Is Trading Itself a Bad Trade? I Analyzed the Industry- Prove Me Wrong

I can help you with @schweiz. I was asked to provide any proof that I worked with OPM. I produced a $12MM account(s) from 2005 as it's what I had on hand and only because the fund is no longer in operation.

@schweiz replied in kind with an EOY futures run from 2002 showing a $0.00 balance.

Stiffler stated that systems "don't work" yet he's pushing a book on mechanical systems. Cityboy and Stiffler provide no proof to back up their statements regarding their success in the markets.

This is simply an elaborate troll from multinicks: cityboy and stiffy.
 
volpri said:
The markets are uncertain. Matter of fact they are filled with uncertainty. They always have been and always will be. That is why a certain science such as “math” can NEVER and WILL NEVER be able to box in the markets. There are simply too many variables...too many customers...too many players...too many orders (known and unknown)..too much news..real and fake...too many known and unknowable reasons to calculate...too many events yet to happen...

These things said...the markets do leave footprints and the markets do have inertia... those two things together can give a trader an edge but he or she has to know how to read the markets and extrapolate. But even that is not certain but can give one some probabilities or better said, a range of possibilities to work off from. That is the best it gets. Now i got to get busy trading.....ROFLMAO
More...
Sounds mystical...like saying 'I won't let facts get in the way of my version of the truth'. If you believe in your world view you should never be afraid of facts or numbers as all they will do is confirm it. You should never fear the truth as the truth shall set you free. Also, although the truth can be painful, you can make better decisions once you have it. If you use false data, your decisions and your output will fail.

I agree that the markets are not always simple with multiple variables and probabilities of outcome. On the basic level, however, every trader has to look at the cold hard number which is his risk-adjusted P&L. This objectively verifiable fact (in the form of mathematics) tells him/her if he/she is successful or believes in magic fairy dust or has false emotions or delusions.

You can't ignore mathematics in trading ins the same way as you can't pay for your electricity bill with emotions. Your multi-screen set-up will not work when you switch it on in the morning if you try to pay for it with feelings.
 
cityboy12 said:
Looks like things have calmed down recently. I was hoping for more data and case studies.

Here is the one regarding the Taiwan traders.

https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day Traders/Day Trading and Learning 110217.pdf

Some quotes

'However, very few traders are predictably profitable.In the last column of Table 3, we see that only 9.81% (3.20%+6.61%) of day trading volume is generated by predictably profitable day traders. From column 8, we can calculate that these predictably profitable traders constitute less than 3% of all daytraders on an average day'

Personal note: Profitable is not quantified or defined in comparison with other occupations/enterprises and their risk/reward. Of the 3% I doubt many make significant money over the long term.


'In Taiwan, day traders, in aggregate, lose money. Therefore it is not rational for a risk-averse investor with no special claim to superior ability to undertake day trading in hopes of discovering that he is amongst the chosen few. Furthermore, it is not rational for day traders who have incurred persistent losses to continue day trading for the purpose of learning about their ability. So why do investorstake up day trading and why do so many persist in the face of losses? We consider three broadly defined answers to this .'

I will leave you to read 1 and 2...but reading this thread I see a lot of evidence of number 3

'...Third, day traders may trade for non-financial motivations including entertainment, a taste for gambling, and the desire to impress others (see, e.g. Grinblatt and Keloharju (2009)). Some investors may enjoy the process of day trading so much that they are willing to persist in the face of regular losses. Some investors may be attracted to the casino like qualities of day trading with its frequent bets, wins, and losses.Some investors may choose to day trade in hopes of impressing others.'
More...
I agree.

Day trading is probably a negative sum game even factor in the upward bias of stocks. So, if all day traders in aggregate make money, then it will be arbitraged away, otherwise, there is risk free money to be had.

All those who train to make the NBA, get an Olympic skating gold medal, pay for camps, coaches ... will in aggregate lose money too.

To me the most encouraging part of the study is that some were profitable, and those that made it had a pattern, it is not random.

Us human survived and thrived because there were always some risk takers among us. Those risk takers mostly perished but a few that got out of Africa made us who we are today.

Have a good day.
 
destriero said:
I can help you with @schweiz. I was asked to provide any proof that I worked with OPM. I produced a $12MM account(s) from 2005 as it's what I had on hand and only because the fund is no longer in operation.

@schweiz replied in kind with an EOY futures run from 2002 showing a $0.00 balance.

Stiffler stated that systems "don't work" yet he's pushing a book on mechanical systems. Cityboy and Stiffler provide no proof to back up their statements regarding their success in the markets.

This is simply an elaborate troll from multinicks: cityboy and stiffy.
More...
There is little point in arguing with somebody who is so determined to make enemies. A stock index is a system. And it works. I did not say that systems do not work and I am not pushing a pointless book I wrote 10 years ago. Why do you want to pick a fight? What motivates you? How is picking a fight useful or helpful?
 
zenostiffler said:
I hate to say it but buying systems and trai I g courses is not the way to go. Follow my earlier recommendations re Quantopian etc
More...
zenostiffler,

I agree with buying systems is not the best way to go. But really disagree with buying trading course is not the way to go. If you buying a quality trading course then its good. No knowledge goes unused.
 
destriero said:
I can help you with @schweiz. I was asked to provide any proof that I worked with OPM. I produced a $12MM account(s) from 2005 as it's what I had on hand and only because the fund is no longer in operation.

@schweiz replied in kind with an EOY futures run from 2002 showing a $0.00 balance.

Stiffler stated that systems "don't work" yet he's pushing a book on mechanical systems. Cityboy and Stiffler provide no proof to back up their statements regarding their success in the markets.

This is simply an elaborate troll from multinicks: cityboy and stiffy.
More...
destriero,

You seem to have some trading experience over the past year and some success.

What do you believe or your thoughts for a retail day trader to be successful or consistently profitable?

Please share your thoughts

Thanks
 
zenostiffler said:
There is little point in arguing with somebody who is so determined to make enemies. A stock index is a system. And it works. I did not say that systems do not work and I am not pushing a pointless book I wrote 10 years ago. Why do you want to pick a fight? What motivates you? How is picking a fight useful or helpful?
More...

You've stated that you're here for Schadenfreude... just not when it's directed at you? I pick fights with dilettantes. People like yourself with no edge in the markets which hold themselves out as trading successes. It's one of my edges.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
destriero,

You seem to have some trading experience over the past year and some success.

What do you believe or your thoughts for a day trader to be success or consistent profitable?

Thanks
More...


Bro, you'd become suicidal while viewing all the commas in my IRA. I've been trading since HTC (first gig) to the present day. One prop group, two banks, four funds. Allw ere trading positions. Discretionary.

I have no advice for daytraders. You are welcome.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top