is there a way to calculate the probability of a market top?
- Thread starter pocoyo2014
- Start date
Short answer: no.
You can do historical studies and make an educated guess, but you can't calculate accurate probabilities.
Calculating probabilities with a deck of cards is obviously different, since you know the number of cards in the deck and the probability for each card or combination of cards can be calculated accurately.
You can do historical studies and make an educated guess, but you can't calculate accurate probabilities.
Calculating probabilities with a deck of cards is obviously different, since you know the number of cards in the deck and the probability for each card or combination of cards can be calculated accurately.
I think if you can define a top, it should be quite easy.
For instance let's say you define a top as...
The past 10 days high are lower than todays high and the following 10 days high are lower than todays high.
Count the number of time that has happened over some period and your probability is that number over the period.
Let's say that happened 13 times in 500 days than the probability is 2.6%.
For instance let's say you define a top as...
The past 10 days high are lower than todays high and the following 10 days high are lower than todays high.
Count the number of time that has happened over some period and your probability is that number over the period.
Let's say that happened 13 times in 500 days than the probability is 2.6%.
If there was a way to calculate the probability of a market top (and/or a bottom), why on earth would anybody tell you?
Trading is a competition. The sooner you learn that, the better off you'll be.
That sums it up very well!
Does Santa Clause live in the North Pole?
Yea, that is the big problem with the OP's post... What does he mean by "top?" Top for the week, top for a month, top for a year, or top for a decade? Top can mean a near infinite number of different things.
Heck, when some people say "top" they are not even talking about a top. They are actually talking about price going lower than this point or something else.
Top for a week = easy to predict, top for a month = hard, top for a year = very very hard.
??
If you could predict a top with a high degree of accuracy, then predicting a monthly or a yearly top would be no more difficult than predicting an intraday top, all you need to do is change the time frame accordingly.
Yes you can, and I will share the secret juice with you. 
Then Manufacturing ISM and/or Non-Manufacturing ISM prints a data point below 50 and continue to tick down for two more data points, each one being lower than the previous, then the top is in! Example a three data point sequence: 49 -> 47 -> 45
Then Manufacturing ISM and/or Non-Manufacturing ISM prints a data point below 50 and continue to tick down for two more data points, each one being lower than the previous, then the top is in! Example a three data point sequence: 49 -> 47 -> 45
we are at a top now, but you wont KNOW that ,you can call it ,put percentage odds on it but it;s not a real top until after the fact when it has played out, if it was a knowable fact , the market wouldnt be around, too easy for the individual to print money like the fed does
http://imgur.com/xUFc3wv
http://imgur.com/xUFc3wv