Is trading Gambling or not .."What say You" Vote here.

Is Trading Gambling or not

  • Gambling

    Votes: 460 35.0%

  • Not Gambling

    Votes: 854 65.0%
  • Total voters
    1,314
  • This poll will close: .
By the time the 1.40 mark is reached the slight martingale effect has also accelerated this. The size of the trades increase. But a straight fall or rise to the 1.40 mark would be needed for ruin.

The accumulated inventory magnifies each pips tick value is your point. The correspoding value however is just as large in the NAV. So if everything is in percent wouldn't the staying power be there?

Also as long as we are between the lines or within the deck....isn't the liklehood of increasing the max DD decreasing as the deck grows?

Michael B.




Quote from mogul:

as long as the up\down trend advances at a sufficiently slow speed such that the realized keeps growing.

But in my example if you find yourself at the 1.40 mark and up to that point your realized have somehow (altough not probably) covered your unrealized to that point, even one more 50-pip increment against your shorts would create a 6,150 pip growth in your unrealized.

It's tough to ascertain the validy by forward testing because it could be a year or more down the road when the unrealized balloons unproportionately
More...
 
Hi,

I'm a newbie and I've been following Sympatico on and off as I think his 'style' of trading has great potential but until he publishes his currently successful system, we are putting pieces of the puzzle together ourselves.

Thank you ES for publishing your version of the system and I look forward to your results.

I so very much wanted to vote for not gambling because that's what one wants from trading especially from this kind of trading system.

However, in my mind, if you have a chance of losing, then that is gambling.

If you have done a backtest of the last ten years, could have started at any point in the last 10 years and coped with every condition then that has certainly loaded the odds in your favour.

I don't know much about FX history but if you went back to the biggest moves in FX history and started at the worst time and the system or %risk can cope with those conditions then you would be moving into the realm of not gambling, because it would be close to certainty you could not lose.

At the moment, it appears the system is 'gambling' the up/down moves fill up realized p/l faster then the negative unrealised p/l hits your margin.

The trick seems to be to optimize profits versus negative unrealized p/l which Sympatico has mastered and the rest of us are struggling with.

I believe that once you have filled the 'pool' and therefore effectively 'cannot lose' then you are no longer gambling. But until then, one is gambling you can fill the pool faster than the negative p/l getting out of hand. Gambling for the long journey rather than the straight dash. But if you can 'guarantee' under all circumstances you can fill the pool without going bust then you are not gambling. Of course, trading more than one currency increases the chances of long journeys and reduces the 'chance/gambling' element.

Phew! Hadn't intended to write all that. So although I want to vote not gambling, I'm going to vote gambling. Once you have filled the pool I will change the vote to 'not gambling' :p

Best regards
Alan
 
Quote from Quah:

The outcome is uncertain, therefore it is gambling. No doubt about it.
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The outcome of each individual event is uncertain. So in isolation, a single trade would be a gamble.

However, over a number of trades, the skew is somewhat different.

Having an edge eliminates gambling.

Having an edge eliminates gambling.

Just one more time for the chorus;

Having an edge eliminates gambling.

Have a nice day
 
Quote from guy2:

Is Day Trading Gambling?
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Excerpt:

"For day trading I chose the mini-sized Dow ($5) Futures (YM). This instrument has variable odds of winning and trading it can be structured such that it has a fixed payout similar to blackjack and roulette. I also define two day trading methods in order to make the comparison. The first day trading method is called random and using this method both direction and time of entry is randomly chosen. The second day trading method is called signaled and using this method both the direction and time of entry is based on a predefined signal. Both methods of day trading use a 20 point target and stop."

:D :D :D
 
Trading is not gambling:

1-You can stop the event at any time you wish. You can't stop the roulette and lose only a little!

2-On the other hand, you can lose all your pssessions in the same 'transaction' by not cutting your losses because trading has no formal ending. You can't add more money to the roulette once it starts to spin!

3-...

4-Pragmatically I don't care as long as I get a profit from trading/gambling. Look at my signature.


:D

__________________
I am a dumb trader. Good, you will inherit pips.
 
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