Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

[SimpleMeLike]

Please go ahead, I don't mind.

Hello ironchef,

Stop looking for this thing called Edge. Please stop all this back testing stuff. It is a WASTE of your time.

Please just figure out how to make money EVERY day/week trading for the rest of your life in the ES futures market.

Life would be much more simpler this way for your mental.

 

[schizo]

$4,167 x 20 trading days a month x 12 months = $1,000,000+ annually.
+1 tick x 100 ES contracts = $1250 gross.
Are you prepared with a proper mindset and discipline to repeat that trade 4x a day?

Yeah, but you need to come up with a better example. If you can trade 100 lots, you're probably a millionaire already.

 

[ondafringe]

Yeah, but you need to come up with a better example. If you can trade 100 lots, you're probably a millionaire already.

Agreed. Very unrealistic. I think something like this would be a better example:

Think Small

What is the minimum amount of dollars you would have to make per year to justify your continued pursuit of such a head-banging experience?

Let’s assume you come up with $30,000/year.

Think Backwards

$30,000 / 12 = $2,500/month.

Further assume your goal is to trade 10 contracts on ES, which is $500/point.

2,500 / 500 = 5 points (that’s it, that’s all you need to make per month)

Five points x 10 ES contracts = $2,500/month x 12 months = $30k/year, less transaction costs and slippage.

===============================

On average, there are about 21 trading days per month. Assume that, for whatever reasons, there will be a handful of days per month you won’t trade. Being conservative, let’s say you count on trading only 15 days per month.

5 (points) / 15 (trading days) = 0.33 (points)

On average, you would only need to make a little more than one ES tick per day for those 15 days, so shoot for 2 ticks... BUT you would have to be comfortable trading with an upside-down risk:reward ratio... and accept that transaction cost will be very high, percentage-wise.

And if you can do that 2+ times per day, you're at least making a living.

 

[ironchef]

Long(er) term MONETARY "goal" has NOTHING, NOTHING to do with back testing or otherwise developing an "edge", trading plan, system, method, or the likes.

$4,167 x 20 trading days a month x 12 months = $1,000,000+ annually.
Does your choice of instrument, capital, and available time allow it to occur?

+1 tick x 100 ES contracts = $1250 gross.
Are you prepared with a proper mindset and discipline to repeat that trade 4x a day?

Meanwhile, you are more concerned with whether you trend trade or scalp.
No wonder you can't get out of the starting blocks.

Age is not a factor for neither trading success or trading failure.

I trade stocks, 1 tick x 100 XXX is $1 gross.

But your points are well taken. I understand what you are trying to tell me.

Thanks.

 

[NoahA]

Hello ironchef,

Stop looking for this thing called Edge. Please stop all this back testing stuff. It is a WASTE of your time.

Please just figure out how to make money EVERY day/week trading for the rest of your life in the ES futures market.

Life would be much more simpler this way for your mental.

Dude... if you're gonna give out advice, we need to see proof of your trading ability since you're now claiming to be making lots of money.

The advice you just gave is like telling a fat person to stop thinking about diet and exercise but just to meditate on being thin.

 

[tiddlywinks]

Yeah, but you need to come up with a better example. If you can trade 100 lots, you're probably a millionaire already.

Scale it however YOU want to.

fwiw, here's AMPs day margin note...

Note: Day Trading margins are twice the displayed amount for account balances exceeding $100K.
Based on all risk factors, Top Level Risk Limits such as Max. Contract Size may be applied when deemed necessary.

My trading account is much less than 100K. I don't trade large size.
And my "goal" is to withdraw funds with no affect on my trading, and put to work OUTSIDE of trading. Yes, I am a millionaire. So what?

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Dude... if you're gonna give out advice, we need to see proof of your trading ability since you're now claiming to be making lots of money.

The advice you just gave is like telling a fat person to stop thinking about diet and exercise but just to meditate on being thin.

Hello NoahA,

What will proof of my trading ability do for your pockets?

If I or someone else show you proof of making money, will that make you rich?

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Scale it however YOU want to.

fwiw, here's AMPs day margin note...

Note: Day Trading margins are twice the displayed amount for account balances exceeding $100K.
Based on all risk factors, Top Level Risk Limits such as Max. Contract Size may be applied when deemed necessary.

My trading account is much less than 100K. I don't trade large size.
And my "goal" is to withdraw funds with no affect on my trading, and put to work OUTSIDE of trading. Yes, I am a millionaire. So what?

Hello tiddlywinks,

This is the BEST comment made on ET forum in A VERY long time. Thank you.

I really think alot of ET members need have an open mind and think stronger about how to make money trading and stop worry about how much money the next member is making.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Dude... if you're gonna give out advice, we need to see proof of your trading ability since you're now claiming to be making lots of money.

The advice you just gave is like telling a fat person to stop thinking about diet and exercise but just to meditate on being thin.

Hello NoahA,

You need to have an open mind and not think so trading traditional.

What you keep looking for, you have enough empirical data as an ET member, to clearly KNOW, you will NOT find it.

Only you have what you are looking for.

In short, the ONLY proof you need to know is, you are NEVER in a million years going to get any proof.

 

[NoahA]

Hello NoahA,

What will proof of my trading ability do for your pockets?

If I or someone else show you proof of making money, will that make you rich?

I see you have finally become successful, but only at mimicking the scammers and charlatans that prey on traders. You gave the perfect excuse to avoid answering the question. Where do I sign up for your course?