Totally agree, and we haven't even had the consumer implode yet (likely going to happen). This bear is going to be far deeper than most people believe. Stats of past recessions are irrelevant this time around. Its amazing that most economists don't grasp this (Roubini does, and Zandi to a certain extent). The industry is definitely populated by lemmings!
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Is the bear over?
- Thread starter Cutten
- Start date
Totally agree, and we haven't even had the consumer implode yet (likely going to happen). This bear is going to be far deeper than most people believe. Stats of past recessions are irrelevant this time around. Its amazing that most economists don't grasp this (Roubini does, and Zandi to a certain extent). The industry is definitely populated by lemmings!
This bear market is still not that scary... only baby..... give it some time......
http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A9G_bDk4n...p://www.flickr.com/photos/_esprit/2332098585/
http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A9G_bDk4n...p://www.flickr.com/photos/_esprit/2332098585/
Interesting point about 1990's UK recession made by United46 a while back. The market held up while housing and the economy tanked and only had a heavy sell off i.e. climax right at what turned out to be the recovery point. This is not as I remembered it but I looked at the chart and it was so.
I remember daily volumes were insufficiient for market makers to cover overheads and I left the UK right at the bottom, shortly after our trader sold his personal equity holdings on the grounds that there was absolutely no point in holding shares. We are not at that point yet, but the point is IMHO the economy may have a lot further (i.e another 2 years) to go but the economy and the market may not move in lockstep.
I remember daily volumes were insufficiient for market makers to cover overheads and I left the UK right at the bottom, shortly after our trader sold his personal equity holdings on the grounds that there was absolutely no point in holding shares. We are not at that point yet, but the point is IMHO the economy may have a lot further (i.e another 2 years) to go but the economy and the market may not move in lockstep.
If the bear is already over, this would mark one of the shallowest bears on record.
Considering whats going on in the credit markets, housing markets, US currency, oil prices, trade deficit, and consumer debt in a consumer driven economy, I somehow seriously doubt this will end as one of the tiniest bears of all time.
Since 1950, the average drop during bear markets was 29 per cent and the average duration was about 13 months.
In the eight bear markets since 1962 the S&P 500 dropped an average of 33 per cent over about 12 months.
In the 11 previous bear markets since 1946, stocks fell an average of 30.4 per cent over a similar time frame.
If this turns out to be an average bear market, we've got another three months of pain, during which the index should fall another 9-13 percent
Somehow, I have a feeling this will be a bit more than an average bear market.
Considering whats going on in the credit markets, housing markets, US currency, oil prices, trade deficit, and consumer debt in a consumer driven economy, I somehow seriously doubt this will end as one of the tiniest bears of all time.
Since 1950, the average drop during bear markets was 29 per cent and the average duration was about 13 months.
In the eight bear markets since 1962 the S&P 500 dropped an average of 33 per cent over about 12 months.
In the 11 previous bear markets since 1946, stocks fell an average of 30.4 per cent over a similar time frame.
If this turns out to be an average bear market, we've got another three months of pain, during which the index should fall another 9-13 percent
Somehow, I have a feeling this will be a bit more than an average bear market.
Previous 11 bear markets
columns = date, months from peak to trough, percentage loss
columns = date, months from peak to trough, percentage loss
Code:
Apr.-56 to Oct.-57 15 -21.6
Dec.-61 to Jun.-62 7 -28.0
Feb.-66 to Oct.-66 8 -22.2
Nov.-68 to May-70 18 -36.1
Jan.-73 to Dec.-74 23 -45.9
Sep.-76 to Mar.-78 18 -19.4
Jan.-81 to Aug.-82 19 -25.8
Aug.-87 to Oct.-87 2 -33.2
Jul.-90 to Oct.-90 3 -19.9
Jul.-98 to Aug.-98 2 -19.3
Mar.-00 to Oct.-02 31 -49.1Quote from traderdragon2:
Previous 11 bear markets
columns = date, months from peak to trough, percentage loss
Code:Apr.-56 to Oct.-57 15 -21.6 Dec.-61 to Jun.-62 7 -28.0 Feb.-66 to Oct.-66 8 -22.2 Nov.-68 to May-70 18 -36.1 Jan.-73 to Dec.-74 23 -45.9 Sep.-76 to Mar.-78 18 -19.4 Jan.-81 to Aug.-82 19 -25.8 Aug.-87 to Oct.-87 2 -33.2 Jul.-90 to Oct.-90 3 -19.9 Jul.-98 to Aug.-98 2 -19.3 Mar.-00 to Oct.-02 31 -49.1
This one is going to be 40%+ when the bear market is finally over...
They continue to say everything is fine that there is no recession, DO NOT LISTEN to those fools, this economy is in a recession at this very moment, by the time they say the recession is here we will be 1/2 way through with it.
Quote from S2007S:
This one is going to be 40%+ when the bear market is finally over...
They continue to say everything is fine that there is no recession, DO NOT LISTEN to those fools, this economy is in a recession at this very moment, by the time they say the recession is here we will be 1/2 way through with it.
Absolutely!
Some of the economists know what we are in for, but you don't hear from them often. It is the JOB of CNBC, etc to either always be bullish, or look for a bottom. Their viewers are the ever long public, so that is what they want to hear. Fucking hilarious to see the RE BROKERS that they interview. Of course a broker is going to say the bottom is here, or near in real estate. Its their analysis that is so funny. Completely irrational, or they take one month stats in hand picked markets. "Prices are up in Plano Texas, we must be at the low".
Quote from Jayford:
Absolutely!
Some of the economists know what we are in for, but you don't hear from them often. It is the JOB of CNBC, etc to either always be bullish, or look for a bottom. Their viewers are the ever long public, so that is what they want to hear. Fucking hilarious to see the RE BROKERS that they interview. Of course a broker is going to say the bottom is here, or near in real estate. Its their analysis that is so funny. Completely irrational, or they take one month stats in hand picked markets. "Prices are up in Plano Texas, we must be at the low".
You make a very significant mistake in thinking that CNBC represents some sort of a "consensus" view on the markets.
CNBC represents nothing.
Absolutely nothing.