Is this fishy... or is it just me?

bonds · Feb 14, 2012

Ive noticed this tendency lately on notable down days there seems to be a lot of headlines coming out of Europe that reverses course of action in the US markets and injects this euphoric buying right into our close.

This news always seems to be refuted or denied at some point well into the after hours where it doesnt have an effect into the market. The latest is today right near the close apparently there is a headline out of Greece that the PM will apparently is now ok with signing the austerity package. What seems somewhat suspicious to me is that at the time the news is released it was 11:00 PM in Greece. All these headlines out of Europe that give our markets a boost tend to come late in the evening in Europe, when I would think they should be coming during the day during European market hours.

Does that seem fishy to anyone else or is it just me?

onelots · Feb 14, 2012

all major headlines are released at non-coincidental times. it's intended to be that way. bearish headlines are released after upmoves and bullish after downmoves. don't fight it. everything's rigged

antelope · Feb 14, 2012

Whatever the headline, this is the real situation in Europe (of which all major market players are much more aware than us):

Greece: deeply bankrupt
Portugal: deeply bankrupt
Spain: bankrupt
Italy: almost bankrupt
France: broke and running down the slope fast
UK: broke and running down the slope fast
Germany: self-solvent, but deteriorating fast
Finland, Netherlands, Sweden: deteriorating

How markets fabricate uptrends these days? On the news?

They know that, if the markets even start a minor downturn, it's the end.

bonds · Feb 14, 2012

Quote from onelots:

all major headlines are released at non-coincidental times. it's intended to be that way. bearish headlines are released after upmoves and bullish after downmoves. don't fight it. everything's rigged

im not fighting it, just saying why would the Greek pm release this statement at 11:00 pm Greek time... i would expect European news to be released during their day, not ours.

Maverick74 · Feb 14, 2012

The only thing fishy to me is how AAPL can just move up every day in a straight line. It's really hard to get follow through in the ES when AAPL keeps making new highs. I have never seen such a smooth move before in my life. If you take AAPL out of the S&P 500 we would probably be back at 1300.

Nine_Ender · Feb 14, 2012

Quote from Maverick74:

The only thing fishy to me is how AAPL can just move up every day in a straight line. It's really hard to get follow through in the ES when AAPL keeps making new highs. I have never seen such a smooth move before in my life. If you take AAPL out of the S&P 500 we would probably be back at 1300.

It was a severely underpriced stock. So it had to correct up. This is not unusual, I've seen similar moves in companies like IBM in the past. Express the AAPL move as a pct and its nothing extraordinary really after a boffo earnings report.

This is something people trading indexes have to understand. The best blue chip companies have NEVER been healthier as corporations. If the indexes are to go lower, there has to be an even bigger negative catalyst. And when I see even Citibank posting an earnings beat, I don't know where any downside leadership can come from.

abattia · Feb 14, 2012

Quote from bonds:
... Does that seem fishy to anyone else or is it just me?...

Us Europeans, we're a fishy bunch...

Young kids in Spain don't go to bed until 10 - 11pm ... so why are you so surprised if the Greek PM is making newsworthy press releases at 11 pm...

"I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore..."

bc1 · Feb 14, 2012

Quote from abattia:

Us Europeans, we're a fishy bunch...

Young kids in Spain don't go to bed until 10 - 11pm ... so why are you so surprised if the Greek PM is making newsworthy press releases at 11 pm...

"I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore..."

Even the cycler is in bed before this. Maybe I missed and its Pakistan, not Europe. Probably a paky.

bc1 · Feb 14, 2012

Quote from abattia:

Us Europeans, we're a fishy bunch...

Young kids in Spain don't go to bed until 10 - 11pm ... so why are you so surprised if the Greek PM is making newsworthy press releases at 11 pm...

"I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore..."

Go Jayhawks!!!

chaykapwr · Feb 14, 2012

Quote from Nine_Ender:

It was a severely underpriced stock. So it had to correct up. This is not unusual, I've seen similar moves in companies like IBM in the past. Express the AAPL move as a pct and its nothing extraordinary really after a boffo earnings report.

This is something people trading indexes have to understand. The best blue chip companies have NEVER been healthier as corporations. If the indexes are to go lower, there has to be an even bigger negative catalyst. And when I see even Citibank posting an earnings beat, I don't know where any downside leadership can come from.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/01/corp margins gs 2.jpg

3. The percentage of firms beating consensus EPS expectations by more than one standard deviation (our definition of a positive surprise) is well below the historical average. The number of firms missing by more than one standard deviation is above the historical average. The ten year historical average of beat and misses equals 41% and 13%, respectively. So far this quarter just 24% of firms beat expectations and 17% have missed.

4. On an aggregate basis, reported results represent a 3% upside EPS surprise for the quarter ($0.45 per share). However, estimates for firms yet to report fell by 2% resulting in 0.9% change to S&P 500 4Q EPS. The median surprise over the past ten years has been 1.6%.

5. The Information Technology sector contributed nearly all of the S&P 500 upside EPS surprise ($0.43 of $0.45 total). Industrials and Financials contributed about 40% and 30%, respectively, or $0.18 and $0.14. Energy surprises have been negative, lowering the index aggregate by $0.26.

6. Individual companies matter. AAPL represents 18% and 26% of the Information Technology sectorâs market cap and expected 4Q 2011 earnings, respectively. The Information Technology sector should grow earnings by 21% year/year, but by just 5% excluding AAPL. Apple is likely to be the top contributor to S&P 500 EPS for this quarter. 4Q 2011 will represent the first time since 2003 that Exxon (XOM) is not the top S&P 500 EPS contributor.

7. Since the start of earnings season, bottom-up consensus full-year 2012 estimates have declined by 0.5% to $106. Our top-down forecast remains $100. Revisions are largest in Materials (-3.5%), Energy (-2.5%), and Financials (-2.3%). Information Technology revisions have increased by 3% and Industrials revisions have been flat.

Credit: Goldman Sachs