Is Trading Itself a Bad Trade? I Analyzed the Industry- Prove Me Wrong

Good points, good post, Trend magnet. Even though i enjoyed that post; a smaller % of traders make it. I would not even call firm like VIRT a trading co[WSJ calls them that]; they're market makers.
And while i mostly agree with you post ;averaging down on GM , DAL, AMR was a killer/bankrupt. NOT a stock tip or prediction.:D:D
I share similar experiences to Trendmagnet, about clients.
 
Wise words Cityboy12. It is a great deal of pleasure to read what you have to say. I have been in markets for 30 years or more and seen so many "Market Wizards" come and go including Seykota.

I met the old boy for lunch in Cambridge, England over a decade ago. I much enjoyed his company and his research into equites at that time was excellent. But his glory days were when commodities were booming in the 70s and 80s. He had his time in the sun.

Crispin Odey was an exact contemporary at Christ church Oxford. His performance has been shitty but he is a good salesman. A good collector of fees.

My brother in law sold his hedge fund to LGT Bank In Liechtenstein. Its performance collapsed soon afterwards but again the name of the game was asset gathering.

Take Atradis in Singapore - again people I know. Once the biggest fund there. The managers made hundreds of millions in fees and then closed down 60% when their one trick pony ran out of steam.

People have their time in the sun and then they fade.

Most of the people on this forum wont even have their time in the sun.
%% Good ; but not a prediction,thanks.:cool::cool:
 
In agreement, trading is a bad trade for the majority, however for those who stick it out over many years it can become a good trade.
Trading is good for the soul, much to learn and imo is a window to understanding people.
The responses on this thread an example of how entertaining trading is.
The mention was made, the exception to the 'bad trade' was investing and I fully agree.
This is the reason and generalising here.... (a) it takes many years to learn, (b) when it finally gels how to trade you will have lost a lot of money, (c) it may take some years to recoup those losses, (d) when you are now account positive you are beginning to age, (e) when you age your brain slows, you have lost energy, you DO NOT want to be day trading, believe me. (f) as an older citizen you want quality of life, passive investing is the way and if you wasted years day trading you will not be ready for investing, it's a different mindset and again years of experience on what works and what doesn't work.
Investing can also mean trading, but on longer cycles, I'm personally not a fan of buy & hold unless you began many years ago with a large portfolio to begin with.
 
I have no problem, I will have to blank out my name and NI number as I am a regulated individual and will not incur reputational risk. Then, in all probability, you will say my payslips are fake. Then a new cycle of accusations will be launched from other viewers (further conspiracy theories and ad hominem attacks).

Please, however, remember the premise of the thread is in the title...it is not whether I am a good/bad trader...but if trading itself is a good trade using conventional trading analysis. I refer you to the title again.
Would not the same apply if someone proved you wrong* with their account statements?

* I refer you to the title.
 
Simple law of nature: You need a large number of hunted to sustain a few hunters.

Trading is a good trade if you are the hunter and a bad trade if you are the hunted. After all, the money has to come from someone.
 
OK, you were one of the posters who swore at me in a previous post with no justification. But I didn't take it emotionally.

Instead, I will loop back and repeat clearly what is written in the title and in a number of posts I have made. Very clearly for you.

The premise is not whether I can or cannot trade... the premise is that 'trading itself is not a good trade' if we apply conventional trading mindset/tools to it. It is in the title of the thread. In other words, that there are better trades out there with a better risk/reward than trading itself if we analyze it. How much more clearly can I spell it out?

On your point as to whether I am a good 'trader' or not...that is a side issue and is 'off topic'...but I will address it anyway...and I have already explained...the best traders trade when the odds are clearly and consisently in their favour (it is called 'an edge') and none of them is moronic enought to place a trade with a tiny fraction of a percentage of success with huge downside if other opportunities exist.Which is why, in my opinion, no retail trader will ever become a Steve Cohen.

In my case...the risk/reward was always in my favour in my roles as a portfolio manager or a stockbroker....I always made money. Many of the so-called success stories people mention do a similar thing (and I have given examples). They 'know the game'...witness Buffet ripping off the poor in their mobile homes.

If my clients lost money or made money....I always made money. Ergo...I am and was a good profitable trader. It didn't make sense to play against guys like me and become a retail client on the losing side of the trade...logically...I preferred to be on the right side of the trade.

It is a different mindset that I am trying to share with you...the mindset of a winner...a predator...and survivor. In a way...I am trying to 'raise you up' despite your insults.
:D
 
OK, you were one of the posters who swore at me in a previous post with no justification. But I didn't take it emotionally.

Instead, I will loop back and repeat clearly what is written in the title and in a number of posts I have made. Very clearly for you.

The premise is not whether I can or cannot trade... the premise is that 'trading itself is not a good trade' if we apply conventional trading mindset/tools to it. It is in the title of the thread. In other words, that there are better trades out there with a better risk/reward than trading itself if we analyze it. How much more clearly can I spell it out?

On your point as to whether I am a good 'trader' or not...that is a side issue and is 'off topic'...but I will address it anyway...and I have already explained...the best traders trade when the odds are clearly and consisently in their favour (it is called 'an edge') and none of them is moronic enought to place a trade with a tiny fraction of a percentage of success with huge downside if other opportunities exist.Which is why, in my opinion, no retail trader will ever become a Steve Cohen.

In my case...the risk/reward was always in my favour in my roles as a portfolio manager or a stockbroker....I always made money. Many of the so-called success stories people mention do a similar thing (and I have given examples). They 'know the game'...witness Buffet ripping off the poor in their mobile homes.

If my clients lost money or made money....I always made money. Ergo...I am and was a good profitable trader. It didn't make sense to play against guys like me and become a retail client on the losing side of the trade...logically...I preferred to be on the right side of the trade.

It is a different mindset that I am trying to share with you...the mindset of a winner...a predator...and survivor. In a way...I am trying to 'raise you up' despite your insults.


Aww shucks, thanks.

I've bankrupted two exotics dealers and was a PM for four funds exceeding $1B in AUM. You are what? An equity broker?

I trade on an ISDA. Google it.

Predator (sic). "Equities in Dallas"
 
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Aww shucks, thanks.

I've bankrupted two exotics dealers and was a PM for four funds exceeding $1B in AUM. You are what? An equity broker?

I trade on an ISDA. Google it.

Predator (sic). "Equities in Dallas"
No just an equities broker...I refer you to my previous posts...I did a number of jobs in the industry to learn it 'inside out'....I was also a PM.

But thank you for your input destriero. You aren't swearing as much.
 
Have not seen that reference in a while :p

If @cityboy12 want to find "traders", he should look at PMs multi manager funds or prop firms. These people live and die by their PnL.
Hi,

It wouldn't just be me who would find this helpful. Please remember that, statistically, there has to be people who are in the fraction of a percent of traders who are 'hitting it outside the park'. They exist and must do...statistically. My suspicion, however, is that very very very few of them play the same conventional game as the retail 'hunted' (thank you Ironchief for the word). When I did my research I found none who did this (although that does not mean they don't exist)

Here is an example...everybody called him a 'trader'. You could call him that loosely, but, essentially, he wasn't gifted or clever. He was spoofing the market (more of a 'hunter' than the 'hunted'). The fact that he is 'scruffy' and 'lives with his parents' isn't an indicator that he is smart or some kind of a higher-level genius who forgets to wash because he focuses on equations and abstract physics. Smart people learn the value of hygiene. Rather he is a low social-skill misfit who learned to 'game' the market and was of comparable or lower-level intelligence to the others in the firm.

People who didn't understand his 'game' thought he was smart. A quote.... Another trader said last night: 'Nav was a legend wherever he worked'. Just like a lot of people on this forum praise Steven Cohen or other 'legends'. Cohen has been effusely called a 'genius' by people who did not know what he was doing. In fact, he even called himself a genius.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...it-allegedly-pocketed-stock-market-crash.html

He could be handed a 380 year prison sentence.

Interestingly, the trading firm Futex was one of my case studies and proves another one of my points. They were essentially pyramiding off of their traders (extracting fees and commissions with low risk/reward) and did not have the capital they needed. They went bust. Please research this yourself.
 
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