Is Tom Hougaard the real deal?

Maybe it's best for him to go back to private trading. He should be taking those 4-5,000 British pound profits instead of letting them go back to breakeven stops. I saw 3 of those happen live just this week.

Handle123 said it best here. To paraphrase: Your entry is not that important. However, your money management is.
 
Getting hate from some people on losing days comes with the territory and you would think that after streaming live for over five years, a public day trader like him would be used to it by now.

However, this behavior seems to be part of his dramatic persona imo. He regularly goes through a cycle where he gets frustrated with hate messages or silly questions from his followers, takes a break / reflects, receives supportive messages and returns.

Underneath it all, I think he craves attention and notoriety. I also think he needs the day trading channel to keep himself accountable and disciplined, something he admitted in an interview a few years ago.

He’ll be back once this current cycle ends...
 
I think he traded different with other patterns all day some years ago where he had his huge success making over 2000% return in a year. I told Tom that his actual candle pattern, like labelling them SRS or School Run System, produces no edge going forward as all that kind of pattern or candle stuff. There is no indicator no magic formula where you can make consistent profits out of it. There are several very mediocre strats, but you do not wanna trade them as you need decades to get rich from, if they last that long as premise. Usually there are some good short term highly profitable strats, but you never know when they will perform that good, and then it is only for a few months. That tells me my 15 years fully systematic backtesting forward testing, live trading here.
 
Toms 2023 Risk Reward for the year was about ca. 3:1 which is not bad but not good either. He had over 160k drawdown in first half where he then made 400k profits at the end of year. This year 2024 he already had 100k drawdown and now after half year passed he is in some profits, but he needed more than 5 months in total to recover all the drawdown. So you see his pattern strats do not work any good. Mediocre best, and that only because he is trailing his stops and scales in too. But you also see often that his stops are wider than his average take profits and in addition he holds loosers much longer in time than winners. Not so good habits on that. His discretionary elements is his edge not his manually backtested pattern stuff over the last 12 months on bad data from a Cfd broker.
 
TrAndy2022 said:
I think he traded different with other patterns all day some years ago where he had his huge success making over 2000% return in a year. I told Tom that his actual candle pattern, like labelling them SRS or School Run System, produces no edge going forward as all that kind of pattern or candle stuff. There is no indicator no magic formula where you can make consistent profits out of it. There are several very mediocre strats, but you do not wanna trade them as you need decades to get rich from, if they last that long as premise. Usually there are some good short term highly profitable strats, but you never know when they will perform that good, and then it is only for a few months. That tells me my 15 years fully systematic backtesting forward testing, live trading here.
More...

I'm sorry but that's nonsense. Of course, there are also mechanical trading strategies that can be successful in the long term. As is often the case, it probably depends on the user.

So since in your opinion it is not possible, what is your approach and do you have a track record to prove this or are you just happy to babble something in a forum?

See: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4416622
 
Sorry but you seem not that much experienced. Your ORB strat is mediocre for me, because the Sharpe is only about 1.2. I would not call this a strat where you can make consistent profits. I would call a strat higher Sharpe > 3 as such. Because on a Sharpe 1 strat you need many years to compound your profits to get really rich from.
2024-07-26_163657.jpg

Not a good strat only mediocre, with Sharpe around 1.2. That is what I meant on Toms his strats. He was lucky in those few years where he could make 2000% returns per anno, which is not possible with the strat above (if you trade fully systematic).
 
And yes I would say backtesting is useless. The more you backtest the less consistent results you can produce going forward. I created from Sharpe 2 to 12 many systematic strats over 15 years and I know from what I am speaking. The last cointegration strat on FX markets I was just lucky over a 10 months period. Over 10 years backtested it does not work I figured out later. But that does not mean you can by luck not make a meaningful profit. From time to time there will be some. It is not like that 100% the market is different in future versus to past. About 90% or 95% I guess. That leaves some room for lucky profits on systematic high Sharpe strats.
 
TrAndy2022 said:
Toms 2023 Risk Reward for the year was about ca. 3:1 which is not bad but not good either. He had over 160k drawdown in first half where he then made 400k profits at the end of year. This year 2024 he already had 100k drawdown and now after half year passed he is in some profits, but he needed more than 5 months in total to recover all the drawdown. So you see his pattern strats do not work any good. Mediocre best, and that only because he is trailing his stops and scales in too. But you also see often that his stops are wider than his average take profits and in addition he holds loosers much longer in time than winners. Not so good habits on that. His discretionary elements is his edge not his manually backtested pattern stuff over the last 12 months on bad data from a Cfd broker.
More...

His manually-tested pattern stuff merely gives me a reason to enter trades. They are neither statistically sound nor reliable.

His edge comes from money management. He moves his SL to break even quickly, lets his winners ride (or stop out at break even) and he adds to winners. He never averages losers. Trading with a broker with tight bid offer spreads also helps.

That’s his edge imo.
 
Money management on it's own is not an edge and moving your SL to breakeven quickly is generally not a good idea as you'll often get stopped out of a good entry and may have to chase the market leading to a worse price with more risk. If you know what you're doing (which you should), you need to hold your positions with confidence all the way to your target.

From what little I've seen of this guy and from the results he's posted (inconsistent), it's possible he's just gotten lucky (and unlucky afterwards) or that his strategy works only for a very narrow set of market conditions. Overall, his stuff seems like basic retail stuff.

The stuff on money management seems solid enough, though, i.e., never average a loser, cut losses and add to winners. To trade profitably directionally, you need to know a bit more of course.

If his followers are disappointed or mad because he didn't deliver, that's on them. The idea of just following a guy's calls hoping to get rich seems ridiculous to me.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top