Is price movement really random and unpredictable?
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
What do you mean by focused on 1 tick? I too used tick by tick as trigger but 1 tick?
For index like SPY I couldn't follow the ticks. Too fast.
Yes too fast in many cases that's why we need fast tools ....signaling...and execution
But there are patterns lending to larger moves and not always short ...
You found any axioms?
Hello ironchef,Back to the drawing board. Doesn't work.
Let me qualify the statement. My thought was: what if I could link all of the trades as a series of continuing trades: buy, then instead of exit sell, closing it out, immediately reverse direction to execute a short.... when everything works and in sync, it can be used as a tight loss control mechanism, will create a series of winners.
Note that prior, each trade I made was stand alone, like a coin toss, each has independent odds and has no memory.
Tried backtesting (using indicators) and it worked great. Paper traded this morning, both with and without indicators.
Worked for a few trades but then it went out of sync and the "small losses" piled up to became "not so small" losses. I had to exit and licked my wounds.
To be successful, it requires great timing skills but the margin of error is paper thin.
I don't have any timing skills, so back to my lower risk approach, treating each trade as unique.
Day trading is sooooo hard, like playing the roulette in Vegas.
You are doing it correct. This is the only way to learn what makes money. Just keep on trying things in SIM.
It only cost you time, not money. So that is a good thing.
Hello beginner66,
You are correct indeed.
Everyone has to figure out how to get rich by themselves. All this looking for help stuff is a waste of good time.
The chart, the buy button and sell button is ALL the help I ever needed. And the cost is $0.00.
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I don't use algo to trade, everything is manual.
I am no expert day trader only have about 6 months of sim and live trades under my belt.
Basically I trade 1 minute chart and use tick by tick chart to track microstructures and 5 min to track trends.
Lately, the duration of each trade has gone shorter and I seldom use the 5 minute chart anymore.
I don't trade with any indicators. I found the standard indicators all lagging and not reliable, often out of sync with the price movement.
I don't know what you meant by axioms? My triggers are mainly gut feel based on a combination of pattern, frequency, momentum and volume. Every day I start when the market opens and stop when I reach my target profits/losses or when the # of trades reaches a predetermined number. All stop losses are mental but tight.
Does it work? I am profitable on paper and live but the jury is still out. I don't think gut feel is an edge if I can't quantify.
Also, 6 months plus a couple of thousand trades are not statistically significant.
yes ironchef it is a bloody tough game...i could have traded earlier but it took me just over 10 years to make some decent $...i am watching Simplemelike he has turned the corner after 8 years so he is doing well and may it continue. A real good eg on here is Speedo..smart fella...trader and life wise and i wish i had his temperament...he has been doing this many years and quite profitable. Look back at his posts...i know a guy who purely looks at the ladder and the games going on there ...and is doing very well..this is beyond my scope and capabilities...but i admire him for it..One has to find something where method suits personality.Keep reading ET and scour for the nuggets...they are out there but at end of the day you have to do the work yourself...for some it becomes obsession like it did for me.Fusion with the object can be dangerous so one has to learn to disidentify with it.Some find it easier than others to do that...anyhow im drifting a bit 
I am honest enough to say I am too dumb, gave up trying to predict anything: I became trend follower.
Do you realize being a trend follower you’re predicting the “trend” is continuing? I suggest watching some YouTube videos by Denise Shull. She has a book called “Market Mind Games”.
Did you read her book? It's a good book.
Good Morning ironchef,
Questions for you please below. Please provide an answer to each question.
1. Why do you think gut feel is not an edge or reliable way to make alot of money?
2. Why do you think you need to quantify a way to make money before actually making alot of money?
3. How do you know you have the right tools and resources to quantify a trading edge to make money before actually making alot of money?
4. How much time, energy and money do you have to quantify a trading edge to make money before actually making alot of money?
5. Please provide some specifics on what you mean by quantify? For example, is 1 week of quantification good enough, 2 months, 2 years, 1 day??
6. How much money does your quantification need to show before you start trading it with real money?
7. Do you have an example of a quantify trading edge you would like to mimic?
8. Do you know any trader or institution that has made a lot of money trading a quantifiable trading edge?
Thank you,
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