Is this a smart trade? ES

X

xyannix

Hello,

I am having problems with my trading.

It seems that I always pick tops to buy and short at the bottom. :-)

Attached is a chart of the ES from today and yesterday.

I shorted the ES today at 15:08 at 1421.50 and covered at 1418.50.

It happened to be profitable but I want to know if it was a smart trade or stupid luck.

The reason I shorted was because it seemed to be going nowhere but up and down half a point. I figured the up move had finished and the next move was down.

Was this a sensible trade and why?

Thanks in advance for your advice!
 

Attachments

Quote from bsparkyman:

Looks like you did the opposite of what you normally do and it worked out. Nice job Castanza. Worked for him.
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LOL,

But i really want to know if it wass sensible.
 
Quote from xyannix:

Hello,

I am having problems with my trading.

It seems that I always pick tops to buy and short at the bottom. :-)

Attached is a chart of the ES from today and yesterday.

I shorted the ES today at 15:08 at 1421.50 and covered at 1418.50.

It happened to be profitable but I want to know if it was a smart trade or stupid luck.

The reason I shorted was because it seemed to be going nowhere but up and down half a point. I figured the up move had finished and the next move was down.

Was this a sensible trade and why?

Thanks in advance for your advice!
More...

There were about 6 of those today at your level of trading.

Here is the rule set to use to do 3 of 6 trades like you did.

1. See low volume.

2. turn off the price chart.

3. when volume picks up on next bar, then trade long if volume is green; short if red.

4. Exit as soon as you know volume is tapering back from level of last bar's volume.. (this takes 30 seconds to a minute to figure out).

Why can't you use it for the morning? Answer: because volume wasn't low all morning.

What can you do in the morning? answer: Make up some rules that work with the price turned off.

The rules above are called BO trading rules. They are in books except for the turn off price part of chart.

So now you are making 10 points a day just in the afternoon doing BO's. Every four days add a contract. And cut the number of days between adding contracts in half.

At 5 contracts, you are adding contracts every 40 points which is less than a day. At that time of profit of 40 points exit and reenter with one more contract.

When you get to 50 contracts always take out the left overs on fridays so you only have 54 contracts of margin every Monday.

If you invent an AM way to trade post it here first and I will fix it for you so it works like the rules above for BO trading do.

The trade you did wasn't smart.

Posting what you did was smart.

I just made a set of rules for you to make money doing what you did.

That makes what you do smart because you are using a set of rules which is a Simple Profitable Method*

* name is copyrighted.

After you have gotten to 50 contract level turn the price chart back on.
 
Thank you Jack for the detailed response. I really appreciate the feedback!!!

A couple of questions.

What interval chart should I be using? 1, 3, 5 minutes? (I currently use 5 or 3 min. )

How many points below should my stop be?

When you enter the trade do you use market or limit orders? (Meaning, are you waiting for the price to come back a little or you dont take the chance of missing the move. )

I assume there is no target exit because you only exit when a decrease in volume tells you too.

Thanks.
 
Please excuse the intrusion, but I like to stalk Jack with a pooper scooper minority report. Sounds like a strategy, huh? Define "low". Define "picks up". Explain how you are confident volume was "green" based on the price bar alone. Define "tapering back". Of such definitions are testable (equals tradeable) systems made.
 
Quote from xyannix:

Thank you Jack for the detailed response. I really appreciate the feedback!!!

A couple of questions.

What interval chart should I be using? 1, 3, 5 minutes? (I currently use 5 or 3 min. )

YourP,V chart looks like a five minute chart;use it.

How many points below should my stop be?

Stops are not arbitrary things. They are well thought out when a person is beginning to trade. A few years ago I wrote up and cut and pasted three components of a stop report. It was a table of 12 methods (strategies) followed by a topic by topic write up of each of the 12. Finally I did web research to ID the best site that archived the use of each of the 12 strategies. I printed many copies of all of this in color and did a 2 hour video taped presentation on the methods It is on a web site now. I am not allowed to reference it as a condition of my participation here. The point is that you can repeat my experience or someone will tell you where to go , probably.

Use any stop system that appeals to you. This is an answer. How often will you use your stops? About never. The key to successful trading on any level is monitoring the trade with data sets. Here you have a one element data set an that was the best I could do to make it easiest for you.

The skill you will be developing is a small one but one that is used by the greatest expert traders. So this is a lifelong thing to begin with.

You must learn to estimate how the volume is doing over the five minutes of the bar. Divide five minutes into pieces. Separate each piecs by an amount of time that lets you calculate the final volume of the bar and record the value. You only have one decision to make from the list of values. From the time you enter the values must go up (within reason). When they stop increasing you exit.

Now you see why your stop will never be hit; price will always be moving away from the stop and the entry value.

Personally, I trade on a differnt level that ET people so were I using stops, the price would always be moving away from them. In expert trading a person uses sufficiency for figuring things out. In the well reasoned process stops could come up as a condideration. When they do, they are deemed superfulous in a logic based sense.

You have shut down the price part of the chart anyways, since it is not part of the data set. So by doing this important thing you cannot see how the price is moving with repect to your entry not your stop and a target if you were doing setting targets. We have simply taken relative price off the table to create no vocabulary related to freakout, fear, anxiety, and anger.

You are focussed instead on just making money, a one way street. You go in, make money and go out.

When you enter the trade do you use market or limit orders?

Making money is based on timing. You do a routine in NOW only and the decision that pops out is where belief and behavior intersect. NOW is when you act using a tool to complete the decision that was made. Only market orders do that. Most other orders are related to gambling and probabilities. These thing relate to guessing what the future holds. We already know what happens as the future moves into the present. We make money.

(Meaning, are you waiting for the price to come back a little or you dont take the chance of missing the move. )

My daughter never returned the putter I leant to her.you are using the putting analogy for price which I have taken off the table for now. I admit that it is difficult to post a set of rules and have a person see what they mean and why I made the rule. You have just become a millionaire and we are going through staightening out a few wrinkles. By not seeing the price for a while you will never know if you putted too far and when past the hole or putted too short and didn't quite make the hole. Here we are just dealing with direction for the time being. Just put in the right direction and go pick up the ball. Your score on the each hole is a positive and increasing number. When the game is over you have had no penalties (stop outs) nor any shots that were in the wrong direction.

This is the first rule of golf. Hit towards the goal (hole).

I assume there is no target exit because you only exit when a decrease in volume tells you too.

Magnificent!!!! Excellent!!!! Terrific!!!!. Notice we are playing the game to have support, comfort and confidence. This is building on success. Just three multi point afternoon puts on the green. Carrying the ball to the green dropping it on entry and doing a putt in the direction of the hole.

No driving off the tee. no fairway shots. Just dropping the ball on the green and taking one shot at the hole and picking up the ball. Imagine how much better your score is on day one than the course record.

Thanks.
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This is a simple profiable method*

* copyrighted TM.
 
I like to stalk Jack too and let any newbie know about his use and mususe of patterns of Ericksonian hypnosis and NLP in his posts. Google Milton Ericksonian. Very useful but I believe in full disclosure.

Buy the book Patterns of Ericksonian hypnosis and play his game with him. That is what he is doing with you. I am putting very well today too.
 
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