Is Peak Oil a Fallacy?

[EON Kid]

If anybody is interested in a balanced perspective then read this


Energy Shift: Game-Changing Options for Fueling the Future
by Eric Spiegel, Rob Norton, Neil McArthur



http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Energy-Shift/Eric-Spiegel/e/9780071508346

 

[TraderZones]

Why Peak Oil is Peak Idiocy: Endless Oil
Jan 11, 2010

Dr. Mark J. Perry

BUSINESS WEEK -- Consumer demand, technology, and global politics are shifting in a way that could spell a future of oil abundance, not of catastrophic dearth. As Leonardo Maugeri, a senior executive at Italian oil major ENI, puts it: "There will be enough oil for at least 100 years."

Many analysts and industry executives have little doubt that there's plenty of oil in the ground. "Only about 32% of the oil [in reserves] is produced," says Val Brock, Shell's head of business development for enhanced oil recovery. Shell estimates 300 billion barrels and maybe more might be squeezed out of existing fields, much of it once thought beyond retrieval. Peter Jackson, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' London-based senior director for oil industry activity, has reviewed data from the world's biggest fields. His conclusion: 60% of their reserves remain available.

The fact that there's still oil for the taking is driving Shell and other majors to come up with new technologies, which are expensive to develop but worth it when crude is riding high. While the price has fallen considerably from the peak of $147 per barrel in 2008, it is still far above what many oilmen expected a few years ago. "You will see companies going into the deep water, going into the arctic, using the best technology," says Maugeri, who sees the oil industry as a dynamic system that responds rapidly to changes in the economic and political environment.

 

[jficquette]

Quote from JSSPMK:

If peak oil is true then why is oil trading below $100, shouldn't it be near $200 or maybe $300, check out commodity prices at times of limited supplies. Saying that crude prices are artificially supressed because of equity markets preservation is horseshit. And what about that graph concerning amount of drills ordered, isn't that a perfect play into peak oilers to pick up upon, after they report it what happens to oil prices, up or down? It's only about money, not end of the world as we know it.

Because the Arabs know that within two generations we won't be using oil for primary energy generation. They pumping that shit like its going out of style lol, because it will be.

 

[rbartell]

We may never know because most of the people that write/report on it distort the facts with some sort of agenda. Given the fluidity of information these days, if there was any honesty in today's culture, we'd have a pretty good idea within a week as to how much fossil fuel is left.

 

[Fat Tails]

Quote from rbartell:

We may never know because most of the people that write/report on it distort the facts with some sort of agenda. Given the fluidity of information these days, if there was any honesty in today's culture, we'd have a pretty good idea within a week as to how much fossil fuel is left.

Go and ask Him, how much is left. We humble humans have limited knowledge, and unless a Great Dictator tells us the truth, we possibly won't agree on the details. Honestly.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from rbartell:

We may never know because most of the people that write/report on it distort the facts with some sort of agenda. Given the fluidity of information these days, if there was any honesty in today's culture, we'd have a pretty good idea within a week as to how much fossil fuel is left.

apparently the Saudis do not allow any sort of surveys, it's based on what they say.

 

[JSSPMK]

Crude vs whaleoil... LOL

 

[Misthos]

Quote from Misthos:

Hydrofracing is very water intensive. After I read up on it I found this company: ESPH.OB interesting stuff they do with the water and they signed up w/ Simmons Co. recently. Bought in at .36 at .50 now.

Check it out. Not comfortable with the amount of shares outstanding and some other issues. But the technology looks pretty impressive.

Anybody take heed of my stock pick here?

ESPH.OB nearing .60

Ecosphere Techonlogies - will be vital in shale gas drilling, IMHO

Know your Peak oil dammit!

 

[moneymonger]

Quote from achilles28:

Energy Companies have a vested interest in keeping the idea of Peak Oil, alive and well.

The belief in Peak Oil keeps a solid bid under the price of Oil.

All the data used to ascertain how much oil is left, relative to new discoveries, is made available by Oil Companies.

It's very possible that Oil Companies have distorted, hid or lied about the reported data in order to make Peak Oil seem very real.

Climategate is a perfect example.

Interestingly, Oil has geological (aboitic origins) - heat, pressure and elements in the earths crust creates oil.

As an extension, out of just the tiny sample of planetoids man has explored, astoundingly, a few are reported to hold vast sea's of hydrocarbons (methane) !!

No dinosaurs there.

Very good point here. One of the great ironies of our time is that the enviormental movement and BIG OIL are in cahoots together.
This is why there has been no new refining compacity
added to the USA in over 30 years. Just try to build a petroleum refinery anywhere in the USA. The 10+ years of litigation would add another 20 to 30% to the price . The benefits of restricted refining compacity to big oil's bottom line is clear.

 

[Fat Tails]

Quote from moneymonger:

Very good point here. One of the great ironies of our time is that the enviormental movement and BIG OIL are in cahoots together.
This is why there has been no new refining compacity
added to the USA in over 30 years. Just try to build a petroleum refinery anywhere in the USA. The 10+ years of litigation would add another 20 to 30% to the price . The benefits of restricted refining compacity to big oil's bottom line is clear.

Why, as an oil company, should I build a new refinery

(1) for a market with a revenue structure conditioned by marginal cost (i.e. facilities of all competitors partly of fully depreciated)
(2) seeing that expanding existing refinieries gives me better returns than building a new one (known phenomenon of creeping capacity)
(3) knowing that the market is bound to decrease by 20-30% over the next decade (fuel efficiency and subsitution with natural gas)

A new refinery will cost you about 6 to 7 billion USD. You will never get back that money. Oil companies are not that stupid. They put their investments upstream and into natural gas and hand over part of their refining assets to midstream companies that have a difficult time to survive.

Markets are more efficient than anyone can imagine, and - lucky enough - oil companies pay more attention to change than car makers.