Is the worst of the recession Over?
- Thread starter monty21
- Start date
I like this guy's articles:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2008/1208.html
December 08
The Initial Phase â Financial Crisis
Unfortunately, the depth and length of the crisis are currently being discounted. At the moment, the crisis is in its initial phases. What is taking place only has affected mostly the financial sector; there has been only a minimal effect on the real economy. However, at the latest by next year, the second phase of the crisis will begin, with spillover effects into the economy. In 2009, the weakness of the global economy will become central.
Check.
The Second Phase â Economic Crisis
The lack of money becomes evident in the second phase of the crisis â the financial crisis is replaced by an economic crisis, triggering massive bankruptcies that would spread globally in a chain reaction. After the series of initial difficulties encountered by home borrowers and the construction companies, there have been no bankruptcies so far in manufacturing, shipping, media, food processing, not to mention luxury goods like luxury cars, yachts and watches, or exotic businesses like space tourism. But their time will come. During the second phase of the crisis, another large sum of capital will âevaporateâ from the market, because a company which is going bankrupt will leave nothing for shareholders and very little for its bondholders. In the second stage of the crisis, unemployment will begin to grow along with the wave of bankruptcies.
Check.
The Third Phase â Hyperinflation
Throughout the series of crises, politicians will attempt to interfere in the game, but the third stage of the crisis will nevertheless begin. Since banks were âsavedâ with large bailouts, politicians will also begin to lavish corporations with various aid packages. The recent charade of automakers begging for money is only the beginning. Thus, measures will be undertaken that, in the opinion of politicians, will help the economy and save jobs, something that will likely become known as Obamaâs âNew New Dealâ. This will include a multitude of spending programs and, above all, the loaning of credit with astronomical increases in the money supply, together with the classifying of the corresponding numbers into the trillions. Just like now nobody talks any more in terms of millions, so in the not so distant future no one will be talking any more in terms of billions. Trillions will be the order of the day. Perhaps bank lending standards will be relaxed. Perhaps the government will lavish the banks with a lot more money than it does today, just to keep them lending. Perhaps the central bank will directly monetize private debt. Perhaps the government will guarantee many more corporate loans, just like it recently guaranteed the securities/loans of the GSEs. Perhaps GSEs will proliferate throughout the economy, transforming the U.S economy into the âGSE Economyâ, transforming a former great capitalist economy into a modern-day nationalsozialistische economy. Perhaps the government will implement all of the above.
It will seem for awhile that peace has arrived, that the crisis has been overcome, as if the bankrupt companies have been âsavedâ, although this will only be the calm before the storm.
Check?
Thanks for any thoughts.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2008/1208.html
December 08
The Initial Phase â Financial Crisis
Unfortunately, the depth and length of the crisis are currently being discounted. At the moment, the crisis is in its initial phases. What is taking place only has affected mostly the financial sector; there has been only a minimal effect on the real economy. However, at the latest by next year, the second phase of the crisis will begin, with spillover effects into the economy. In 2009, the weakness of the global economy will become central.
Check.
The Second Phase â Economic Crisis
The lack of money becomes evident in the second phase of the crisis â the financial crisis is replaced by an economic crisis, triggering massive bankruptcies that would spread globally in a chain reaction. After the series of initial difficulties encountered by home borrowers and the construction companies, there have been no bankruptcies so far in manufacturing, shipping, media, food processing, not to mention luxury goods like luxury cars, yachts and watches, or exotic businesses like space tourism. But their time will come. During the second phase of the crisis, another large sum of capital will âevaporateâ from the market, because a company which is going bankrupt will leave nothing for shareholders and very little for its bondholders. In the second stage of the crisis, unemployment will begin to grow along with the wave of bankruptcies.
Check.
The Third Phase â Hyperinflation
Throughout the series of crises, politicians will attempt to interfere in the game, but the third stage of the crisis will nevertheless begin. Since banks were âsavedâ with large bailouts, politicians will also begin to lavish corporations with various aid packages. The recent charade of automakers begging for money is only the beginning. Thus, measures will be undertaken that, in the opinion of politicians, will help the economy and save jobs, something that will likely become known as Obamaâs âNew New Dealâ. This will include a multitude of spending programs and, above all, the loaning of credit with astronomical increases in the money supply, together with the classifying of the corresponding numbers into the trillions. Just like now nobody talks any more in terms of millions, so in the not so distant future no one will be talking any more in terms of billions. Trillions will be the order of the day. Perhaps bank lending standards will be relaxed. Perhaps the government will lavish the banks with a lot more money than it does today, just to keep them lending. Perhaps the central bank will directly monetize private debt. Perhaps the government will guarantee many more corporate loans, just like it recently guaranteed the securities/loans of the GSEs. Perhaps GSEs will proliferate throughout the economy, transforming the U.S economy into the âGSE Economyâ, transforming a former great capitalist economy into a modern-day nationalsozialistische economy. Perhaps the government will implement all of the above.
It will seem for awhile that peace has arrived, that the crisis has been overcome, as if the bankrupt companies have been âsavedâ, although this will only be the calm before the storm.
Check?
Thanks for any thoughts.
AP reports: âNew signs emerge that the recession may be easing.â The Stock Research Portal responds: Really? âThis conclusion makes absolutely no sense to me. While some want to see âlight at the end of tunnelâ ⦠the U.S. Commerce Department reported construction of new homes and apartments fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 510,000 units in March, second lowest in the 50 years of record keeping.â
Market Data and Economic Research
Market Data and Economic Research
Your Market Data/Economic link did not work... Did you mean http://www.stockresearchportal.com
Are you also spamming this website? I quickly browsed it and it seems like you have to join before seeing anything.
You can get most of their information at wsj.com (Markets section) for free.
Summary of all Mkts:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/marketsdata.html
Stocks:
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-stock-market-movers.html
Bonds:
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-fixed-income-bonds.html
Currencies:
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-currency-currencies-trading.html
Commodities:
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-oil-gold-commodities.html
World Markets:
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-asia-asian-europe-european-markets.html
We are at or very near (within a week) of this bear market rally being done. When it is the down side will be swifter than many imagine. I expect to see the SP well under 800 by mid may.
Take a look at the weekly charts, they tell the clearest story.
Apart from the SPG short that I initiated today I am buying OTM puts on ES. Will stop out if $sox closes above 270.
Take a look at the weekly charts, they tell the clearest story.
Apart from the SPG short that I initiated today I am buying OTM puts on ES. Will stop out if $sox closes above 270.