Quote from chaykapwr:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/01/corp margins gs 2.jpg
3. The percentage of firms beating consensus EPS expectations by more than one standard deviation (our definition of a positive surprise) is well below the historical average. The number of firms missing by more than one standard deviation is above the historical average. The ten year historical average of beat and misses equals 41% and 13%, respectively. So far this quarter just 24% of firms beat expectations and 17% have missed.
4. On an aggregate basis, reported results represent a 3% upside EPS surprise for the quarter ($0.45 per share). However, estimates for firms yet to report fell by 2% resulting in 0.9% change to S&P 500 4Q EPS. The median surprise over the past ten years has been 1.6%.
5. The Information Technology sector contributed nearly all of the S&P 500 upside EPS surprise ($0.43 of $0.45 total). Industrials and Financials contributed about 40% and 30%, respectively, or $0.18 and $0.14. Energy surprises have been negative, lowering the index aggregate by $0.26.
6. Individual companies matter. AAPL represents 18% and 26% of the Information Technology sectorâs market cap and expected 4Q 2011 earnings, respectively. The Information Technology sector should grow earnings by 21% year/year, but by just 5% excluding AAPL. Apple is likely to be the top contributor to S&P 500 EPS for this quarter. 4Q 2011 will represent the first time since 2003 that Exxon (XOM) is not the top S&P 500 EPS contributor.
7. Since the start of earnings season, bottom-up consensus full-year 2012 estimates have declined by 0.5% to $106. Our top-down forecast remains $100. Revisions are largest in Materials (-3.5%), Energy (-2.5%), and Financials (-2.3%). Information Technology revisions have increased by 3% and Industrials revisions have been flat.
Credit: Goldman Sachs
Quote from Nine_Ender:
Zerohedge seems to be a really bad site for analysis; the negative bias they have is atrocious. The numbers you have presented may not be wrong per say but they are slanted to encourage unsound conclusions. Its funny math really.
Trade what you feel. Myself, I was pretty clear that I thought AAPL and IBM earnings numbers were game changers short term.