Is Trading Itself a Bad Trade? I Analyzed the Industry- Prove Me Wrong

First you have to define what is trading.

I once go long on the NIY at about 18000 with the intention of holding it, rolled it a few time and exit at about 22000. Is it trading or investing?

I hold some of the stocks long term but I also sell them as appropriate and I also trade interest rates, am I a trader or investor?
 
First you have to define what is trading.

I once go long on the NIY at about 18000 with the intention of holding it, rolled it a few time and exit at about 22000. Is it trading or investing?

I hold some of the stocks long term but I also sell them as appropriate and I also trade interest rates, am I a trader or investor?
You are not an investor if your short term loser becomes your long term buy and hold.
 
Viewers,

I want to thank you for your recent comments, they appear to be more interesting and thought-provoking than the attacks earlier in the forum.

To contribute to this discussion. In my opinion, there is a clear difference between:

1. Having a positive passion (aka obsession or 'calling') for an endeavour - for example, a person with artistic personality characteristics would be more passionate about creative activities.
2. Having an endeavour that 'pays the bills.' In other words, society/the economy values the person enough to pay him well. Or to put it another way, you provide a service/product which 'the market' values enough to pay you well for it.
3. Ideally, somebody would pursue an endeavour that is both 1 & 2.

I think too many people on this thread have their minds confused/infected by the 'follow your passion' psychobabble out there and this has affected their decisions about their trading. I agree that a passion for something can motivate you through grinding boredom and set-backs. However, unless number 2 above takes place you are, unfortunately, misguided in the direction of your work. The ultimate goal is to make a profit or achieve quantifiable success.

Here is an example of 'passion psychobabble'. Jeff Bezos tells everyone to 'follow their passion'. However, in the next video you will see people who work for him in his fulfillment warehouses (some of whom are driven to suicide by exhaustion and the horrendous conditions).


I spoke to an English literature graduate (who told me he followed his passion when he chose his degree) who worked in such a warehouse. He had an appalling story.


Similar contrast with Steve Jobs and Chinese workers throwing themselves out of windows to commit suicide.

In other words, I would suggest combining your passion with a skill that has value to society/the economy enough that you will be ultimately paid for it. Perhaps measured by a positive risk-adjusted P&L? Of course, if you refer to the title of my thread, the evidence suggests trading itself might not be the best 'trade' for this (except for a tiny minority).

Of course, Bezos follows his passion and gets paid for it (1&2). His mistress, private jets, multiple homes, skin care program and great tan are a testament to this. The English literature graduate I met had to urinate in a bottle in one of his warehouses (1) to hit his targets and avoid getting fired.

Both followed their passions. One of them drinks expensive wine from his bottles.


The English lit grad gave up on his passion and decided to work in a warehouse.

Still, it’s just a stepping stone and creating some clarity on what they want and whether they are willing to go for it with what comes after life in an Amazon Warehouse.
 
I know this thread is a couple of weeks old, but for anyone who is interested, I feel fairly confident that I have uncovered the true identity of "cityboy12." If not, then I have stumbled across someone whose place of origin, life experiences and expressed opinions are parallel those of cityboy12 in a "ripley's believe it or not" manner. Just watch this 12 minute youtube interview with none other than (drum roll, please): Anton Kreil! (Am I the only one who thinks that name sounds like a James Bond villain?) Yes, I know that one or more previous commenters already suspected that cityboy12 was Kreil (although cityboy was evasive when that suspicion was raised), but I really think this interview confirms it beyond a reasonable doubt:
 
Bear with me on this one... Ultimately, as traders we are looking for risk/reward, managing our resources (including finite time) and risk... and making a profit.

I have working both as a stockbroker, portfolio manager, in sales and also within the brokerage industry on behalf of platform on a journey of discovery which took a number of years. I found

1. Fraudulent educators (behaving much like carnival barkers or snake oil salesmen).
2. Arcades/prop shops (those that are still around) essentially pyramiding off of their traders (desk fees, commissions) as their business model.
3. Market makers (ahem..bucket-shops) whose business model is incentivized by you losing money.
4. Transfer of risk onto 'staff' members (self-employment is not employment unless you own equity in the company) and a promise of earnings does not pay the bills and is a risk-less promise to the person making it.
5. Big well-resourced HFT funds with huge advantages- essentially, cartels or monopolies within their spaces.
6. Aggressives sales practices - often defrauding the elderly, naive and weak.
7 Stock price manipulators (pink sheets, AIM anyone?)
8 Gambling addiction - destroying lives, relationships and net worths - some people need help.
9 Structural changes in the industry - including constant regulatory change
10 Automation - roboadvice and AI reducing the need for human trading (it is not 2009 but 2019 , traders are now programmers).
11 Less and less alpha- witness the decline in the HF industry.
12 Psychopathic managers - finance seems to attract them.
13 Indebted students being taken advantage of by employers

I could go on...but the biggest statistic is the very very low chance of success (depending on which study you read, less than a fraction of 1% and, even there, you will probably make less money than a teacher or policeman). Don't forget that ROI means that you invest resources (including the precious commodity of your time) with an anticipation of reward. Investing in trade school certifications will give you a higher ROI over time at lower risk (particularly if you save early and use point 3 below).

I applied analytical tools like the Carver Matrix or Game Theory then I researched/ looked at options like...

1. Own the house - become a market maker or retail broker. But the regulations (such as capital adequacy) have 'gamed out' the new entrants and protected the cartel. Increasing changes away from commission to fee models and transparency.
2. Use other people's money (heads we win, tails you lose). People forget that hedge fund managers don't pay out when performance is negative, they just reap the rewards when/if it is. Regulations also a barrier. However, usually you are undercapitalized and can't compete. A start-up hedge fund managing millions can make you less than a good tradesman. Less and less alpha.
3. Choose another investment game - the power of compounding ? (Remember Buffet's bet anyone?) Wealth management (using low cost ETFs etc)
4. Get a skill and charge a fee- I now have a fee-based business and my income grows steadily. Ultimately, unlimited upside and limited downside.
5. Get evil - create a training school for prospective traders, set up an offshore FX shop, fleece your 'employees',etc
6 etc

I went with 3 & 4 with 2 kicking in in a year or two (specialising in very niche areas of the markets) once I have solid cashflow elsewhere.

I remember the lyrics of a song ...'Suppose they gave a war and no-one came..'.? Isn't trading about analyzing the game itself?

Prove me wrong guys...am I missing something?

What has any of this to do with just trading your money and making a profit? The institutional side of the business does not have anything to do with me making a living, which I do.
 
Back
Top