for example, any way to tell something like this:
"there is a 88% posibility that this is a top."
"there is a 88% posibility that this is a top."
is there a way to calculate the probability of a market top?
- Thread starter pocoyo2014
- Start date
Nope, because you cannot define the market with a mathematical formula, that would be too easy.
However, looking for triple tops with a strong breakdown confirmation is a good place to start.
There is a guy that calculates probabilities with good success rate for short term and long term but the methods are quite elaborate. The short term method is based on price patterns that are tested on a group of securities and the long term on some measure of randomness. Note that probability in significance tests involves a probability and it is not a straight forward concept.
Yes, it is possible... And, no... It's not easy. There is no simple formula. You have to take into account momentum vs overbought/oversold and analyze the statistics of similar combinations through history. Other people have different ways of doing it including using sentiment extremes, including volume to check for capitulation odds, and etc... Some people include margin levels in their calculations. Everyone is going to keep their methods to themselves... I personally believe the highest possible accuracy for predicting tops/bottoms is over 99% and less than 99.99%. No, I am not close to that accuracy level.
yes. when your friends and families talk about stocks.
Whenever I hear someone say "I personally believe" I can't help but think of this lady
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww
99% accuracy possible for predicting tops/bottoms lol, wait, MV, are you Miss SC?
Yes. I know somebody who has been doing this for years and shares it freely on the internet. But everybody except a few dozen people ignore him. Lol. Probably because its probably just a correlation. (for example he said in june 2012 that the bull market in bonds of 30 years would end that month, when it was that time , and what do you know it topped - he was only off by one month)
But he also made mistakes, like with QE2.
But he also made mistakes, like with QE2.
LoL... That is a pretty good technique for solving if something is a bubble or not! However, it is kinda lacking in the precise timing area.
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Good points;
sell in May + go away
Mr Poco2014, thanks for the question;
well i like good uptrends/'bull market, + good downtrends/bear market.
Even though its an election year, thats bullish[Stock Traders Almanac,2001]
Frankly this ''its a bull market you know'',LOL Old Turkey said;
but this late in the year, with SPY sell volume better than buy volume [10 year candlechart/+..................................................................................Bearish
Bottom line this SPY bull market looks like its about to get smashed by polar bears = panda bear.OH ,,did i mention a monthly low on SPY has ALL ready
been taken out?????NOT a prediction, simply better bear probibilities.CPA said they increased capital gains tax , a bit.
BIG Banks losing money again, no wonder ;lousy customer service .
Even if the bull market gets very , very more extended;
i see better uptrends than SPY
