Is the crypto winter over?

[NoahA]

But now, since $38k happened on Jan 23 eyeballing the charts from your link it's 640k to Feb 22 730k, net inflows delta of +90k and price difference of +$13k

I agree that you can also look at this as well, but this means that something funny is going on, or perhaps, most likely, net inflows from the ETFs didn't really make much of a difference for this first month. Price can't both go down with net inflows, and then go up with net inflows, unless for this first month, the inflows weren't the most critical part. Going forward, they very well might be, but not yet. In a way, the early adopters were blessed because their huge buying didn't move price too much. For those waiting to get in until after ATH, I'm sure that next 100k BTC purchase will absolutely move price much more!

I highlighted your last sentence. This is the premise of Samson Mow, btc to $1M within weeks. He has some videos, I probably won't do him justice paraphrasing him

When a supply shock happens, it becomes a reflexive loop, higher prices begets more interest, begets higher prices, begets more interest, retail and institutions, begets higher prices and when the price becomes too high, it becomes a Veblen item (American Hodl same thought), the higher the price the more everyone wants a piece of it, fueling more demand while long term hodlers and ETF's are not selling any, and the miners stop selling ( the worst traders always holding on to bitcoins during bull market and always selling at the bear market bottom to pay for operational costs)

Anyway, I am fully aware of your supply shock scenario but remember also that we have the biggest baddest market makers of TradFi able to stop this... until they cannot or will not, when incentives are aligned when their AUM on their ETF's are "enough"

(They = JP Morgan, Virtu, Jane Street, Jump)

I agree 100% with this!

 

[long]

View attachment 334657



There's hope for us perpetual futures traders

https://twitter.com/x/status/1761135705705619761

I like the Peter Schiff reference. A few years ago I listened to Mikhala Petersons Opposing View podcast (#124) about bitcoin, it aired a few days after the ATH and he was the bear. His argument was logical while the BTC bull (Robert Breedlove) came across as a BTC religious fanatic. Breedlove seemed to only say how strong his belief in BTC was but wasn’t able to give any reason for BTC price to keep rising other than self-fulfilling-prophecy. At the time I was looking to possibly make some swing trades in BTC for the first time but Schiffs argument caused me to look the other way. What got me interested in BTC last fall is I started running into more non-trading average people who were talking about crypto. In September I met a family that had sold a home + 20 acres to buy crypto, they’re living in an RV at the moment. They mentioned the ETF applications and the XRP ruling and that’s what caused me to start investigating it. I started watching the chart. Before that I was of the opinion that we’d never see another ATH until BTC became a medium of exchange. I didn’t buy into to the “store of wealth” pitch and I still wrestle with the idea that it could hit 7 figures without the “medium of exchange” function. My bull bet is that the crackdown on fraud, fund participation, and regulation is moving closer to achieving that milestone. Once a non-savvy average individual can walk into a bank/realtor and use BTC to buy a home without having to first convert to fiat, then it will be unstoppable. The biggest gains should come right before that scenario is possible.

 

[johnarb]

Once a non-savvy average individual can walk into a bank/realtor and use BTC to buy a home without having to first convert to fiat, then it will be unstoppable. The biggest gains should come right before that scenario is possible.

Why are you fixated on spending bitcoins?

Bitcoin is a store of value, it's meant to be a savings account, spending it on shitty stuff like real estate is one of the worst things you can do with it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1761419925791367539

 

[schizo]

I have to laugh at this one. Why are you crypto folks always trying to reinvent the wheels? There's a more modest term called "gunning stops" that is (or was) already in wide circulation in the equity/futures arena. Scam wick, LOL.

 

[schizo]

I read an article earlier that BTC halving will take place sometime in April, without specifying any particular date. How does this actually work? Who gets to decide when the halving will take place? And once the halving takes place, does the number of your BTC then automatically double? I imagine this is the same as 1-for-2 split (or is that 2-for-1?)

 

[johnarb]

I read an article earlier that BTC halving will take place sometime in April, without specifying any particular date. How does this actually work? Who gets to decide when the halving will take place? And once the halving takes place, does the number of your BTC then automatically double? I imagine this is the same as 1-for-2 split (or is that 2-for-1?)

No

Bitcoin halving simply means the reward to the miners will be cut in half per block. These are new bitcoins. The Bitcoin software code is already written, there's no one making the decision to cut the bitcoin reward per block every 210,000 block

https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769

 

[schizo]

No

Bitcoin halving simply means the reward to the miners will be cut in half per block. These are new bitcoins. The Bitcoin software code is already written, there's no one making the decision to cut the bitcoin reward per block every 210,000 block

https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769

Oh, how silly of me. I really should hit the damn books. In fact, I picked up a few over this weekend.

 

[johnarb]

Oh, how silly of me. I really should hit the damn books. In fact, I picked up a few over this weekend.

I hope you got these 2 on your list

• The Bitcoin Standard
• Digital Gold: Bitcoin and the Inside Story of the Misfits and Millionaires Trying to Reinvent Money

 

[long]

Why are you fixated on spending bitcoins?

Bitcoin is a store of value, it's meant to be a savings account, spending it on shitty stuff like real estate is one of the worst things you can do with it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1761419925791367539

The first intended use for bitcoin was as an actual currency. Its creators called it a “cryptocurrency”. People have used bitcoin as a currency and the dark web examples aren’t the only people who did it. Until yesterday I was thinking that buying BTC was akin to buying euros or yen expecting them to appreciate against the dollar.

I just learned in a different thread yesterday that the tax consequences of moving BTC in and out of your account isn’t like spending and receiving dollars. It’s viewed as a security now, so capital gains taxes would apply each time you sent someone some BTC to purchase something with it. This tax classification removed the one original utility BTC was designed for, medium of exchange. I realize now that it can never be money when it’s viewed as a security by the authorities.

 

[Heydrrich]

Can you do a prediction on the weekly XauBtc chart ?