Is the crypto winter over?
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
PVP, the best and biggest traders liquidating the fishes longs and shorts, very profitable for some, not so much for others
You shorted at $26.5k?
All the Bitcoiners are in the biggest Bitcoin only conference in the world happening in Miami. There are no buyers of bitcoins. After the conference, they party and get drunk
/sarcasm
In retrospect, my initial call that we would be heading down to 23K is still intact. But making calls is one thing. Actually trading this manic-depressive beast is another. I haven't yet transitioned to day trading BTC yet. Maybe I should.
Yup, short from 26.5K. (And I'm trading like a noob. This is actually where you want to go long. Hopefully she won't let me down this time. Fingers crossed.)
Last edited:
I shorted a LEAP on Microstrategy and got a fill. I am quite prepared to have the price drop through my strike at some point, but expect things to be looking good around the halving. Now I will play the sit & wait game while I figure what stupid stock (like Sonos) to pour my 8.3K into.
I agree.
I saw this with lithium a few years back.
The big money keeps things in a range and then controls the moves out of those ranges.
Its actually,possibly a bullish sign but it slows things down and you start to sense manipulation.
The manipulators are successful during bear markets when there's not a lot of liquidity, but they know better to ride the bull market just like everyone does
In the mean time, the shrimps hodlers of less than 1 btc are accumulating at the fastest pace in the history of Bitcoin
And bitcoin hodlers are withdrawing from exchanges and cefi's, causing the supply to be at the lowest levels
If you truly believe in this Bitcoin and crypto revolution, the short term is just noise
To be perfectly honest, I already see the price of 1 bitcoin at $1M, but I know the market will not price it as $1M until later... maybe 7-10 years. But what it does to my mindset is to make sure I have as much bitcoins for that eventual price
In the mean time, I keep myself busy and to make sure to survive the short term
I to this day don't understand the figure of how much supply is at exchanges. The numbers quoted are that there are 2 millions coins on exchanges.
The only way I can see to verify this is via all the cold and hot wallets of these exchanges. But the thing is that these wallets have to hold bitcoin that are already spoked for by the customers. We know FTX had 80k bitcoins that they didn't own but were on the books are being owned by customers. Even if FTX had a wallet with 80k bitcoins, FTX themselves wouldn't have been the owner of this. Would articles be claiming that 80k bitcoins are on exchanges? Technically all those coins were already spoken for. So if if someone show me a Binance wallet with 100k coins, this doesn't mean it has this many to sell.
If 2M are on exchanges waiting to be sold, how did the exchanges accumulate them? Did they buy them from the miners? I thought miners are reluctant to sell. I use an exchange that is local to my country. They don't do any shady lending and don't even have staking, and have some sort of backing like banks to protect deposits, so I feel good having some cash there and also bitcoin that I wait to withdraw until its a big enough move. (I don't want to have hundreds of UTXO's in my wallet) So I wonder how much bitcoin they actually own. Its a small business so its not like they have 1,000 bitcoin just waiting to be bought. And this is my point. I don't think there are exchanges out there that hold a shit ton of inventory as if they are valued are hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. How did the exchange get so rich to have this much inventory?
When you start a car dealership, you need to have cars on the lot to sell. But in order to do this, you have to get a loan from the bank. Perhaps the car manufacturer lets you borrow the car until it is sold so it can sit on your lot and costs you nothing. But somehow, if you're gonna have 30 cars on your lot, you need to have lots of money because I think most times, that car has to be purchased before you sell it to the customer. So how do exchanges have 2 million BTC in their possession that 100% belong to them so they can sell them?
So I honestly have no idea how this fits into all of these calculations. Of course the beautiful thing about bitcoin is that we can see where all the coins are. I've seen posts that show the biggest wallets and who own them, but its very sparse.
My understanding is that the exchanges function is to match buyers with sellers. They may run their own book but for the most part they just find you a buyer when you want to sell or vise versa.
The miners have to sell some product just to pay the bills. Traders are buying and selling.