Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

How accurately can you predict the next bar or candle?

  • Total voters
    39
  • Poll closed .
semperfrosty said:
Yep Sim is great.
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Hello semperfrosty,

Yes for certainty. I was in SIM for many years making sure I do not lose all my savings account money.

I did lose about -$9, 000 when I first started trading and I lost $13,000 trading an algo. Not the algo fault, that damn drawdown push me to my limits.

That is why I was suggesting to @NoahA, focus on the losing part mentally and physically, cause drawdown and not knowing if the bleeding will ever stop is challenging, atleast for me it was/is.
 
volpri said:
And a lot of practice as one must hone their techniques.

I wouldn't sell at bar 9:35 because at that point we had.... what?

1)gap opening

2) bears failed to reverse and trends strongly up.

3) At bar 9:35 it is just a PB and profit taking at that point. We don't yet know if it is going into a range but there are some indications in may. Why? 2 legs up. Best to wait after profit taking and see if it continues up off the PB or morphs into a range.

4) However, if I did short bar 9:35 my stoploss has to be at min above high of bar 9:30 and if by chance I got taken out on that SL I would assume it is probably going up for at least a small third leg and I would double up long my previous short size. That puts the odds back in my favor of getting at least my loss back in short order and maybe print money.

The overall context is an opening spike (gap leg #1.), A PB (bars 8:30 - bars 9:00) then a continuation of the bullish spike. At this point it is for all practical purpose ....a channel. Leg 2 is made in that channel. Remember the market cycle. Trend ( BO...spike...etc), first PB then resumption (leg#2) becomes a channel. Channels usually start to flatten out and price goes into a TR or a several bar pause for profit taking. bars 9:05 thru bars 9:50. If keeps going sideway after that then it is likely going into a TR. Once price after those PB bars 30, 35, and 40 continue sideways for 20 bars counting from left (see my box) then we are no longer in a PB but a TR and that is when I use TR techniques. Sometimes I will fudge a little that and start before 20 bars if I think it is just going to keep going sideways.
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Forgot to thank you for the explanation.
 
ironchef said:
Actually @NoahA that is the only thing he said that made any sense to me.
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Hello ironchef,

Well, ironchef, what else makes sense? What other choice does a trader have?

You only have 4 choices buddy:

Choice 1 : Click the Buy Button
Choice 2. Click the Sell Button
Choice 3. Click the Compile button on the algo code you programmed
Choice 4. Click the Back test button to see if the algo make money per your liking.

Hopefully one of those choices make money.

Sorry, if I keep things so simple.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Hello ironchef,

Well, ironchef, what else makes sense? What other choice does a trader have?

You only have 4 choices buddy:

Choice 1 : Click the Buy Button
Choice 2. Click the Sell Button
Choice 3. Click the Compile button on the algo code you programmed
Choice 4. Click the Back test button to see if the algo make money per your liking.

Hopefully one of those choices make money.

Sorry, if I keep things so simple.
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Mine is simpler:

Choice 1: Click Buy
Choice 2: Click Sell

I don't have any algo, so no Choices 3 & 4, they are NoOp.

Then I count my losses. Remember, you said I have to learn how to lose money. :banghead:
 
ironchef said:
Mine is simpler:

Choice 1: Click Buy
Choice 2: Click Sell

I don't have any algo, so no Choices 3 & 4, they are NoOp.

Then I count my losses. Remember, you said I have to learn how to lose money. :banghead:
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Hello ironchef,

You are wise man for making your life simple. I do click buy and click sell as well.

Algo research and development will take you years, and you may still get it wrong. Keep clicking manually
 
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ironchef said:
Then I count my losses. Remember, you said I have to learn how to lose money. :banghead:
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Hello ironchef,

Correct! This is the last step of the journey, learning how to lose money and click again without altering mental. Learning to make money is easy, anybody can do that. Learning how to lose money physically, mentally, spiritually, normally, repeatable, consistently without sadness is the last step to freedom.

And we all lose money emotionally differently, so what I have to say about losses may not fit with you.

You gotta figure it out.
 
schizo said:
Random walk theory claims that prices move randomly and are not influenced by their past. Because of this, it is impossible to use past price action to predict the future. But is it? You might not be able to predict what would happen in the distant future, but what about the next bar or candle? How many of you have a pretty good track record when it comes to guessing the next bar correctly?
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More proof of the determinism of the market. You can see here that to complete the C&H McDonalds would need an earnings miss. Past price not only affects future price, it dictates it. The chart was essentially forecasting this earnings outcome. If you go Hari Seldon deep the chart will forecast every outcome. The Medallion fund I believe tapped into this phenomenon with an advanced form of EW/fractal/ pattern based algorithm.

Clipboard03.jpg
 
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SunTrader said:
Any reason why your chart image is not showing any bars between 310am and 830am?
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It is a day session chart not a 24 hour chart. The 3:10 is not a.m. but close of previous day session so 3:10 p.m. so that bar is the last 5 minutes of the previous day session.

The 8:30 a.m. bar is the open of the next day session. That gap up that I labeled leg#1 is what happened in the overnight session before that 8:30 open. That gap can be represented by one big bull bar in terms of function. So I just call it leg one. Hope that explains.
 
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