Is Trading Just Guessing?

[konviction]

Trading is making an intelligent, educated guess based on a set of rules with a known probability of success.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from konviction:

Trading is making an intelligent, educated guess based on a set of rules with a known probability of success.

and guessing is?

 

[ocean5]

Quote from oldtime:

ocean5, I know you have a thing about the difference between "thinking" and "knowing".

They have volumes in the Philopsphy department library debating as to whether it is ever actually possible to know anything.

The idea isn't to know if "Trading is Just Guessing" the idea is to just talk about what you think about it.

You're forgiven

In a pure debating that is not backed with the real knowledge and experience you are usually nowhere.Truth will never appear in a pure kitchen debating.You are out after the pure debating with the same things in your mind you came in.

Thank you.

 

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Quote from PointOne:

I speak Hershey, here's a working explanation:

IF you can establish what is going on up to now [in terms of price volume channels on 3 levels etc] and form a hypothesis of what must happen next in the price volume sequence AND draw up a plausible counter hypothesis with the opposite conclusion THEN at some instant one of these hypotheses will be falsified and you can trade the other with certainty.

And here is the reality: By the time one of these hypothesis is falsified it is too late to do anything. If you entered under one set of assumptions and waiting fr the market to confirm or invalidate, - it will cost you to find out. The cost is imposed by the market itself in the form of the loss the trader will experience.

the trouble with you, the likes of you, the hersheys and todds of the world is that none of you has ever traded or even watched the market

if you did, you would immediately notice that the approach you are describing is useless to extract the market offer

I challenge you to monitor the market with what you described in mind and see for yourself.

Static charts are useless for that. I don't know why you people posted those with supposedly tradable gaussians for years, when it is obvious that not a single PFC posted by todd correctly anticipated the market action on the next day after degapping.

Stop wasting your time. hershey is a quack

 

[oldtime]

Quote from ocean5:

In a pure debating that is not backed with the real knowledge and experience you are usually nowhere.Truth will never appear in a pure kitchen debating.You are out after the pure debating with the same things in your mind you came in.

Thank you.

yeah, but we're not debating, we're just talking.

Do you get in a lot of fights at bars?

 

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Quote from Nebuchadnezzar:

And here is the reality: By the time one of these hypothesis is falsified it is too late to do anything. If you entered under one set of assumptions and waiting fr the market to confirm or invalidate, - it will cost you to find out. The cost is imposed by the market itself in the form of the loss the trader will experience.

elsewhere paddler alludes childishly to the use of finer tools to counter this problem, he probably read to much makosgu's nonsense

since fractals fail, one can't anticipate the market correctly and by adjusting one has to act within certain limitations regardless of resoluton

hense are the losses that hershey trader always esxperience

it is rather pitiful that after so many years you are still following the old fart when it is quite obvious that both he and todd are wrong

 

[konviction]

Quote from oldtime:

and guessing is?

It's the same as I said above, just in an elaborate way.

 

[PointOne]

Quote from Nebuchadnezzar:

And here is the reality: By the time one of these hypothesis is falsified it is too late to do anything. If you entered under one set of assumptions and waiting fr the market to confirm or invalidate, - it will cost you to find out. The cost is imposed by the market itself in the form of the loss the trader will experience.

Oh good, the possibility of civil discussion on the difficulties in "differentiating". You raise some valid points about your experience with the method - believe me I understand the frustrations. Holding and hoping are not recommended - the trade should go your way almost immediately...

How else could one logically approach a problem such as the market without testing for 2 contradictory hypotheses? I suppose you could guess or just wing it.

There will be times where 2 hypotheses look equally plausible (possibly not to the expert) and a time when one of these hyps falls away (sooner than you realise, apparently). When this occurs there is a profitable trade to be had. As this is not predicting, one has to monitor for the next bend in the road which is signalled in advance.

Quote from Nebuchadnezzar:
the trouble with you, the likes of you, the hersheys and todds of the world is that none of you has ever traded or even watched the market

Oh dear. Civil discussion terminated.

 

[ammo]

Quote from oldtime:

and guessing is?

guessing is that a bus,cab,extraterrestial,wont come out of the blue and run you down while crossing the street.simple,but the risk is always unknown,albeit small,so mathimaticaly the risk exists,so even miniscule,its still a bet/gamble,an absolute would be nature reoccuring among multiple species (plants/animals) that we will re create,eat,drink,shit ,exist until we don't..dont let math cloud your thinking ,there are very few absolutes in life..mathematicaly everything but nature is a gamble,and the nature argument can be debunked with math,but the overall summation never wavers

 

[ocean5]

''think about this:

Yes, always yes.

In one word : yes.''

''yes''??? i thought you`d say ''the bookmark'' LOL!!!