Is the worst of the recession Over?

Is the recession over? Will the S&P 500 make a new low at 666?

  • Yes... we will break the 666 level

    Votes: 53 45.7%

  • No... but we will go under 700 again

    Votes: 39 33.6%

  • No... we won't get even close

    Votes: 24 20.7%
  • Total voters
    116
M

monty21

Will the S&P 500 return to the 666 low?

President Obama's cheer leading staff doesn't think so:

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25354778-5012769,00.html

I think the fundamentals are dismal at best (http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-ecocharts.html?mod=mdc_h_econhl) and we will return to make another low. I'm also awaiting for more info about the stress tests. I believe that a lot of the "good" earnings of financial institutions was related to their purchasing of AIG's assets with pennies to the dollar and then turning around a quick profit.

List any compelling articles whose authors can see the future...

What do you psychics predict?
 
Quote from monty21:

Will the S&P 500 return to the 666 low?

President Obama's cheer leading staff doesn't think so:

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25354778-5012769,00.html

I think the fundamentals are dismal at best (http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-ecocharts.html?mod=mdc_h_econhl) and we will return to make another low. I'm also awaiting for more info about the stress tests. I believe that a lot of the "good" earnings of financial institutions was related to their purchasing of AIG's assets with pennies to the dollar and then turning around a quick profit.

List any compelling articles whose authors can see the future...

What do you psychics predict?
More...
i dont think so either. in order to go lower than 666 we would have to recreate the panic that took us there the first time.i just cant see anything that could scare the market worse than the news in the last 5 months.
 
Quote from vhehn:

i dont think so either. in order to go lower than 666 we would have to recreate the panic that took us there the first time.i just cant see anything that could scare the market worse than the news in the last 5 months.
More...

It's far less of a fall, and sentiment can change quickly (humans are emotional and results-oriented). I have no idea what will happen, but there are major problems in the system that need to be flushed, and that it's going to need more than this to do it. I doubt people have learned their lesson, as they rarely even do.
 
The last recession ended in 2001 yet the market didn't bottom out til 2003. Employment didn't pick up til mid 2004. There are a lot more problems today than in the last recession.

If you have the capital, China may be a far more profitable place to invest or start a business than the U.S.. I saw a couple of articles quoting Buffet as saying something along the line of "the 19th century belonged to Britain, the 20th to the US but the 21st century will belong to China."
 
i like GE its screaming buy....
"Shareholders equity declined $4 billion to $101 billion. Subtracting goodwill and intangibles of $95 billion and Buffett’s preferred stock of $3 billion would yield TCE of just $3 billion. That $3 billion supports tangible assets of $666 billion, implying a leverage ratio of, gulp, 222x. And GE has an asset bucket labeled “other” of $122 billion. How much of that pile is intangible?"
 
The recession being over and the S&P staying above 666 are two different things.

IMO the recession is no way near ended. I think there's a 50%+ chance of new lows in the S&P, although short-term I'm a bit bullish.
 
Quote from otcstockfund:

i like GE its screaming buy....
"Shareholders equity declined $4 billion to $101 billion. Subtracting goodwill and intangibles of $95 billion and Buffett’s preferred stock of $3 billion would yield TCE of just $3 billion. That $3 billion supports tangible assets of $666 billion, implying a leverage ratio of, gulp, 222x. And GE has an asset bucket labeled “other” of $122 billion. How much of that pile is intangible?"
More...

Way to whip out those accounting skills man! We need more of this type of stuff around here. GE is a dead stock in my eyes. It might eventually work it's way back to $25 bucks a share sometime in the next couple of years, but the company is a ticking time bomb, IMO, and represents a major liabilty to its shareholders and the US economy.
 
Sometimes what seems like the light at the end of tunnel is nothing more than thelights of an oncoming train.

I’m more inclined towards believing that it is a just rally in a secular bear market, maybe just the first leg of an ABC correction.
 
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