, etc. I knew it could be big.

Besides, lunch was over and more volume (so bigger moves) could be expected. I was sharp at that moment. Expecting something because the preceeding trend had clearly run out of steam. I was literally thinking right at that moment: "This is significant."

I still could not take the 20+ points trade.....

Meanwhile I am happy with my 3 points and learned another lesson. (although it was not the first time haha)

regards,
Ivo

Quote from guavaman:

Where I agree and indeed envy those would exercise SCT (or some close approximation of it) I am far away from acquiring that ability. At my current ability I still struggle to determine what constitutes the right side of the market at any given time. This is why I am trying mighty hard to restrict all my entries to the RTL (in some cases Formation BO's) so I do not enter the fray at an inopportune time where understanding the right side of the market is not readily discernible.

Right or wrong I am also trying to limit my information to the 5 min ES and 2 min YM. If I keep realistic expectations and develop the necessary discipline the enter in the manner I have outlined, I believe I can be profitable on a consistent basis. I run into a whole bunch of trouble when I try to determine the tight turns using these tools.
John

 

[guavaman]

Quote from Padawan:

Are there ever points where the market conditions suggest exiting first and then reversing, or is there always enough information out there to reverse all day without ever exiting?

Padawan,

My take on SCT is just that one is always in the market making determinations when to reverse and when to continue to hold. One will graduate to SCT when they can routinely nail the best exit of one trade that correlates to the best entry in the opposite direction.

I have some ability to do this when the market is trending strong in one direction (although the two times it happened today didn't work out so well ) however, it is when there are turns in close proximity of each other that cause me distress. Best for me to stick t RTL BO exits or formation BO's.

Just my thoughts.

-guava

 

[Tums]

Don't think "Exit"...



You only "Exit" when you "Give up".

or "Exit" at EOD.

 

[FerdinandAlx]

Quote from ivob:

SCT or not, in the future when we are (even more skilled, confident and professional my opinion is we just have to be in moves like this.

If you make sure you're consistently in moves like these you'll be consistently profitable.

Even if you screwed up and lost 7.5 points yesterday and 12.5 points the day before that, you'd still have made a total of 10 points just by holding through this one move.

 

[Padawan]

Quote from guavaman:

Padawan,

My take on SCT is just that one is always in the market making determinations when to reverse and when to continue to hold. One will graduate to SCT when they can routinely nail the best exit of one trade that correlates to the best entry in the opposite direction.

I have some ability to do this when the market is trending strong in one direction (although the two times it happened today didn't work out so well ) however, it is when there are turns in close proximity of each other that cause me distress. Best for me to stick t RTL BO exits or formation BO's.

Just my thoughts.

-guava

Thanks. The exception being VDU/CCC, right?

 

[Avi 8]

Quote from guavaman:

...I missed the entire down move...

And I say, so what!

I look at these moves as a gift from the market for 'doing the work'. Will this be the last time the market ever moves 30 pts in 50 min. NO!

Use these times as motivation to continue the journey.

Another way to look at it: You did recognize the opportunity, and you are learning how to be on that ride in the future. Be positve about the steps you make. Leave the negative thoughts about what could have been to others.

I can't emphasize this enough, record the screen and then debrief these particular areas for clues.

Other people have already given clues that were just on the ES, what other signals were there on the YM to get you in earlier or to confirm later?

No other 'tools' were needed to be on that ride. Some just use the ES!

 

[guavaman]

Quote from Tums:

Don't think "Exit"...



You only "Exit" when you "Give up".

or "Exit" at EOD.

Tums,

That is a beautiful and inspirational sentiment but (just speaking for me), not realistic.

At my current level I am not that adept at the JHM. I have come to terms of late that I am a solid "beginner" trader (beginner, intermediate and advanced). This is really not so bad. I wish I was more skilled than I am, but it is a start. Its a far piece from where I was in June with no direction and even worse, no hope.

My goal each day has developed into first identifying what the right side of the market is. Second enter that side as close to the RTL as I can. Third exit when there is sufficient evidence that the trend is weakening (or the RTL if it is not too far away).

For far too long I wanted to believe that the method would save me from myself. Meaning, there would be nothing required of me but the proper MADA and there would be any requirement of self control on my part. Something I find difficult to handle. This is not the case. Perhaps there will come a day where I am slaloming through the day with full reliance on my ability to determine exactly what to do, but that day is not today. Today I am focused on executing the method the best I can by employing as much self discipline as I can muster to garner enough points to be comfortably positive. Then build on this and gain confidence instead of trying to trade above my potential everyday and end the day frustrated and dispirited. This has been my experience anyway.

I know this is much more of a response than required based on your comment, but I am feeling a bit verbose this evening .

 

[TIKITRADER]

Quote from guavaman:


Today I am focused on executing the method the best I can

That right there. . . says it all.
It is a long process of learning.
Take it piece by piece and enjoy the learning.
It will take many years to become advanced. Accept and embrace that.
Nothing wrong with being completely honest with yourself and where you are.
You are a better person for that.
It will fit together at the right time, as the months to years pass, your foundation will become solid.

Looks like you are already on the right path. You know who you are, that is a good thing.
I know who I am, and I am just fine with that.
I am a beginner.

 

[Padawan]

Quote from guavaman:

Tums,

That is a beautiful and inspirational sentiment but (just speaking for me), not realistic.

At my current level I am not that adept at the JHM. I have come to terms of late that I am a solid "beginner" trader (beginner, intermediate and advanced). This is really not so bad. I wish I was more skilled than I am, but it is a start. Its a far piece from where I was in June with no direction and even worse, no hope.

My goal each day has developed into first identifying what the right side of the market is. Second enter that side as close to the RTL as I can. Third exit when there is sufficient evidence that the trend is weakening (or the RTL if it is not too far away).

For far too long I wanted to believe that the method would save me from myself. Meaning, there would be nothing required of me but the proper MADA and there would be any requirement of self control on my part. Something I find difficult to handle. This is not the case. Perhaps there will come a day where I am slaloming through the day with full reliance on my ability to determine exactly what to do, but that day is not today. Today I am focused on executing the method the best I can by employing as much self discipline as I can muster to garner enough points to be comfortably positive. Then build on this and gain confidence instead of trying to trade above my potential everyday and end the day frustrated and dispirited. This has been my experience anyway.

I know this is much more of a response than required based on your comment, but I am feeling a bit verbose this evening .

Guava, I'm also feeling a bit "loquacious" myself this evening. Practicing a lot of wash trades gave me confidence that I can get in and out without much if any harm. Not sure if you've worked much on washes or not, but practicing them regularly might help. Do you watch American football? When I wash, it's like playing quarterback and avoiding a sack so the team doesn't lose any yardage and stays in position (mentally also) to make the first down or a touchdown on the next play. While I'm terrible with analogies, I've seen the wash trade described as the key survival tool.

 

[guavaman]

Quote from Padawan:

I've seen the wash trade described as the key survival tool.

How bout them Cowboys!

Agreed, when I am on my game and committed to do what the market says and not give in to what I want, I exit when the market gives me the first signs of not moving in my favor.

Incidentally, for me this usually will happens when I do not enter at times with sufficient data sets supporting an entry but I am reacting to what Price happens to be doing.

-guava out till tomorrow, gotta finish the video replay and debrief before midnight

Thanks for everyones input.