Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
I entered short soon after the open of that bar and closed for a loss before the close of the same bar. I was attempting to answer the quiz with the three signals I saw. Perhaps I should have been more specific.
At the open of this bar I was anticipating a point 3 down to show up soon. ES was in a forming pennant, so I was looking to the YM which was also in a forming pennant. The YM then breaks out of its forming pennant on very strong PRV. ES also ticking down on strong PRV.
Ahh! That must be the point 3 down I am expecting...
THEN the bar makes a new high.
There was a discussion recently on situations where the jokari window "appears" to fail. I took this as one of those situations so I left the channel in place after the next bar moved down.
I haven't traded at the time, so my judgment may be affected by what happened ... I also confess that in real-time I might've drawn too that "invented" down channel that others have drawn. That might've postponed my reversal to long point.
Avi 8, I'd like to see how you annotated that period, and how you traded it (and also how you should've traded it, if different).
I'd also like to see other advanced traders' opinions: R/R, Tums, WGTrader, etc. You know who you are guys ... Don't be shy
Spydertrader, what's the correct way of trading this period?
Thanks
EDIT: "whutte" means "white" ... in Klingonese
Avi 8, I'd like to see how you annotated that period, and how you traded it (and also how you should've traded it, if different).
I'd also like to see other advanced traders' opinions: R/R, Tums, WGTrader, etc. You know who you are guys ... Don't be shy
Spydertrader, what's the correct way of trading this period?
Thanks
EDIT: "whutte" means "white" ... in Klingonese
First off, Stop trading until you clear up a few things. Second, Post a chart so that others may 'see through your eyes' and better provide assistance. Third, Learn to 'see' Lateral Movement, and based on context, understand what the market is telling you during these periods.
Actually, the above statement is incorrect. Your inability to remain consistantly profitiable has nothing to do with how frequently you trade. It has to do with your inability to 'see' the signals provided by the market.
Again, Lateral Movement (and in this case the specific type known as Lateral Formation) provides signals based on context. learn what must come next in these scenarios immediately.
Sequences. Sequences. Sequences. Point One, Point Two, Point Three. While you are looking for signals for change, also watch for reasons to hold (such as when Price heads from Point Two to Point Three).
This area has a subtle difference from the previous. This area has a formation. How do formations fit into the sequences? What must come next after a formation?
Again, Three ways for Price to move from Point One to Point Two. Three ways for Price to move from Point Two to Point Three. One way for Price to move from Point Three into the channel. If you do not know these sequences, learn them before taking your next trade.
MACD??? Are you serious?. Price and Volume tells you all you need to know on each and every single bar. If it doesn't, check the YM. If you still see no signal, then exit the trade because you most assuridly missed something significant. Kindly, remove the indicators from your chart and monitor Price and Volume. Sheesh.
Why not take a few days and monitor bar by bar, and ask yourself what signal the market provides? Continuation or Change? When you get the signal wrong, note the bar, and during EOD debrief, see what the YM told you during that time. The only rule is this: You cannot make a decision until the end of the bar, but you must make a decision at the end of the bar. Feel free to mentally walk through the decision process as the bar unfolds, but do not mentally (or sim) 'take the trade' until the end of the bar. Feel free to post (with a chart this time) any areas which provide confusion.
- Spydertrader
Evidently you missed Journal One where for an entire year I posted the stocks to trade the night before the trading day while providing the exact signal which triggered a trade well in advance of the actual signal materializing. In Journal Two, I posted blotters and execution reports. My reward for such activity? Accusations of photoshopping results and front - running those I attempted to help. Since then, I no longer post execution reports or blotters. The hassle just isn't worth it. Besides, if you cried bullshit over Mr_Black's $2500, anyone could anticipate your response to my trades. Oddly enough, not caring whether or not anyone believes my results hasn't effected my profitiability in the slightest.
Lastly, I'd have been much more impressed had you simply met the minimum standard required by actually offering an apology. You didn't. Your failure to 'cowboy up' and do the right thing says more about the quality of your own character than those whom you question.
You have been weighed, you have been measured, and you have been found wanting.
- Spydertrader
Quote from cnms2:
I haven't traded at the time, so my judgment may be affected by what happened ... I also confess that in real-time I might've drawn too that "invented" down channel that others have drawn. That might've postponed my reversal to long point.
Avi 8, I'd like to see how you annotated that period, and how you traded it (and also how you should've traded it, if different).
I'd also like to see other advanced traders' opinions: R/R, Tums, WGTrader, etc. You know who you are guys ... Don't be shy
Spydertrader, what's the correct way of trading this period?
Thanks
EDIT: "whutte" means "white" ... in Klingonese
I am far from an advanced level trader. LOL
I don't have much to offer, other than this picture from Pg 1 of the Futures Journal...
Just follow the sequence turn-by-turn. It is all there.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=833448
p.s. Keep it simple; don't try to read messages that are not there.
If you spent as much time learning about the markets and working through the journals annotating, posting charts, what to look for, instead of wasting it on these postings of "give me your trades", you'd all be much richer for the experience, in all senses of the word.
I am under no obligation to provide you with my trades. I put in the work, as have some of the other folk who post here, and have results.
Well, some of you say you want to learn, but all you really want is, somebody to tell you what to do and show you their trades.
It's only human, but that is a symptom of why you aren't making money in the first place giving in to those obvious human shortcomings.
I don't recall you posting any charts or any of your trades.
Here is my P & L, I enjoy this kind of success almost every day
Now you want the time stamps for my trades? Well, you ain't getting them.
I suggest you pull some charts up and try to identify my trades.
Happy hunting
You talk crap!
It's obvious to Jack and even me that you are not going to make it to the millionaires' rank, your loss not mine
The following assumes all decisions and actions take place at the close of each bar discussed (except for Bar One).
Before the close of Bar 1, The YM creates an Outside Bar on increasing Red Volume signaling short. Those traders who do not feel the need to wait until market 'sync' therefore are short before the close of Bar 1 on the ES. Since ES bar One opened higher on increasing black, we have an IBGS on Bar 1 ES by the close indicating a short signal. Bar 2 ES heads lower on increasing red exactly as expected. We hold.
Bar Three moves lower on decreasing Volume and we therefore expect the trend to change. However, since we don't want to trade Bewtween Points Two and Three (and we have yet to form a Point Three Channel) we hold through the anticipated change expecting Price to Retrace from Point Two to Point Three.
Bar Four heads lower on increasing Volume, but Price closes back within the previous bar (lateral movement) which confirms our previous signal for change. We now expect Price to either retrace up and back to the not yet formed Point Thyree or move laterally (left to right) between Points Two and Three.
Bar Five provides decreasing black volume exactly as expected for a down channel retrace. We continue to hold.
Bar Six shows increasing Black Volume - which we do not expect in a down channel- but also shows an IBGS (signal for change). In other words, had we been long, we were just told to get back short. But, we are already short from bar one, so we hold.
Bar seven shows descreasing red Volume. Not what we expect after a Point Three, but Price still moves in our favor so we hold.
Bar eight shows up in real time as an increasing red Bar with Price moving lower. Excellent, we have confirmed our Point Three Down Channel!! However, by End of Bar, Price has turned into an Outside Bar with increasing black Volume. Certainly, not what we had in mind for a Down Channel, and as such, we expect the trend to change. Reverse Long.
Bar Nine shows Price moving Lateraly and forms a Pennant. Cool, we confirmed our change in direction. Although we would prefer Price to have headed higher, the market did show us the anticipated change. As a result, we hold anticipating a BO on increasing Volume from the pennant.
Bar ten shows the BO on increasing black, so we again hold.
Bar eleven we anticipate more increasing Volume, but instead we see decreasing Volume. While we would normally expect the trend to change, we hold as we would also expect the change in trend to create the Point Two to Point Three retrace. As a result, we once again hold long.
Bar 12 forms and the market heads higher on increasing Volume instead of retracing. Cool. We have a rocket. All we need now do is find a retrace (so we can annotate Point Two to Point Three) and then we can locate the signal for change.
Bar 13 shows us decreasing Volume, but fails to retrace as Bar 14 again rockets higher on increasing black. We hold both bars - still looking for this retrace whaich surely must arrive soemtime soon.
Bar 15 has Price moving higher on more increased Volume, but also on signaificantly less volatility. Maybe now we will see Price move from Point Two to Point Three. We still hold since we don't trade retraces (except those which form the FTT).
Bar 16 has price move laterally on decreasing black Volume and exactly what we would expect during an up channel lateral movement. Since Price often moves laterally from point two to Point Three, we can now start to look for our Point Three and its confirmation of increased Volume. We still hold long.
Bar 17 confirms our Point Three on increasing black. We hold long.
Bar 18 gives us more increasing black which seems normal enough, but Price shows an IBGS - a signal for change. Since we already had our Point Three confirmed, we can take this signal for change and head short (or exit since in this exercise the market day ended at 11:00 AM Eastern Time).
Hope everyone found the above walk through useful.
- Spydertrader