Is Trading Itself a Bad Trade? I Analyzed the Industry- Prove Me Wrong

[SimpleMeLike]

That would take another study. However, I would caution you to come to the conclusion that simply working harder will make you successful. This false idea is proposed by a lot of 'feel-good' motivational speakers. It can be a contributing factor, but will be one in a multi-variate explanation.

As an example, Warren Buffet is a multi-millionaire but he does not work millions of times harder than somebody from the ghetto who makes a fraction of what he does.

The 'work ethic' programming is used to brainwash people in many ways as is the 'be positive' programming which suspends critical thought and makes people more susceptible to sales tactics.

cityboy12,

This is correct. Working hard is a contributing factor that leads to goals accomplishment.

Having access to quality material, quality mentors/teachers, and working smart are also contributing factor.

For example, I bought a trading system 2 years ago and work really hard to follow the rules of the trading systems and still loss money after xx trades. Why did I lose money, because I failed to prove to myself that the system had proven historical success. I did not work smart.

 

[schweiz]

I would caution you to come to the conclusion that simply working harder will make you successful.

After more than 2 decades of intraday trading I know what the right conclusion for me is. Also what mistakes I made, where I lost a lot of time and money, and what finally got me (beyond) the profits I wanted to make.

I underestimated the thousands of hours needed, the fake aha moments when I thought I made it, the detremental impact on my ego, the big losses $$$...
But I also underestimated what I could achieve. Far beyond what I was dreaming of (after a reality check that tempered my initial expectations).

 

[cityboy12]

cityboy12,

This is correct. Working hard is a contributing factor that leads to goals accomplishment.

Having access to quality material, quality mentors/teachers, and working smart are also contributing factor.

For example, I bought a trading system 2 years ago and work really hard to follow the rules of the trading systems and still loss money after xx trades. Why did I lose money, because I failed to prove to myself that the system had proven historical success. I did not work smart.

Exactly. I agree.

Do you now see the value of my posts here. Why I always say that people should check the P&L of the education provider? I am doing it to help people like you and save you your most precious commodity ...time (as well as money)

 

[zenostiffler]

zenostiffler,

Where is higher quality located at?

For very mathematical and quant approaches take a look at Quantopian or Quantconnect. Mostly high quality stuff. The latter offers connections to your broker as well. They are high quality forums linked to high quality back test engines. The place to go for simpler rule based trading based on daily data used to be the Trading Blox Forum which was mostly concerned with trend following in the futures markets. Still some quality posts there but it's gone pretty quiet following a downturn in the fortunes of the CTAs.

Failing that there are many resources surrounding free open source Python backtesters. Backtesting has little predictive value but is probably better than nothing.

 

[zenostiffler]

cityboy12,

This is correct. Working hard is a contributing factor that leads to goals accomplishment.

Having access to quality material, quality mentors/teachers, and working smart are also contributing factor.

For example, I bought a trading system 2 years ago and work really hard to follow the rules of the trading systems and still loss money after xx trades. Why did I lose money, because I failed to prove to myself that the system had proven historical success. I did not work smart.

I hate to say it but buying systems and trai I g courses is not the way to go. Follow my earlier recommendations re Quantopian etc

 

[zenostiffler]

After more than 2 decades of intraday trading I know what the right conclusion for me is. Also what mistakes I made, where I lost a lot of time and money, and what finally got me (beyond) the profits I wanted to make.

I underestimated the thousands of hours needed, the fake aha moments when I thought I made it, the detremental impact on my ego, the big losses $$$...
But I also underestimated what I could achieve. Far beyond what I was dreaming of (after a reality check that tempered my initial expectations).

Very interesting and useful. Can you tell me a little more about your current tactics?

 

[cityboy12]

After more than 2 decades of intraday trading I know what the right conclusion for me is. Also what mistakes I made, where I lost a lot of time and money, and what finally got me (beyond) the profits I wanted to make.

I underestimated the thousands of hours needed, the fake aha moments when I thought I made it, the detremental impact on my ego, the big losses $$$...
But I also underestimated what I could achieve. Far beyond what I was dreaming of (after a reality check that tempered my initial expectations).

Sounds good. But can you quantify?

After 20 years (I assume you are above 40) how much are you earning on a risk adjusted basis? Would this 'edge' be there in 10 years time (i.e. does it have longevity?) How much capital do you trade with?

No need to publish this publicly if it is too frightening for you. Just write it down in private.Then do a transparent audit of the risk/reward vs e.g. becoming a CPA, doctor or plumber, owning some investment properties, investing in a compounding portfolio, traveling the world, working for charity etc.

In 20 years of study you could be speaking multiple languages and have 2 Phd degrees or professional qualifications.

As Nietzsche said...'If you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss gazes back at you.'

 

[MeAgainstTheWorld]

Day trading is hard and many traders do fail at it because:

They are lazy entitled babies who think there is a shortcut to mastering a skill.

They are trying to day trade from their other job's office and get completely distracted. If I have other business going on I shut the screens off as I know you cannot trade distracted. Very few dedicate all day to the craft, they think they can do it part time with little respect and make money. They are fucktarded.

Many have no actual skill in analyzing charts and rely on indicators as a magic tool to tell them when to buy and sell and get chopped to shit.

They have no discipline to sit there day in and day out and focus. They blame the market for their lack of discipline.

Extremely poor money management skills and end up blowing out their piker account.

They research and pay for other people's systems instead of developing their own.

They trade the wrong instrument for their skill, knowledge and risk tolerance.

If they fail a few times they try to validate their failure by claiming it cannot be done and bitch and moan rather than work harder.

If it were easy everyone would be doing it. Most fail because of reasons above and they never correct their mistakes. Failure breeds failure.

Studies on day trading are bullshit that can be detroyed by anyone with even Statistics 101 course/background.

If you rely on a study of day trading to make a claim, you are proving to the rest of us why you fail because you fall under many of the categories above.

Fucking based! Thanks Sir.

 

[volpri]

The markets are uncertain. Matter of fact they are filled with uncertainty. They always have been and always will be. That is why a certain science such as “math” can NEVER and WILL NEVER be able to box in the markets. There are simply too many variables...too many customers...too many players...too many orders (known and unknown)..too much news..real and fake...too many known and unknowable reasons to calculate...too many events yet to happen...

These things said...the markets do leave footprints and the markets do have inertia... those two things together can give a trader an edge but he or she has to know how to read the markets and extrapolate. But even that is not certain but can give one some probabilities or better said, a range of possibilities to work off from. That is the best it gets. Now i got to get busy trading.....ROFLMAO

 

[zenostiffler]

The markets are uncertain. Matter of fact they are filled with uncertainty. They always have been and always will be. That is why a certain science such as “math” can NEVER and WILL NEVER be able to box in the markets. There are simply too many variables...too many customers...too many players...too many orders (known and unknown)..too much news..real and fake...too many known and unknowable reasons to calculate...too many events yet to happen...

These things said...the markets do leave footprints and the markets do have inertia... those two things together can give a trader an edge but he or she has to know how to read the markets and extrapolate. But even that is not certain but can give one some probabilities or better said, a range of possibilities to work off from. That is the best it gets. Now i got to get busy trading.....ROFLMAO

Try telling that to Jim Simons? Agreed on unpredictabilty however if you lack of a structural advantage.Jim Simons presumably has such an advantage.