Is trading Gambling or not .."What say You" Vote here.

Is Trading Gambling or not

  • Gambling

    Votes: 460 35.0%
  • Not Gambling

    Votes: 854 65.0%

  • Total voters
    1,314
  • This poll will close: .
With System #1

When you zig....you zag......this is a good thing....Actually long straight down or straight up trends are not good...But they will quickly establish your drawdown amount and serve you for several years....

Unrealized P/L is just that! UNRealized!

When your backpacking down that trail and counting your steps and getting paid for each one, then the longest distance to the destination is the best...

when returning home its all downhill....


 
Hey, Electric, I am trying to send you a PM but says your box is full, can you empty it for me or PM me your e-mail? :)

By the way, I am with you on the gambling thing, my view is this:

Anything that can have an advantage is not a gamble, if said advantage is utilized.. Roulette can never be beaten by anyone no matter how hard they try (table limits, negative expectation, etc) and therefore is a gamble. Now, with trading, many "edges" exist that can be exploited over time, it's just most traders fail to do so or recognize them. In options volatility skew is one of these very real edges. Want proof read Natenberg's classic. This is fact. So, to restate, trading definitely does NOT have to be a form of gambling when operated on a mathematical advantage.

Are markets fair or efficient? Well, this is the age old question isn't it? Kinda like nature versus nurture, or evolution versus creationism. I think here, it's a bit easier. There are far more people in history that have made fortunes in trading than can be attributed to statistical anomoly. I think it is very difficult to succeed however, and even moreso to do it for the long run, but it can be done. It can be done because as efficient as the market tries to be, there are always new inefficiencies which can be exploited for at least a period of time. There are not inefficiencies in roulette, or blackjack.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

Emptied...

Thanks for all the PM's...Folks.

For a worn out topic, there was room for more debate, in my little world...

Michael B.

Hi, I found this post interesting. It's always fun to go through the older posts which seem to have some very useful info from some smart folks..

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=18643&perpage=1&pagenumber=215

Hope the link works (modded it to show 1 post per page, pointing directly to the relevant post). If not, I have quoted the post from 'Scientist' that I found pertinent to the thread. Hope he doesn't mind that I am quoting him here:

Scientist


Registered: Dec 2002
Posts: 2364


06-12-03 03:27 PM

Quote from Gordon Gekko:

about 2 weeks ago, my account at IB dwindled down to like $1975. to place a trade, you need $2000. so i wrote a check for $50 to get back above $2000 and considered my next trade a hail mary trade. well, i did the trade today and lost like $200.

once again, i am NOT asking for help and i am NOT looking for sympathy. i'm just posting my current situation and it sucks.

---------------------------------------------------------------
About 2 days ago, my account at IB dwindled down to like $1,750K. Just to be able to buy a nice dozen of Ferrari's or an apartment over Manhattan, you need $3,500K.

So I overdrew my credit card for $2,000K and bought 3,000 E-Mini's, thinking I'd make a point or two. "Sorry", said my broker, as they went down over 15 points. I didn't adhere to my stop-losses or learn about discipline. I never stopped trading although I was losing money, because I'm a STUPID trader.
I'm a compulsive trader.

Well, too bad, now I've got $6m on my credit cards, and it's hard to gas up those Ferrari's these days. All my girls are wondering why the Lobster ain't coming 3X a day, too...

You see - I'm broke, too - Am I? Money is relative! You ain't poor!
-----------------------------------------------------------

Now - Seriously - Gordon Gekko - Forget all the trash these dummies have been posting on this board! Take this advice from me if you really want to make your trading capital back:

2 years ago, after I repeatedly became #1 in the daily, weekly and monthly rankings in VSX (virtualstockexchange), amongst over 200,000 other players, I got 'adopted' into a community of absolute ace elite traders. These are not the 'pseudo elite traders' on these boards, that keep pooping around being dickheads and abusing others because they're draining their accounts or whatever and wasting their time posting here all day, trying to find victims like you (I.e. phoenix and the like) -These are the serious best, and they trade accounts worth dozens of millions. One thing they taught me when they accepted me was that I will never need to have to worry about money in my life again - Since they know everything there is to know about making money (yeah - anyway). But, seriously, the first thing they taught me was actually a gambling system, since this was their idea of introducing me to the reality of trading. This was their way of saying "money management is everything".

Next thing I knew was : They were right.

So, because I see you're in a desperate situation, got nothing to lose anymore and essentially everything to gain, please take this advice:

Learn a proper gambling system. I recommend on Baccarat, since the vic (house edge) is only ~1.23% or so - Lowest of all - Using advanced money management strategies, you can exploit 'streaks' in the shoe while minimizing losing 'streaks', this is exactly what successful traders do.

ANYBODY who wants to poop around now about the differences between trading and gambling - get lost. It's essentially the same. Don't kid yourselves. You can learn a lot about advanced money management from successful pro gamblers. Pro gamblers have similar behaviour to pro traders, and loser traders have similar behaviour to amateur gamblers (those guys who feed slots or play roulette or whatever HOPING they'll make some money) What you really LEARN, though, is the fact that money management is everything. Throw away prediction bla bla you don't even need it - You can roll a die to determine whether to go long or short, and given you cut your losses and run your gains, you'll make money. No kidding.

Using a Baccarat system I use, you can start playing that $2k with $5 units (U need 500 lifetime units for psychological reasons), then double the units everytime you double your bankroll. This way you should build your bankroll up to $50K-$100K within 6-12 months if you can be fucked living in Vegas and playing all day. This then should be enough for you to trade again (if not, you're a loser and better buy a business or sth).

U must use land casinoes, though, because the Online casino's software-systems now feature algorithms to detect gambling systems and once you actually make money, they just blacklist you and freeze your gambling account. Trust me.

Once you got that money, maybe you should try trading the ES - (S&P500 E-Mini's) -Just one contract at a time. That way you get out of the habit of jumping between stocks that you don't know, and you'll actually get familiar with something. You'll get used to the behaviour, and you'll get much better. The great thing is that once you get even halfway good at them (will take a while), you can trade pretty much anything (well, personally I found that ever since I managed to capture 1.5-3 pts per day on the ES, everything else, like stocks, seems pretty easy)
Focus on that one particular issue, and stare at it all day, analyze it, do paper trades, do real trades - You'll get better. Educate yourself. Read books. Get a mentor. U can also ask me if you're in dire straits, I'm not an expert, but I know a few tricks on trading the mini's (particularly exit strategies / cutting losses).

If you want to know which gambling systems are the best for which game - feel free to ask me - I just don't wanna advertise on here - And why tell anybody else anyway? Since everybody here, particularly the abusers, are apparently doing so well...

I hope this helped you, Gekko. Get back at me with your success story!

Good Luck (as if you'd need it)
~Scientist


Have fun trading this week, lady and gentlemen!
 
Quote from Quah:

When I say "the outcome is uncertain" - I mean that "making a profit is uncertain".

How that applies to direction, I'm not sure. If you are referring to a system that has no chance of NOT making a profit, then I guess it wouldn't be gambling. But, IMO, if there is any chance of not making a profit, then it is gambling.

according to Webster:

Main Entry: 1gam·ble
Pronunciation: 'gam-b&l
Function: verb
Inflected Form(s): gam·bled; gam·bling /-b(&-)li[ng]/
Etymology: probably back-formation from gambler, probably alteration of obsolete gamner, from obsolete gamen (to play)
intransitive senses
1 a : to play a game for money or property b : to bet on an uncertain outcome
2 : to stake something on a contingency : take a chance
transitive senses


The narrow definition would define gambling as betting on a game. The equity/debt/derivitive markets are not games. Therefore it is not.
The broad defenition is:

All type of activity for money is gambling:

start a business: you have uncertain outcome
work for a company: the company may go out of business and you don't get paid, etc.
 
chance, luck, gamble....blah blah blah..

unknown outcome, faith and choices....

money greed and adrenilin....


There are consistantly lucky traders then...they are blessed...give me a break! Does anybody believe this?

Why am I talking about this?

Trading is not gambling.
 
Quote from EliteInterest:

Now - Seriously - Gordon Gekko - Forget all the trash these dummies have been posting on this board! Take this advice from me if you really want to make your trading capital back:

2 years ago, after I repeatedly became #1 in the daily, weekly and monthly rankings in VSX (virtualstockexchange), amongst over 200,000 other players, I got 'adopted' into a community of absolute ace elite traders. These are not the 'pseudo elite traders' on these boards, that keep pooping around being dickheads and abusing others because they're draining their accounts or whatever and wasting their time posting here all day, trying to find victims like you (I.e. phoenix and the like) -These are the serious best, and they trade accounts worth dozens of millions. One thing they taught me when they accepted me was that I will never need to have to worry about money in my life again - Since they know everything there is to know about making money (yeah - anyway). But, seriously, the first thing they taught me was actually a gambling system, since this was their idea of introducing me to the reality of trading. This was their way of saying "money management is everything".

Next thing I knew was : They were right.

So, because I see you're in a desperate situation, got nothing to lose anymore and essentially everything to gain, please take this advice:

Learn a proper gambling system. I recommend on Baccarat, since the vic (house edge) is only ~1.23% or so - Lowest of all - Using advanced money management strategies, you can exploit 'streaks' in the shoe while minimizing losing 'streaks', this is exactly what successful traders do.

ANYBODY who wants to poop around now about the differences between trading and gambling - get lost. It's essentially the same. Don't kid yourselves. You can learn a lot about advanced money management from successful pro gamblers. Pro gamblers have similar behaviour to pro traders, and loser traders have similar behaviour to amateur gamblers (those guys who feed slots or play roulette or whatever HOPING they'll make some money) What you really LEARN, though, is the fact that money management is everything. Throw away prediction bla bla you don't even need it - You can roll a die to determine whether to go long or short, and given you cut your losses and run your gains, you'll make money. No kidding.

Using a Baccarat system I use, you can start playing that $2k with $5 units (U need 500 lifetime units for psychological reasons), then double the units everytime you double your bankroll. This way you should build your bankroll up to $50K-$100K within 6-12 months if you can be fucked living in Vegas and playing all day. This then should be enough for you to trade again (if not, you're a loser and better buy a business or sth).

U must use land casinoes, though, because the Online casino's software-systems now feature algorithms to detect gambling systems and once you actually make money, they just blacklist you and freeze your gambling account. Trust me.

Once you got that money, maybe you should try trading the ES - (S&P500 E-Mini's) -Just one contract at a time. That way you get out of the habit of jumping between stocks that you don't know, and you'll actually get familiar with something. You'll get used to the behaviour, and you'll get much better. The great thing is that once you get even halfway good at them (will take a while), you can trade pretty much anything (well, personally I found that ever since I managed to capture 1.5-3 pts per day on the ES, everything else, like stocks, seems pretty easy)
Focus on that one particular issue, and stare at it all day, analyze it, do paper trades, do real trades - You'll get better. Educate yourself. Read books. Get a mentor. U can also ask me if you're in dire straits, I'm not an expert, but I know a few tricks on trading the mini's (particularly exit strategies / cutting losses).

If you want to know which gambling systems are the best for which game - feel free to ask me - I just don't wanna advertise on here - And why tell anybody else anyway? Since everybody here, particularly the abusers, are apparently doing so well...

I hope this helped you, Gekko. Get back at me with your success story!

Good Luck (as if you'd need it)
~Scientist



Thanks for digging this up. This is by far the most worthwhile post made all day. imo life itself is a gamble and an endless series of tradeoffs where the actions you don't take most often will cost you more in lost opportunites than the actions taken. Good luck to you too.....and yes, I do need the luck :)
 
As we were discussing "gambling or not" the USD/CHF hit a target at 1.1987...I was not even paying attention, but I had time to replace the trade. If I were gambling, would my hands be sweating and would I be watching every pip? Yes! I am more concerned about being effective and getting the replacement trades entered...

I replaced the trade and re-entered the limit order...as I never know if its going dip back down and get that entry again...But if it doesn't it will catch the next target...or if it dips too far the other side will catch the target...

Volatility Grabbing is a different way to look at the market...

I do not even know which side will trade next...I don't care...its like a teeter-totter...one side goes up, the other goes down...targets in between..

Straight up or down moves over several days establish a nice wide, comfortable max unrealized P/L...(it can only grow larger, it never shrinks, but you might say this is a bad thing, but I don't, because what moves like that returns...)

Michael B.
 
System #2 just sits there collecting interest Its current Unrealized has improved to -31.24....

I might do some adjusting in the morning if I can get some money off the trades at a higher rate than the interest pays...

If I take some trades, I must figure out how to get more money back in though. That is alway a problem...I prefer just to carry a positive unrealized and collect the interest......(you must be careful with this because you have more margin than usual when positive...so be carefull how heavy you get in).

see the spreadsheet...

Michael B.
 
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