Is the crypto winter over?

[schizo]

Like you, I never understood why Bitcoin doesn't just go up continuously since everyone like us who are bullish are not selling, but then you have all these tradfi companies that make lots of profits from shorting and hedging, but when they blow up, they don't lose, only the Genesis, Voyager, Gemini Earn, BlockFi, Celsius customers are the ones that get hurt...

It all comes down to fear and greed, pure and simple. However, of the two, fear is more powerful. Hence the saying the market takes the stairs up but the elevator down. Psychologists have shown that normal people do whacky things in fearful situations. Investors and traders are no different. They become insanely irrational and totally impulsive in bear markets.

That's why I said earlier in this thread that you shouldn't rely too much on your crypto cohorts. They say they're HODL'ers til' death do them apart (from their coins), but when the fear factor kicks in, you can bet they'll sell their cryptos in a heartbeat.

 

[johnarb]

That's why I said earlier in this thread that you shouldn't rely too much on your crypto cohorts. They say they're HODL'ers til' death do them apart (from their coins), but when the fear factor kicks in, you can bet they'll sell their cryptos in a heartbeat.

This would be the third time that you've said this. Why do you assume that I rely on the Bitcoin hodlers bros?

Wait, did I ever post that our living expenses are being paid by them?

That's odd, I never got a single penny or satoshi from any of them for the past 10 years, so I don't know how reliable they are

[I converted it to bitcoin as all other crypto assets in my portfolio can be sold off, but I would not sell all my bitcoins]

I understood you the first 2 times you posted it, but go ahead and post it several more times, in fact post it every week if you'd like

All Bitcoiners are free to dump all their bitcoins on the market 24/7/365. That's the point of being decentralized

 

[The_Krakenite]

They say they're HODL'ers til' death do them apart (from their coins), but when the fear factor kicks in, you can bet they'll sell their cryptos in a heartbeat.

I think you have this inverted. Or I am not understanding fully.

Gold: Amount grows 1% each year due to miners.
Bitcoin: Grows (but halves the increase-rate ~ every 4-years) from miners.

Gold will grow until it's fully mined from earth.
Bitcoin supply will grow until the hard cap of 21-million is mined.

Gold has its "Gold Bugs". These people never sell.
Bitcoin has its "Hodlers". These people never sell.

The rare exception is when both these investors get caught in the cross-fire of a margin-call.

 

[semperfrosty]

This would be the third time that you've said this. Why do you assume that I rely on the Bitcoin hodlers bros?

Wait, did I ever post that our living expenses are being paid by them?

That's odd, I never got a single penny or satoshi from any of them for the past 10 years, so I don't know how reliable they are

[I converted it to bitcoin as all other crypto assets in my portfolio can be sold off, but I would not sell all my bitcoins]

I understood you the first 2 times you posted it, but go ahead and post it several more times, in fact post it every week if you'd like

All Bitcoiners are free to dump all their bitcoins on the market 24/7/365. That's the point of being decentralized

I can see both sides of the argument here.

I'm sure there are a couple of wives out there saying "when you get your money back,take it.And im locking you out of the family savings!".So for that and many other reasons including perceived opportunity cost or just exhaustion I can see what Schiz is saying.

What JA is saying is that at this stage it doesnt matter,the demand is there.For every seller there will be a buyer and the investment community is becoming more and more aware of the potential.

 

[johnarb]

I can see both sides of the argument here.

I'm sure there are a couple of wives out there saying "when you get your money back,take it.And im locking you out of the family savings!".So for that and many other reasons including perceived opportunity cost or just exhaustion I can see what Schiz is saying.

What JA is saying is that at this stage it doesnt matter,the demand is there.For every seller there will be a buyer and the investment community is becoming more and more aware of the potential.

Wife is as much a hodler as me

She can access all the bitcoins and cryptos on all blockchains and crypto platforms, i.e. defi smartcontracts, in case something happens to me like a heart attack or head trauma, my only instructions, money management, hodl and take care of the kids, everything will be fine

 

[Ed48]

I think I read that, out of the 19.5 million coins mined so far, an estimated 6 million have been lost. That leaves around 13.5 million available to trade. How many of these are in long term storage and never traded?

Around 900 new coins ($24m) are mined a day, which I imagine is small compared to the average daily volume.

I don't know if there are any accurate figures for daily volume but it would be kind of interesting to know what % of the 13.5 million available coins change hands on an average day, and how this compares to stocks with a similar market cap.

 

[deaddog]

I don't know if there are any accurate figures for daily volume but it would be kind of interesting to know what % of the 13.5 million available coins change hands on an average day, and how this compares to stocks with a similar market cap.

From stockcharts.com I get an average (20 week) weekly volume of 267K. I have no idea who reports that volume?

 

[The_Krakenite]

In regard to volume, stock-volume is often mis-represented. Yet 99% of day-traders don't know this, but will act like they can read this from the tape

Let's say we want to know the volume of Toronto Dominion Bank, or the Royal Canadian Bank trading on Canadian domiciled territory for the day.

Someone will go to Yahoo Finance, put in the ticker TD.TO, and find 3,335,360 shares.

As a test for accuracy, they may even go to the official TMX website, and look up volume for TD on the Toronto Exchange. Sure enough, you get the same 3,335,360 shares reported for daily volume.

Here is a trick. Add :CC at the end of that ticker while on the TMX site ":CC" is for Consolidated Volume. This includes stocks through other minor exchanges and Over-the-Counter.

Suddenly, your TD and RBC tickers explode in volume. TD jumping to 5,192,322.

 

[johnarb]

Yup, short from 26.5K. (And I'm trading like a noob. This is actually where you want to go long. Hopefully she won't let me down this time. Fingers crossed.)

If you're still short from 26.5k, it would make sense to add or double your short position, instead of reversing to long here... NFA

 

[The_Krakenite]

I took a small advantage on today's down-day to short a LEAP over Coin.