Is Trading Itself a Bad Trade? I Analyzed the Industry- Prove Me Wrong

themickey said:
It's not that, it's distractions like phone ringing, car breaks down, very minor things that play out continually.
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I'm a day trader Mickey, I see what number is calling...most get ignored and if my car breaks down while I'm trading, I am not aware. BTW, I am single and can easily control my environment.
 
cityboy12 said:
OK...I am not promoting Anton Kreil and do not know him. I have no financial interest in this thread (am not seeking a mentor, am not selling a course or book or anything else). I happen to agree with a lot of what he says at the beginning of his presentation and only saw the video earlier today.

He does have an institutional trading background in JP Morgan, Goldman and Lehman brothers if you check the FCA register but this was from some years ago.

https://register.fca.org.uk/ShPo_IndividualDetailsPage?id=003b000000LURNxAAP

In general I encourage nobody to pay anyone to learn to trade unless you see their P&L and also calculate your risk/reward compared to trade or med school or a CPA or STEM degree, for example. Ideally, pay them on a performance fee basis.
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You're promoting a snake oil salesman in an attempt to discredit snake oil salesmen. Kreil was a delta1 execution slave.

The fact that you would promote the Kreil video shows that you have zero institutional experience beyond what sle alluded to; back office plebe at best.
 
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destriero said:
You're promoting a snake oil salesman in an attempt to discredit snake oil salesmen. Kreil worked in asset management and sales. He never traded prop.

The fact that you would promote the Kreil video shows that you have zero institutional experience beyond what sle alluded to; back office plebe at best.
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OK...you have sworn at me and attacked me in the past in this forum. I refer you to previous posts.

1. I am not promoting Anton Kreil. Only linked to the video because I share some of his conclusions regarding the retail brokerage industry. It was an interesting video to share on this forum.
2. In fact, ...once again...I will loop back..very clearly and using simple language as you always seem to misunderstand. I refer you to previous posts for more detail where I have covered this before.

1. I am not a trainer or educator
2. I am not selling anything - no books, no courses - nothing
3. I worked in various roles in the financial services industry -mainly in front office, brokerage and portfolio management roles. Never back office.
4. I was always successful and always made money. I did this to learn the industry from the inside out. Along the way I researched and interviewed informally countless people and learned what 'edge' individuals or businesses had.
4. I do not know Anton Kreil and have absolutely no reason to be selling him or his services so.....

logically and with pauses.....I ...am....not....'promoting'....him.

In fact, in previous posts I encourage people not to pay for trader training at all unless the risk/reward is favourable compared to other investments such as property, med school, a CPA etc. The first step being the P&L of the trader.
 
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cityboy12 said:
OK...you have sworn and attacked me in the past. I refer you to previous posts.

1. I am not promoting Anton Kreil. Only linked to the video because I share some of his conclusions regarding the retail brokerage industry. It was an interesting video to share on this forum.
2. In fact, ...once again...I will loop back..very clearly and using simple language as you always seem to misunderstand. I refer you to previous posts for more detail.

1. I am not a trainer or educator
2. I am not selling anything - no books, no courses - nothing
3. I worked in various roles in the financial services industry -mainly in front office, brokerage and portfolio management roles. Never back office.
4. I was always successful and always made money. I did this to learn the industry from the inside out. Along the way I researched and interviewed informally countless people and learned what 'edge' individuals or businesses had.
4. I do not know Anton Kreil and am not selling him anything so.....

logically and with pauses.....I ...am....not....'promoting'....him.
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Using Kreil is analogous to being a Hitler apologist. You don't quote a fraudster to denounce fraudsters. I hear that Madoff threw a great party.
 
cityboy12 said:
Bear with me on this one... Ultimately, as traders we are looking for risk/reward, managing our resources (including finite time) and risk... and making a profit.

I have working both as a stockbroker, portfolio manager, in sales and also within the brokerage industry on behalf of platform on a journey of discovery which took a number of years. I found

1. Fraudulent educators (behaving much like carnival barkers or snake oil salesmen).
2. Arcades/prop shops (those that are still around) essentially pyramiding off of their traders (desk fees, commissions) as their business model.
3. Market makers (ahem..bucket-shops) whose business model is incentivized by you losing money.
4. Transfer of risk onto 'staff' members (self-employment is not employment unless you own equity in the company) and a promise of earnings does not pay the bills and is a risk-less promise to the person making it.
5. Big well-resourced HFT funds with huge advantages- essentially, cartels or monopolies within their spaces.
6. Aggressives sales practices - often defrauding the elderly, naive and weak.
7 Stock price manipulators (pink sheets, AIM anyone?)
8 Gambling addiction - destroying lives, relationships and net worths - some people need help.
9 Structural changes in the industry - including constant regulatory change
10 Automation - roboadvice and AI reducing the need for human trading (it is not 2009 but 2019 , traders are now programmers).
11 Less and less alpha- witness the decline in the HF industry.
12 Psychopathic managers - finance seems to attract them.
13 Indebted students being taken advantage of by employers

I could go on...but the biggest statistic is the very very low chance of success (depending on which study you read, less than a fraction of 1% and, even there, you will probably make less money than a teacher or policeman). Don't forget that ROI means that you invest resources (including the precious commodity of your time) with an anticipation of reward. Investing in trade school certifications will give you a higher ROI over time at lower risk (particularly if you save early and use point 3 below).

I applied analytical tools like the Carver Matrix or Game Theory then I researched/ looked at options like...

1. Own the house - become a market maker or retail broker. But the regulations (such as capital adequacy) have 'gamed out' the new entrants and protected the cartel. Increasing changes away from commission to fee models and transparency.
2. Use other people's money (heads we win, tails you lose). People forget that hedge fund managers don't pay out when performance is negative, they just reap the rewards when/if it is. Regulations also a barrier. However, usually you are undercapitalized and can't compete. A start-up hedge fund managing millions can make you less than a good tradesman. Less and less alpha.
3. Choose another investment game - the power of compounding ? (Remember Buffet's bet anyone?) Wealth management (using low cost ETFs etc)
4. Get a skill and charge a fee- I now have a fee-based business and my income grows steadily. Ultimately, unlimited upside and limited downside.
5. Get evil - create a training school for prospective traders, set up an offshore FX shop, fleece your 'employees',etc
6 etc

I went with 3 & 4 with 2 kicking in in a year or two (specialising in very niche areas of the markets) once I have solid cashflow elsewhere.

I remember the lyrics of a song ...'Suppose they gave a war and no-one came..'.? Isn't trading about analyzing the game itself?

Prove me wrong guys...am I missing something?
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cityboy12,

Very good post.

Everything you said is right.

I will sum up like this.

Trading is a lose game if you can't consistently make money.

Every trader should be trading and investing for the retirement years.

I choose to work a full time job and trade. win win situation.
 
Actually, that could more sense for some people. A kind of 'side venture', perhaps swing trading on high conviction trades but ideally, investing not trading.
 
destriero said:
Using Kreil is analogous to being a Hitler apologist. You don't quote a fraudster to denounce fraudsters. I hear that Madoff threw a great party.
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You seem very emotional and use emotive characters like Hitler and Madoff to propose your point as well as the word 'fraud' with no evidence.

Once again...looping back....I am not promoting Mr Kreil. I am not selling anything and have no interest in doing so. Based on my experience and research I simply agree with a lot of what he says about the industry in his presentation.
 
cityboy12 said:
You seem very emotional and use emotive characters like Hitler and Madoff to propose your point as well as the word 'fraud' with no evidence.

Once again...looping back....I am not promoting Mr Kreil. I am not selling anything and have no interest in doing so. Based on my experience and research I simply agree with a lot of what he says about the industry in his presentation.
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Emotive characters?

You're either a fraud or a failure; or both. The fact that you can sit through that Kreil rubbish speaks more to your agenda than 240 posts to this absurd thread.

Blocked.
 
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