Is trading Gambling or not .."What say You" Vote here.

Is Trading Gambling or not

  • Gambling

    Votes: 460 35.0%

  • Not Gambling

    Votes: 854 65.0%
  • Total voters
    1,314
  • This poll will close: .
There are some mathematical types that can trade so much better than I. They could make these systems hum...

Trading is not gambling.... (and you know it).

When the currency in Argentina collapsed, was that bad luck?

The sky is falling...the sky is falling....

Anything can happen....but does this render trading...gambling? I don't think so...

Michael B.
 
Electric,

What you do sounds interesting. Your #2 system is just a series of carry trades where you average down, if I understand correctly. Your backup account is there in case you need more funding to average down. While all three pairs might not goagainst you, it is still possible. There is no guarantee this will not happen. It is still very likly that you could lose, and losr big despite the income from the carrys. While the odds may be in your favor, the possibility of a crippling UNrealized drawdown wiping you out is still there. An UNrealized DD of 90%+ will most certainly take you out of the game.
 
The sub account is cash (third account).....(money is moved in their periodically, perhaps it can be increased to increase the saftey net. Thanks for your observations)

This is not gambling....



Quote from bignatty:

Electric,

What you do sounds interesting. Your #2 system is just a series of carry trades where you average down, if I understand correctly. Your backup account is there in case you need more funding to average down. While all three pairs might not goagainst you, it is still possible. There is no guarantee this will not happen. It is still very likly that you could lose, and losr big despite the income from the carrys. While the odds may be in your favor, the possibility of a crippling UNrealized drawdown wiping you out is still there. An UNrealized DD of 90%+ will most certainly take you out of the game.
More...
 
Well, what do you suppose is your max DD? Just curious. Do you agree that you could very likely have a year or many where you have a negative return?
 
I have a two year time horizon and unrealized is just that...unrealized...

The daily injections of capital cause my realized to be above my unrealized....look at the spreadsheet and watch the balancing...I can post in a month if you wish...It gets better and better as time moves forward if you get the trade size and balancing correct...(there is also a very slight martingale in motion)


It's not gambling...It's a mathematical exercise....

There is plenty of free money....

I wonder what ET will say when I learn how to counter-balance with 13 other pairs? I know a trader that does this and has done it for quite a while....

Michael B.



Quote from bignatty:

Well, what do you suppose is your max DD? Just curious. Do you agree that you could very likely have a year or many where you have a negative return?
More...
 
Thank you for considering my feeble, two examples when considering the question at hand...

There are other examples of trading that renders gambling obsolete...

Michael B.
 
bignatty,

Averaging down can be a dirty word....but remember we have interest earned and you are correct in your overview of system #2.

Keep in mind, there can also be a slight income realized when I can grab a trade above the rate of interest earned, but this is not necessary for the system to be profitable and for advanced traders only. Also there is a slight martingale in motion as new trades are put on...Also this system will only take a loss when there is an offsetting profitable trade...If you stay on top of this, drawdown is controlled.

System#1 is more profitable than #2. It profits from trades and not from carry. It is a volatility grabber! It is a separate system and does not serve as a cash safety net (some of you clever ones could merge these two systems, with some research...but hey I will not spoonfeed you)

The cash Safety net is the sub-account. The subaccount will grow proportionatly to the systems as time moves forward and when I move money into it. I am considering to increase the percent of capital in the sub account however...

Your rather fast bignatty and its a pleasure to post with you.

Michael B.


Quote from bignatty:

Electric,

What you do sounds interesting. Your #2 system is just a series of carry trades where you average down, if I understand correctly. Your backup account is there in case you need more funding to average down. While all three pairs might not goagainst you, it is still possible. There is no guarantee this will not happen. It is still very likly that you could lose, and losr big despite the income from the carrys. While the odds may be in your favor, the possibility of a crippling UNrealized drawdown wiping you out is still there. An UNrealized DD of 90%+ will most certainly take you out of the game.
More...
 
ES,

Nice thread.

I look at trading as making money so it is an effectiveness and efficiency effort.

For blackjack I measure effectivenss and efficiency by the crickets to call for dealer changes/hour. But that is just fun for me mentally and not anything else.

Your initial statement is an ET type breakthrough. It could be that every once in a while ET might, collectively, have a breakthrough.

Here, there have been several practitioners of your posed scenario. They all are sucessful traders it turns out.

What you bring up is a major successful strategy. Connecting ranges and trends almost happened here a few pages back. And certainly a lot of ground was given up regarding the efficacy of predicting. There is another thread on discipline that could easily profit from the reflection of this thread upon it.

Change makes money and the money velocity have a direct relationship to the periodicity of the fractal up to the point where the human mental capability is exceeded.

So by trading several fractals concurrently, you can still make more money than trading just one. Each fractal has a range and you enhance the money making by the size of your trading or you, alternatively, run more than one account. ET has examples of persons who do each.

So large size trades are done on lower period fractals and, within this fractal, other fractals are traded. A common quarterly result would be a profit on the long term trend (the range is suggested by the cash/futures initial offset) equal to the range: six to eight turns on the intermediate trem trend each of which is equal to the vertical spread of the IT channel widths; The short term trades within the IT channel are less in number than the IT swings per IT channel; day trading takes place within the ST channels (15 to 20 actions per day); and scalping for ticks is within that.

There are lots of people who scalp and use another intraday edge concurrently.

None of the above works for most people for one reason. They approach trading as gambling. Those who do not and trade as an occupation (meaning using skills and knowledge) focus on the set of activities most closely described as disciplined performance which comes down to two things: continually repeated operations (4 items) and a set of truths (3 items).

The combination of these 7 items have nothing to do with gambling.

The operations deal with monitoring, analysis, decision making and taking action. The truths devolve around choosing the correct alternative from three pairs of considerations: Catch up (lagging indicators) vs "anticipation"; Prediction vs real NOW; and guesssing vs eliminating alternatives (8) until only one remains.

For making money, there are no gambling words in any of the above.
 
Jack,

You are one of those traders that I respect greatly. And not because your kind to me on this thread. You have scolded me before too.

You honest candid knowledge of the market and how it connects has always impressed me. You have seemed to see the big picture and managed to track it and understand it. You morning/evening preparation must be awesome! Well enough of this...I don't want you to get too puffed up, we need you here.

Also, thanks for the info...I know you posted for a reason and I again will print out your post and re-read it...You always have some imbedded insight that is critical ....

Trading is not gambling....have all of you voted? What say you?

Michael B.
 
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