Here are some of the lines in the sand. I think we'll eventually hit 33,000 though. I feel pretty optimistic after today's runup.
Is the crypto winter over?
- Thread starter schizo
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Here are some of the lines in the sand. I think we'll eventually hit 33,000 though. I feel pretty optimistic after today's runup.
Thanks mate.
We hit the previous resistance at 22,780 today. The question then is, will we continue to shoot for the moon or will there be a pullback (possibly down to the support at 21,500) before heading up again? What's happened in the last 2 weeks is complete parabolic and I feel we're pretty extended. As they say, the higher you go up, the bigger the splash on the way down. Hence, any pullback will actually be a good thing for the long run IMO.
But what if this buying is actually just spot buying by people who want to own it? At some point, the correlation between a futures contract and Bitcoin breaks down. Futures contracts are based on the underlying stock, right? And those people are just trading. Maybe some hold long term, but the entire equities space is financialized. With Bitcoin, it can be different, and as John said in another thread, with stable coins not increasing, this might not be trading activity but buy and hold, and hence the same pocket of air created on this parabolic move might not have to retrace.
Damn, Solana is in fire. Despite all its problems, she's trying to break out into a rocket ship. Now I almost regret not trying to buy more JOKE coins while they were on the fire-sale.
I simply purchased a bakers-dozen months ago so I could say that at one time in history I bought some. Haha. And not at the sticker shocker price of $300.
I simply purchased a bakers-dozen months ago so I could say that at one time in history I bought some. Haha. And not at the sticker shocker price of $300.
I don't know enough about the underlying mechanism of Bitcoin to comment on that. But, after having traded equities and futures markets for 30 years, I can say with confidence that there's nothing new under the sun. It's all driven by human greed and fear. And might I add, EVERYTHING REPEATS, including greed and fear. Last time, it was the Internet bubble. This time, it's the Blockchain. Next time, it's most likely Artificial Intelligence. And so on and so on.
BTW if what you say is correct (viz buy and hold forever), BTC should have never come down from its ATH at 66k, right?
I think bitcoin continues going up over the weekend, hopefully above $23k tomorrow and above $24k by Sunday
I have a swing-trade position and plan to trade tomorrow if there's good volume and volatility
Weekends are great, pure bitcoin market, no stock market noise, bulls and bears, longs and shorts
tl;dr below
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The spot-buying was based on some on-chain analysis I saw posted on Twitter last week, we were actually waiting for an announcement from a major institution, i.e. Apple but no announcement
It's all good, maybe not done accumulating, who knows it could be Peter Thiel fund trying to buy back in, which is why after almost a year, they release the info they sold, yea, sure, Peter, you're giving us good Alpha coz you're a nice guy, dude
I wrote a post on my crypto macro thread towards the end of December, laying the groundwork for a long crypto winter with no plans to sell, being financially and emotionally ready for bitcoin to go down to $10k
Now with bitcoin at $22k, my portfolio is up over 40% in $ value. from my pov, I have no desire whatsoever to sell any bitcoin or any crypto asset and I'm much much stronger psychologically having all these cushion. Even if bitcoin goes to $35k tomorrow, won't sell a single bitcoin
That's about the psychology of hodlers, we held from $69k to $15k, fuck $35k or $45k, no sale!!!
So my opinion is that $22k is peanuts, and this weekend, the NGU tech of bitcoin we refer to is going to be tested, my opinion is that we continue going higher over the weekend as more and more people see the NGU, they will fomo in
That's the thing about Bitcoin, no one wants it when the price is low or going down, but as the price goes up, it entices people to buy in. higher price begets higher price, aka reflexiivity
Over 340,000 people just learned they no longer have any bitcoins or cryptos that's only on Gemini Earn, what about the ones from Fidelity and other platforms using Genesis for crypto yields
These people will be looking at the prices of bitcoin and crypto assets this weekend and put yourself in their shoes, you'll want to buy your bitcoins back, no?
Some of them are rich, and some are filthy rich
I share your enthusiasm but you gotta tread carefully. I know nothing about the fundamentals, but speaking from the technicals, BTC isn't completely out of the dark yet. First, there should be a HIGHER LOW, which we haven't seen yet. Hence why I was advocating for a pullback earlier. Also, we went up too damn fast this last two weeks. These parabolic moves are highly suspect, very susceptible to reversals. I call these booby traps.
Here's what I think will happen. As we clear above the line drawn below, newbies will think BTC will have finally turned the corner. Naively IMO. That would be the best way for the smart money to entrap the gullibles amongst us. Smart money always like to violently shake out any weak hands before driving the price up (or down).
