Is trading Gambling or not .."What say You" Vote here.

Is Trading Gambling or not

  • Gambling

    Votes: 460 35.0%

  • Not Gambling

    Votes: 854 65.0%
  • Total voters
    1,314
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the flukes that makes people in the game look easy and easy money is the new players who got in in a trending market like the last 8 months...so funny these guys really beleive they are good at what they are doing...some even think they are bullet proof...when in fact it is just a good market time window when they got in ...lets see if this guys is still in the business after 5 years.....

i tell you....the guys making 60,000 a month after just 10 months in the markets is just using purely balls as capital....ms. market will cull them out eventually.....do not be concern with these lucky or unlucky folkes..do your own path pace journey
 
on the final run up of the dot com boom...any person,any system any method who goes long makes money....

is it brilliance? skill? heck..these guys just buy...whether in the lows or breakout or whatever...and that since is was a bull market...they eventualy go up...whatever bs/crap methods they "think" they are smart to be doing/"discover"/"invented" LOL!!!...in fact..it was just the market all along....not them.....this is the fun part in watching these genuises go up and fall......the funny part is that they think they have some special approach why they were making money..these guys really beleive that....er....till game is over..do they realize.....NOT!!!!!! LOL......

remember the many trader interviews at the back of active trader magazine....those folkes dont trade anymore..... after market change trend.....LOL...


thats why i tell you folkes..only valid market advisers are those who make money survive at least 5 years continuously...as being under all kind of market conditions...not the FLUKES!!!!..they only add confusion...as their so called methodology/beliefs/approaches was "seemingly" "working" months ago.....LOL!!!!! (hmmm..why is it not working anymore...market must be bad.....LOL)

who will get awake by themselves before the market "awakes' them forcefooly?! LOL......

but then again..some folkes might/do seek advise from lotto winners how they did it.....thinking they can do it AGAIN and AGAIN.....LOL......


 
what wdscott is talking about is scale trading...lots of info and cheap books of this approach

its more of look for being near historic lows prices and then averaging down your position


the minus is that it require large capital,capacity to take in pain for relatively low returns to other methods....it is profitable if you persevere......

i did it with stocks and ok..but of futures and commodities.be sure you got enough reserve capital or you go belly up....require heavy guns to play this style...

given the profile of today's newbie traders you think it suits them?

and the rest with enough skill and capital...they will say..no..we dont need to take that kind of hardship and pain to make our money... :)
 
The part of this strategy that makes me uncomfortable as others is the potential for a huge unrealized "inventory"

in eur\usd example, say you put on contra-trend trades in every 50pip increment.

If the eur\usd goes from 0.8 to 1.4 in a few years span, you will have accumulated an unrealized inventory of 350,000 pips against you.

That same range is 6050 pips from top to bottom. Let's say the extended length of the range with all movement along the way is even 5x the range. That gives you profits of only some 30,000 pips along the way.

Maybe someone has been able to hedge this, I haven't been able to think up one yet...if you put on the same trades in a coorelated pair you are as susceptible to trends in that pair. If both pairs you are trading trend but in opposite direction, you are just as fxxxed since trends are what creates your unrealized

You can make it work live for years as long as the range stays put, but sooner or later it will get you.

And yes, Oanda let's you use a very small increment, but that also goes the other way, your profits will be very small in order to accomodate the eventual expansion

This method basically holds losers forever, and cuts your winners right off

The increments can be spaced out further but then you don't realize the same amount of profit in corrections.

I'm probably just stating the obvious, but that is as far as I got.

Imo, it's no more of a "certainty" as trading any other method. You can just as well treat your realized losses in a conventional trading method as inventory for obtaining realized gains.
 
Ok Fair enough.

But how much flow would be needed to exceed capacity to turn this around?

Could you imagine a condition that "realized" could equal and grow faster than "unrealized"?

I invite you to check in on the Journal from time to time, to see how it's going....

Michael B.



Quote from mogul:

The part of this strategy that makes me uncomfortable as others is the potential for a huge unrealized "inventory"

in eur\usd example, say you put on contra-trend trades in every 50pip increment.

If the eur\usd goes from 0.8 to 1.4 in a few years span, you will have accumulated an unrealized inventory of 350,000 pips against you.

That same range is 6050 pips from top to bottom. Let's say the extended length of the range with all movement along the way is even 5x the range. That gives you profits of only some 30,000 pips along the way.

Maybe someone has been able to hedge this, I haven't been able to think up one yet...if you put on the same trades in a coorelated pair you are as susceptible to trends in that pair. If both pairs you are trading trend but in opposite direction, you are just as fxxxed since trends are what creates your unrealized

You can make it work live for years as long as the range stays put, but sooner or later it will get you.

And yes, Oanda let's you use a very small increment, but that also goes the other way, your profits will be very small in order to accomodate the eventual expansion

This method basically holds losers forever, and cuts your winners right off

The increments can be spaced out further but then you don't realize the same amount of profit in corrections.

I'm probably just stating the obvious, but that is as far as I got.

Imo, it's no more of a "certainty" as trading any other method. You can just as well treat your realized losses in a conventional trading method as inventory for obtaining realized gains.
More...
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

Ok Fair enough.

But how much flow would be needed to exceed capacity to turn this around?

Could you imagine a condition that "realized" could equal and grow faster than "unrealized"?

I invite you to check in on the Journal from time to time, to see how it's going....

Michael B.
More...

as long as the up\down trend advances at a sufficiently slow speed such that the realized keeps growing.

But in my example if you find yourself at the 1.40 mark and up to that point your realized have somehow (altough not probably) covered your unrealized to that point, even one more 50-pip increment against your shorts would create a 6,150 pip growth in your unrealized.

It's tough to ascertain the validy by forward testing because it could be a year or more down the road when the unrealized balloons unproportionately
 
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