Is Trading Just Guessing?
- Thread starter macattack
- Start date
If you have insufficient information then you won't make a profit over the long-run, unless you are very lucky. If you have sufficient information, you should make a fairly reliable long-run profit.
So, if your long-run results are unprofitable or pure luck, you were guessing. If they are reliably profitable, you weren't guessing. Helpful huh?
So, if your long-run results are unprofitable or pure luck, you were guessing. If they are reliably profitable, you weren't guessing. Helpful huh?
this is how i trade:
1. I objectively identify my edges.
2. I predefine the risk of every trade.
3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them.
Entering the position I know:
1. Anything can happen.
2. I don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.
1. I objectively identify my edges.
2. I predefine the risk of every trade.
3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them.
Entering the position I know:
1. Anything can happen.
2. I don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.
Good post, ashantt 
It's worth remembering that operating a casino is also "gambling", but all of Las Vegas was built on a relatively tiny house edge.... And most insurance companies (pretty much analogous to delta neutral option sellers or other hedged positions) do pretty well for themselves by accepting and hedging risk. Any one trade is certainly gambling, just as is any one spin of a roulette wheel, and no casino is going to bet the house on one spin (thus table limits). As the number of spins or trades approaches infinity, the expectation is more statistically quantifiable. The probability of a profitable trade is never 100%, and it is never zero, so I suppose that is gambling, but over time, if you have a small edge, the results will become a more of a certainty. As a trader, I quantify and hedge my risks and work hard for a small edge, and it pays me a living over time.
What??!!
ashantt plagiarized?
I bought the Douglas book in '95. Read it and then sold it b/c I had thought it was junk.
ET hypes it like it is some bible. Looked to buy the book recently.
Discovered that Douglas raised the price of his book by about 100% since '95.
WTF! His book sux. It's like a confession on why he failed at trading.
I don't need his book. Would only serve as entertainment.