Did you read her book? It's a good book.
Yes! There’s an audio version on audible.com.
Is price movement really random and unpredictable?
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Yes! There’s an audio version on audible.com.
I don't think you are quite correct. The true principle of trend following is you buy when it is going up and sell when it goes down.
If you use indicators, perhaps you are correct, you use them to predict if what goes up will continue.
I am interested in 1 tick because you cannot follow closer than 1 tick. The trick is if you don't have anything else to hang your hat on, you really only have a 50/50 chance the next tick after you enter will be up and the net result, after slippages, is you lose.
I relied on gut feel to pick the tick to follow, since win rate is only slightly greater than 50%, I am afraid my gut feel is also mostly random.
You ask too many questions sir.
My head spins reading them.
Let me answer #6: $1M.
Hello ironchef,You ask too many questions sir.
My head spins reading them.
Let me answer #6: $1M.
lol fair enough.
Question:
1. How many years, months, weeks, days does the edge need in back test to prove to you $1million was made?
If I do daily compounding, from an initial capital of $1000, about 5 years if I live trade and the edge is real.
And Mr @SimpleMeLike, that is every trader's dilemma:
If you are young, a twenty or thirty something, you say I can't wait 5 years.
If you are old, one of the over the hill gang, you say I don't have 5 years.
There are quite a few of you folks trading with +1 tick. I tried it today, it is more scalping than trend following?yes ironchef it is a bloody tough game...i could have traded earlier but it took me just over 10 years to make some decent $...i am watching Simplemelike he has turned the corner after 8 years so he is doing well and may it continue. A real good eg on here is Speedo..smart fella...trader and life wise and i wish i had his temperament...he has been doing this many years and quite profitable. Look back at his posts...i know a guy who purely looks at the ladder and the games going on there ...and is doing very well..this is beyond my scope and capabilities...but i admire him for it..One has to find something where method suits personality.Keep reading ET and scour for the nuggets...they are out there but at end of the day you have to do the work yourself...for some it becomes obsession like it did for me.Fusion with the object can be dangerous so one has to learn to disidentify with it.Some find it easier than others to do that...anyhow im drifting a bit
Long(er) term MONETARY "goal" has NOTHING, NOTHING to do with back testing or otherwise developing an "edge", trading plan, system, method, or the likes.
$4,167 x 20 trading days a month x 12 months = $1,000,000+ annually.
Does your choice of instrument, capital, and available time allow it to occur?
+1 tick x 100 ES contracts = $1250 gross.
Are you prepared with a proper mindset and discipline to repeat that trade 4x a day?
Meanwhile, you are more concerned with whether you trend trade or scalp.
No wonder you can't get out of the starting blocks.
Age is not a factor for neither trading success or trading failure.
$4,167 x 20 trading days a month x 12 months = $1,000,000+ annually.
Does your choice of instrument, capital, and available time allow it to occur?
+1 tick x 100 ES contracts = $1250 gross.
Are you prepared with a proper mindset and discipline to repeat that trade 4x a day?
Meanwhile, you are more concerned with whether you trend trade or scalp.
No wonder you can't get out of the starting blocks.
Age is not a factor for neither trading success or trading failure.
Please go ahead, I don't mind.