Is the worst of the recession Over?

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

We're not about talking econ 101 my friend. Full emp means jack poop poo.

Inflation is Monetary.

Look at the data.

You may be right
I may be crazy;

But it just may be a lunatic $10,000 toiler plunger soon you're looking for (with 13 million lost jobs and counting);

Turn out the light
Dont try to save me;

You may be wrong for all I know
But you may be right

 

[Dr. Zhivodka]

Billy Joel is not the one I'd look to for wisdom. Especially when it comes cash and stuffs and things.

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

You may be right
I may be crazy;

But it just may be a lunatic $10,000 toiler plunger soon you're looking for (with 13 million lost jobs and counting);

Turn out the light
Dont try to save me;

You may be wrong for all I know
But you may be right

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

Billy Joel is not the one I'd look to for wisdom. Especially when it comes cash and stuffs and things.

Well, I can't argue with that.

I can argue against the increasingly common 'conventional wisdom' that inflation is about to run amok, and also inflate equity prices, simply because the government is pumping cash into the financial sector, at a time when resource utilization and real consumption are plunging and unemployment is skyrocketing.

 

[Dr. Zhivodka]

I hear ya. I really do. I'm not saying it's going straight up I'm just saying that now for the first time in years I feel that Monetary policy is now incredabilty accomdative. Inflation can occur without employment or GDP growth.

And the CAPEX figures are not all that bad. And as I said before the deflator is rising. We shall see.

The headlines and anecdotes suck. But there's no money in that.

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Well, I can't argue with that.

I can argue against the increasingly common 'conventional wisdom' that inflation is about to run amok, and also inflate equity prices, simply because the government is pumping cash into the financial sector, at a time when resource utilization and real consumption are plunging and unemployment is skyrocketing.

 

[drsteph]

Quote from Splat:

IMO The governments are hyping and propping up the markets (quantitative easing, etc...) and trying to create a perception that things are getting better so that people start spending money to heal the economy. At the end of the day they know that propping the banks alone is not the end. It is when the public start using and letting go of their money that pressures on the economies will start to ease.
Right now the markets have a much higher strength relative to the daily news that is coming out. I think that the longer the government continues the hype the longer the crisis will last. Its like trying to patch up a wound with makeup - the underlying wound is still there and unless that heals the underlying problems are still there....

Concur.

Why do we need our chief executive spreading cheer and relief every other day?

The only problem is that the media manipulation is getting obvious to even those who are daft. Perhaps we get a bounce out of this but the fundamentals won't change. Eventually there will be another reckoning - probably not as soon as any of us permabears expect but it will come.

The titanic struggle of monetary inflation vs credit destruction deflation continues. Hold on to your hats kids - gonna be a bumpy ride.

 

[4444CJones4444]

Quote from monty21:



What do you psychics predict?

Here you go. August 2010:

 

[Mvic]

Major U.S. Retailers Face Net Store Loss After Closing More Stores Than They Opened in 2008

http://www.costar.com/News/Article.aspx?id=3E4BE95B7E0C86C472575C145DCC44B0

If things don't turn by next week looks like I will be stopped out of my shorts (SRS calls, SPG puts, ES puts) which are taking a royal beating. Sox looks like it is confirming the breakout to the upside and is close to hitting my 271 stop. If Sox closes above 271 SP above 895 I will go long, until then staying short.

 

[[Proximo]]

You'll go long and then it will reverse :]